Epsom Oaks: Tony Calvin's early look at Friday's Fillies' Classic

• Tony gives his thoughts on all 15 Oaks entries

• Positive words for the market leaders

• Heartache and Diamond considered at bigger odds

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We haven't had a real turn-up in the Oaks since Qualify won at 50/151.00 in 2015 - though only two favourites, at 10/111.91 and 11/102.11, have obliged since, none of the other winners have returned in double figures - and I strongly suspect the outsiders will find it very hard to get a look-in on Friday.

Now, no-one likes a wild swing at a price better than me but the problem I have is that we are probably dealing with three proper Group 1 fillies in Savethelastdance, Soul Sister and Running Lion (even if their current ratings and body of work do not yet reflect that) and their 12 rivals are going to have to excel to even get into the Oaks frame.

I guess that means I should be tipping Running Lion each way at the industry-best 13/27.50 with the Betfair Sportsbook, but there is a potential negative there, too.

More of her shortly.

Impressive Chester winner the Oaks favourite

Anyway, let's start with the favourite Savethelastdance, 6/52.20 with the Sportsbook and 2.3611/8 on the exchange.

This filly's performance in winning the Cheshire Oaks by 22 lengths had the time bandits feinting with joy after they crunched the sectionals - sexionals indeed - as her finishing splits were off the charts.

She was never as strong, or going as quickly, as when she powered through the line, and rarely have I heard Ryan Moore as impressed with a performance in the immediate aftermath of a race.

I know that Chester win came in heavy ground but she is by Galileo out of a Grade 1 1m2f winner on firm ground in the States, so god help the rest if she is even better on a quicker surface. She took a while to get going last time but, boy, did the girl finish.

At this stage, I should mention the ground.

The going at Epsom is currently good. Epsom won't have seen any rain for a good while and they started watering there on May 17th, and they have put on 25mm since.

They stuck 5mm on the track on Saturday, the same amount on Monday, and they are "monitoring thereafter".

We should applaud Epsom and Andrew Cooper for that thorough update - with only 25mm put on in the last 12 days I am very surprised it isn't quicker than good - and I imagine we haven't seen the last of the watering given as a dry (if not particularly hot) week is forecast.

Like it or not, I reckon they may be describing it as on the easy side of good on Thursday morning.

We've been here before

The race shapes as though it is going to be a matter of stamina versus speed as the favourite's main market rivals, Soul Sister and Running Lion, look speedy models. And that will not be lost on the Coolmore crew.

Soul Sister blew out over 7f in the Fred Darling on bad ground first time out but she had gears to spare when blitzing her rivals from the 3f pole in the steadily-run Musidora.

No sooner had the time bandits came to after Savethelastdance's power-packed win at Chester, then they were going all light-headed and very giddy once again when analysing her finishing splits at York.

Rapido.

If she stays 1m4f - and she is by Frankel out of a 1m2f Group 2-winning mare, and she is a full sister to a 1m6f winner, so that gives her supporters plenty of hope - then her match-up with the favourite could be an Enable-Rhododendron type scenario.

Two proper Group 1 fillies from the Gosden and O'Brien stables going at it in the Oaks. I appreciate Enable was the Queen and romped home by 5 lengths but Rhodendron was no lowly Maid-In-Waiting, as she went on win two Group 1s afterwards, over 1m and 1m2f.

Could that be the speedier path that Soul Sister excels at?

Form, and maybe stamina, doubts for Lion

But do John And The Real Slim Thady have the winner in Running Lion? Very possibly.

Now, on pedigree, you can pick several holes in her fully staying 1m4f, albeit that concept is obviously relative. I could finish a marathon if you gave me a day.

I suppose a fair part of the stamina question mark over Running Lion is based in the fact that her sire Roaring Lion didn't see out the Derby trip as well as two of his rivals back in 2018 - though he was beaten only 2 lengths - and went on to win four Group 1s over a mile and 1m2f afterwards.

And the dam was never tried over 1m2f.

You can see a scenario where Savethelastdance makes this a brutal test of stamina from some way out and drags the stamina out of her but, visually, you would have thought there is every chance of this filly staying 1m4f given the way she finished off her race over 1m2f in soft in the Pretty Polly last time.

However, she wasn't beating much there, for all she won as she liked, as the second only beat one home at odds at 2/51.40 in a Newmarket novice next time.

The third hasn't been out since but the fourth was well stuffed in a German Group 3 on Sunday and the sixth was beaten 5 1/2 lengths off a mark of 74 recently.

Even so, if she is ridden to be placed, I think she will be placed - she did make a big impression at Newmarket - but the problem is that they will surely go for the win and chasing the favourite in what turns out to be a real stamina tussle could see her pay for it close home.

They were still talking about keeping her to a mile after her Kempton win last month, and they were chatting in terms of the extended 1m2f of the French Oaks after Newmarket, so her each-way supporters could be watching the final furlong or so through shaking hands.

I have talked myself out of backing and tipping her each-way, which seemed a certainty when I started researching this column.

So let's see if I have missed a Qualify-like lurker.

Aidan's other five and the Godolphin one

Aidan has five of the other 12 in the race, but Jackie Oh ran in the Irish 1,000 Guineas on Sunday, so she is surely a very likely no-show and neither she of Boogie Woogie look 1m4f fillies to my untrained eye, anyway.

The 95-rated Warm Heart will have to improve the thick-end of two stone on her 1m2f Listed Newbury win to this (she is by Galileo out of a mare who excelled at 6f, so the extra 2f is no gimme for her either), and surely Blue Wind third Red Riding Hood, blinkered last time, isn't up to this class.

The AOB filly, Be Happy, could be suited to this test but it takes a fair leap of faith to even see her turning around her Lingfield Oaks trial form with Eternal Hope, who has been supplemented for this race.

The Godolphin filly is the fourth favourite here at 18.017/1 and she did it nicely enough at Lingfield, beating Be Happy 1 ¾ lengths, but that looked a decidedly modest trial in Classic-winning terms.

Will Tonight cause Heartache for Big Three?

Elsewhere, I am seeing plenty of fillies who are not necessarily bred to see out 1m2f, let alone 1m4f in this grade, though their run-style gives some hope.

They include Guineas fourth and fifth Caernarfon and Dance In The Grass - though the latter's paper claims are easily the stronger of that pair, and her jockey said she was crying out for a trip after Newmarket - and Lingfield Oaks trial fifth Bright Diamond.

Newbury maiden runner-up Maman Joon may well stay 1m4f well, but surely not in this grade, and Musidora fifth Sea Of Roses will have to improve enormously for the extra distance if taking her chance.

I did actually like the way Bright Diamond shaped when fifth to Eternal Hope, as she stayed on well enough there over a 1m4f trip that on pedigree she shouldn't really get, and she probably won't in a more strongly-run and classier race, as this obviously promises to be.

I did consider her though, as the Fillies Mile third was very weak in the betting for that Lingfield return, and her jockey gave the outside to no-one there, though she was drawn highest there, so Sam James didn't have much option, to be fair.

However, the Sportsbook clearly saw the same promise in the run and make her 40/141.00 when 66/167.00 is available elsewhere, so that possible betting route was closed.

As was the case with Heartache Tonight. The odds-compilers want to keep her onside at 20/121.00, and rightly so I think as she looks the most likely filly to shake up the Big Three, though Cristian Demuro is set to keep the ride and he has never ridden at Epsom (and he has only ever ridden at three UK courses).

She is a half-sister to the stable's excellent middle-distance performer Wonderful Tonight, a dual Group 1 winner, including over 1m6f, and, even though she is by the 7f winner Recorder (though he was retired after his juvenile campaign), all she seems to do is stay.

Now, I don't have access to French sectionals (or, more accurately, I am not able to steal copy from people who write about them) but they looked to be very steady away in the 1m2f Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary last time and she was coming back for more at the line after being ridden prominently and getting outpaced when they quickened.

I can definitely see her improving for the first try at 1m4f, under a more aggressive ride, but there may be a reason she has not raced on anything quicker than soft in her three starts and, even with the most extreme watering imaginable strategy this week, they may decide not to run her on what could be quickening ground come Friday afternoon.

In short, that was a long-winded way of saying no bet for now - usual rules apply, so I make no apologies for that - but hopefully some of the above discussion, which included mentions of all 15 entries, has been of some worth.

Back tomorrow with an assessment of the Derby.

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