Friday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's three at Epsom from 6/1 to 16/1

• Tony is swerving some races but has three big bets

• Back Rhoscolyn at 6/17.00 to kick us off

• Two selections in the 15:45 priced at 7/18.00 at 16/117.00

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I'm pretty sure I have made this point before but it is worth re-stating, with the Derby meeting on our doorsteps - now that is a very 1970s phrase - and Royal Ascot around the corner.

Don't feel the need to bet just because it is a big race.

Epsom - 16:30 - No Bet

Luckily, I am given the freedom to tip only as I punt, and that struck home when I first started looking at the Oaks in any meaningful depth on Monday.

I couldn't see an ante-post punt then, and I am struggling now, too.

The problem I have - if indeed it is a problem - is that I am a believer (though not a paid-up one) in what I saw from Savethelastdance at Chester, and everyone else should probably be, as well.

Now, whether you make her a bet at around 2.47/5 on the exchange is another matter altogether, but the startling visual impression at Chester was backed up by the times (the finishing splits indicated she was actually quickening as she went through the line, which is something of a rarity, I gather) and her pedigree suggests this much faster ground ought not to be a barrier to success.

Actually, at this point, let's get the expected ground out of the way.

It is good (good to firm in places) at the moment and, while Epsom have been watering for a while, the BHA and course updates suggest they haven't overdone it in volume terms.

So, with a dry forecast, maybe it won't ride on the easy side of good for the start of racing on Friday after all (that was my working assumption earlier in the week and I suspect that of others, too), unless they ramp up the irrigation levels from hereon in.

Back to the Oaks though, and the price of the favourite.

I will let her win unbacked at the current odds, not least because I also have a lot of time for the John and The Real Slim Thady Gosden's pair of fillies in Soul Sister and Running Lion.

I am telling you nothing the market isn't, as they are second and third favourites, but it is hard not to be impressed by their trial wins over 1m2f. If their speed can be effectively stretched out to 1m4f, they could just give Savethelastdance a race.

As I said earlier in the week, I think we could be dealing with three Group 1 fillies here (maybe over shorter trips down the line for the Gozza duo, as their stamina would worry me if the favourite gets into top gear and properly rolling from 4f out), so that pretty much slams the door on an each-way play elsewhere.

Dance In The Grass was actually a possible but she was a surprise no-show on Wednesday morning and David Menuisier doesn't look like he is going to get his over-watering wish for his promising Prix Saint-Alary fourth Heartache Tonight.

Bright Diamond might be the best of the rest outside of the Big Three, but I am content to watch the Classic without a bet. I would expect Savethelastdance's stablemates Red Riding Hood and Be Happy to be on the front end (along with Heartache Tonight) but it wouldn't surprise me if the favourite was in the lead soon after halfway.

And stayed there.

Epsom - 14:00 - No Bet

I usually sit on the sidelines in 2yo races at this time of the year as well, and trying to solve the 12-runner Woodcote Stakes at 14:00 involves a lot of guesswork, as only two have raced more than twice, before we factor in the course, draw and ground for these inexperienced youngsters.

And I imagine we could get different run-styles toom because of where they are berthed, as a prominent ride from a low draw can pay dividends here (that said last year outside draws dominated, with 9-6-12-4-10-9 the first six home, though they were the fancied runners).

So the pace angle is difficult to call, and there is nothing stand-out on the clock in here either, so I can leave well alone.

Those who have joined in the Coventry punt on Asadna will want to see a decent showing from the 12-length Ripon runner-up, 20/121.00 chance Fifty Grand Slater, who travelled well on the rail for the early part of that race, but he has been done no favours with stall 10.

If anything, the fellow Nick Bradley-owned Maymay, second at Newmarket last time and the only filly in here - she gets 11lb from the winning colts, and the Bradley posse won this race with a filly in 2021 - makes more appeal at 14/115.00 plus from stall two, but it is a race easily left alone.

Epsom - 14:35 - Back Rhoscolyn

Rhoscolyn looked the obvious one from the outset in the 1m handicap at 14:35 but, even so, you had to be a tad disappointed with prices ranging from 5/16.00 to 7/18.00 the prices started to appear on Wednesday.

Mind you, the initial 7/18.00 and 13/27.50 didn't last long, so maybe I had unrealistic expectations. I usually do.

The case for him is so easy to make though, even if he will need luck from stall 10. But that could be negated by the pace in here likely to come from 2, 4, 7 and 8, and he can get a nice tow into it.

The handicapper has dropped him 4lb for his two runs this season, and the Ascot run last time can be readily excused by his track position (he didn't run badly either), the ground will be in his favour and he is one from one around here.

The course win saw him blitz home by 4 lengths over 7f at this meeting two seasons ago and he is just 3lb higher here on a mark of 95, some 11lb below his rating peak of 106 after his Glorious Goodwood second in 2021 (he likes it there).

And, as he is at home on good to soft and good to firm,the watering can is not a factor.

My dilemma, as per usual, was the price.

And we are dealing with a David O'Meara horse here, a stable that I cannot fathom (granted they get their share of big handicap successes and can be streaky-good) and who just seem to throw a lot of spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks on any given day.

I did give in and back him each way at 6/17.00 with extra places on Wednesday - he just stuck out like Suranne Jones' nose (I have been watching Doctor Foster recently, and other big hooters are available on request) - so I'd be a bit of hypocrite if I didn't put him up at a similar price here.

The Sportsbook's 7/18.00 about him also went around 2pm on Wednesday, but the current 6/17.00 is obviously acceptable to me.

Do I think he would win this race more times than one in seven? Yes.

One in six? Probably.

So I have to recommend a bet at 6/17.00 with the Sportsbook win-only (they are currently paying only three places but I imagine that will change as we get nearer the off).

It's a competitive enough handicap but I really don't fancy many at all against him, so I'd probably make him a 5/16.00 poke, as indicated above. Not a massive margin but enough to get me interested.

Epsom - 15:10 - No Bet

Earlier in the week, I thought the Coronation Cup at 15:10 would be underwhelming but how wrong I was.

We have Westover, Hurricane Lane and Emily Upjohn in here and they bring proper Group 1 form to the party (as well as all three having been placed in a Classic over course and distance) and they are hard to split on form.

None are bullet-proof though and this is could be very tactical, so they will all be hoping Point Lonsdale has the pace to set up a good gallop for them to aim at (he was very hard work at Chester, though), or Tunnes' jockey can find the ground pleasing enough for him to revert to forward-going tactics and dish it out from the front, as he did when winning his Group 1 by 10 lengths on heavy in November.

The International Classifications, which have Tunnes just 1lb inferior to Westover, the same horse as Hurricane Lane and 2lb better than Emily Upjohn (before the sex allowance is factored), tell you the German horse is an insulting price at 16/117.00 and upwards on the fixed-odds front, even factoring in his seeming relish for bad ground.

And trainer Peter Schiergen, he of Danedream fame, is no mug, having bought Rocchigiani over to win at Goodwood last year.

I suspect I will not be alone in ruing the fact that I am not going to put him up, given the ground concerns and the fact that connections are apparently making noises that he still may need this (sounds like getting your excuses in early to me as he surely won't be coming here undercooked, especially as he ran in late April), but I'll let him pass.

I am a big fan of Westover and think he is the most likely winner if on his best behaviour, but 2/13.00 is easy to resist.

Epsom - 15:45 - Back Majestic

The only other race on ITV is the 1m2f handicap at 15:45 and I am playing two here win-only with the Sportsbook. Back Majestic at 7/18.00 and Toshizou at 16/117.00.

I'd play them both at 5/16.00 and 14/115.00 upwards myself.

I thought Majestic was a massive eye-catcher - if I kept the ultimate bookie's friend, by that I mean a Tracker, he'd have been straight in it - when a length fourth to Marhaba The Champ at York last time.

Considering he was relatively slowly away, and needed to be rousted along early - he was last turning in - he did remarkably well to finish so close, especially as he made his challenge widest on the far side, while the first three home were nearest the stands' rail.

You can mark that run up considerably then and, if he can keep tabs on these better from stall two and get the breaks (clearly not a given around here), then he is handicapped to win again off 92.

That is only 6lb higher than when a dominant winner of the Cambridgeshire last September and this is his ground.

Epsom - 15:45 - Back Toshizou

Toshizou, another Nick Bradley syndicate horse, let me down over 1m at York, as he never got into the race after being dropped in towards the rear from his wide draw in 17.

He made some modest late gains but maybe he simply wants 1m2f again. His sole run at the trip to date was a fair fourth to an embryonic Kyprios at Cork in 2021 and he is by a certain Galileo, after all.

He was dropped 2lb for the York run and that surely makes him dangerously well treated off a mark of 90 if he can put it all together. He had shaped well off 93 over 1m and 1m1f at Newmarket prior to York, and hopefully Hollie Doyle can deliver high, wide and handsome in the final furlong.

Wide, and not the clever inside route, would be good, Holls, as I can't take another hard luck story on a tricky track after Yacowlef at Goodwood last weekend. Actually your husband was on that.

Frustratingly, the 25/126.00 about him went about an hour ago, and then the 20/121.00 disappeared about 10 minutes later to further darken my mood, but the current price remains sufficiently peachy.

The three fixed-odds recommendations are all trading at a touch bigger on the Exchange as this column goes live, and the prices are also generally available in the wider marketplace (indeed Toshizou is 20/1 in a place) so this is not a case of early cherry-picking, more the fact that I am not around first thing tomorrow morning to ensure the prices are accurate as it goes live.

Go well.

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