Friday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin has a 10/1 bet for the first day of the Guineas meeting

• Day 1 of Newmarket's Guineas meeting

• Goodwood also on the box meaning eight races on ITV

• Tony Calvin has a 10/1 tip in the 14:25 race

It is currently good to firm (good in places) at Newmarket but the forecast possibly presents a slight corridor of uncertainty as regards the going, with rain due in from Friday through to Sunday (10mm in total according to the main site I use, but that seems to be changing by the hour).

It is a good job that rain is on its way or else the small fields across the eight-race card - five is the lowest, 10 is the highest - could have been whittled down further.

The five ITV races at Newmarket were already tricky enough, as non-handicaps are not really my punting bag, especially when they involve lightly-raced and unexposed 3yos at this time of the year.

Race-fit Waipiro could get his own way from the front

Newmarket, 13:15

First up is a 1m2f Listed race at 13:15 for 3yos, a race in which all eight are winners and three are course and distance winners.

Salt Bay and Victory Dance are the form horses, with the former placed in Group 1 company at two, but it doesn't take a stretch of imagination to see any of these coming up to their level.

The vibes are that the likes of Sir Michael Stoute's Circle Of Fire, owned by The King (not Elvis), may be one to bridge the class gap in time - he was a general 7/1 when the betting opened on Wednesday - but it is too much of a guessing game for me to play.

There isn't a lot of pace in here (from the limited evidence available, admittedly), so maybe recent course winner Waipiro, 9/1 with the Sportsbook, could get the run of the race from the front and will look to use his guaranteed race fitness.

Classy race but no bet in the Mile

Newmarket, 13:50

The rescheduled Group 2 bet365 Mile field has shrunk from 11 to five at the overnight stage but it is still a very classy renewal with the likes of Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Native Trail and dual Group 1 runner-up Light Infantry in the line-up, and that pair predictably dominate the betting.

I could waffle on about the merits of all five runners but the conclusion would be the same. Good race, no bet. If you are looking for the pace angle again, perhaps 5/1 poke Mutasaabeq could be a back-to-lay proposition in this small field. Mind you, he has a job on with his 3lb penalty.

Encouraging return means I'm playing at 10/1

Newmarket, 14:25 - Tony's Tip: Crystallium @ 10/1

I originally thought the same of the eight-runner 7f Listed race at 14:25 - i.e. no bet - though the more I looked the more I was tempted by Crystallium at double-figure quotes. The Sportsbook are 10/1 about her.

I succumbed.

The 3/1 chance Shouldvebeenaring is undoubtedly the solid one - though Charlie Appleby's unexposed recent course winner Majestic Pride heads the betting at a short 7/4 with the Sportsbook - but Crystallium shaped well enough on her return when seventh in heavy going in the Fred Darling, and the better ground here should suit her a lot better.

Billy Loughnane is retained for the ride, despite not being able to claim once again, and his filly should appreciate 7f and good ground (her two best efforts have come under these conditions), and she acquitted herself well in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes over track and trip last October.

I may well back her each-way on the day if all eight stand their ground but I am happy to back her at 11.010/1 or bigger to small stakes win-only on the exchange now, or with that 10s with the Sportsbook.

The less rain the better for her, I feel, and, with Peter Chapple-Hyam having so few horses these days, I would expect her to strip a lot fitter for Newbury. And, being the only filly in the race, the 5lb sex allowance she gets can hopefully prove crucial.

I'll Watch the market before making Final decision on well-treated runner

Newmarket, 15:35

The other Group race on the card, the five-runner Jockey Club Stakes at 15:35 featuring 2021 Irish Derby/St Leger winner Hurricane Lane, tried in first-time cheekpieces, with a lot to prove after his Newbury return, isn't a betting race either.

West Wind Blows looks the more secure play, but he is making his return and, more importantly, he is only 11/8 (though bigger on the exchange).

Newmarket, 15:00

The other ITV race is the 7f handicap at 15:00 and even this is struggling for numbers, the field having halved since the five-day stage and each-way punters are left staring at the perilous dead-eight once again.

The one horse I had earmarked as a possible bet wasn't confirmed for the race on Wednesday morning , and it is a very tricky contest to call.

Darkness and Star Of Orion definitely have it in them to be winning off their current marks but they are frustrating types - the former was again disappointing when made favourite at Ripon last weekend - and Final Watch is possibly a more reliable type after a promising return to action here last month.

He looked to lose around four lengths coming out of the gates that day, and was beaten just over three, so I think the handicapper has treated him well by dropping him 1lb for that effort.

Actually, it isn't quite true that he is a reliable type, as he ran poorly on two starts at the back-end, but if he can build on that return and reproduce the form of his clear-cut Ascot defeat of Persuasion last September then a mark of 88 is highly exploitable. He also won the 3yo 7f May handicap here in 2021.

And the pace likely to be supplied by The Gatekeeper and Lord Rapscallion should also suit his closing style.

The big problem is I was wanting a bit bigger than the Sportsbook's 7/2 - I had a minimum of 5/1 in my mind, in fact, before the prices started filtering through on Wednesday, perhaps over-optimistically - so I can't tip him as it stands, and his small yard hasn't had a winner for a while, too (a minor concern, granted).

If he hits 5s (currently around 4s on the exchange), then I am a backer.

Nothing appeals at Goodwood

We also have three ITV races from Goodwood. The going there is currently soft (good to soft in places) and, like Newmarket, it starts to get pretty wet there from Friday onwards for a few days. Up to 14mm on Friday and Saturday perhaps, but that has been changing regularly, too.

I can quickly pass over the 13-runner 2yo novice at 13:30 - only four have raced before and the ground could become pretty testing for the youngsters on a tricky track, though it is no surprise that Ethandun is the early favourite given Eve Johnson-Houghton is three from three with her 2yos this season - and the tight-knit 1m4f Listed fillies race at 14:05, a contest in which six make their seasonal bows, did little for me, either.

The excellent form of the Harry Eustace yard does make his stable-switcher Alaroos interesting at 14/1, though Time Lock dominates the market at evens.

Once again, it came to the handicap at 14:35 to possibly provide a potential bet on the card but nothing in that sprint stood out for me either.

I make no apologies for finding just the one bet in the eight ITV races, especially with a big weekend in store.

Good luck.