Friday ITV Racing Tips: Jehangeer can win at 25/1 says Tony Calvin

• Big-price ante-post tips stand their ground

• King's Lynn now much shorter than advised

• Jehangeer a fresh 25/126.00 tip at Newmarket

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Small fields have worked in our favour on Friday, as both of this column's 20/121.00 ante-post picks have thankfully been confirmed for their races - let's just hope they make it out of the stalls now, and at least they will be facing the right way if they do - but let's take the ITV races in chronological order.

Newmarket - 14:25: No Bet

Let's kick off at Newmarket - the ground is currently good after a dry warm Wednesday, but I don't know what to expect from hereon in as the sites disagree violently on how much rain to expect now - where only one of the four terrestrial contests have more than six runners.

The 1m2f Listed race at 14:25 has five runners and, taking away the outsider Brave Call, only 4lb separates the others on official ratings.

I give them all a chance, so I thought the way into this race was to possibly look to lay the favourite Endless Victory at around 2.26/5 on the exchange, and effectively having the field running for you at 5/61.84.

You will probably get done shorter.

He is actually the lowest-rated of the above quartet, but that sexy unbeaten profile from a top, in-form yard, and pedigree (he is a brother to the Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter), never fails to dampen a price.

Granted, he probably did very well to narrowly win a slowly-run novice under a penalty here last month (the third won at 2/91.22 at Southwell earlier this week) and he did look full of running at the line.

However, subsequent Derby chat from connections - in the immediate post-race interview Charlie Appleby namechecked the Lingfield trial as a possible target - was always going to see him priced up far below what the formbook suggests he should be.

We are talking about a 97-rated colt here before we get carried away.

This may be nonsense chat but take away the numbers and the names alongside the horses and focus on the form they have achieved, and they should be nearer 3s the four in my artificial world.

I won't be tipping up a lay here, as I don't recommend short prices (anything sub-3s as a rule, let alone odds-on) but that's the way I will play this myself to small stakes.

Newmarket - 15:00: Saint Lawrence advised ante-post @ 20/121.00

Saint Lawrence is the first up of the 20s ante-post selections in the 7f handicap at 15:00, and obviously I am happy with the position there.

I don't know what to make of the cheekpieces replacing the blinkers he has worn for his last five starts - he wore them once for his previous trainer and only beat one home - but Archie Watson re-applied blinkers to good effect when the horse won the Wokingham, so we will trust in his handler.

I don't have any option but to, to be honest. For reference, Watson is 23 from 226 since 2017 when putting pieces on his horses for the first time, which is nothing flash.

Other potential negatives are the form of the yard (though they had a welcome winner on Wednesday, they are not running well) and the fact that they could be targeting the Wokingham again with him, and are using this, and other pre-Royal Ascot starts, to get him down a few pounds ahead of a bigger pot.

We all know the game we play and the chances we take when backing horses, especially when dealing with high-level handicappers.

There are plenty of positives too, not least this is a 25k-to-the-winner handicap in its own right.

Firstly, he gets in here off the ceiling mark of 107 in this 0-105 - horses rated 2lb above the band are allowed in - which hopefully means his class will out.

He is relatively ground-versatile, so the weather isn't a big concern either way (Timeform called it soft when he was a narrow third in the Group 1 Prix Maurice De Gheest, and the Wokingham win off 100 came on good to firm) and I'd ignore his reappearance run in the Abernant, as nothing came from off the pace that day and he probably wasn't drawn ideally either.

The fact that he was dropped 1lb for that, and became eligible for this handicap, will hopefully prove crucial.

I always thought of him as a 6f horse but his record over 7f is actually pretty good (form figures of 1441632, and the French Group 1 run was over an extended 6f), and he did finish a good third in the Palace House Stakes over 5f here in 2022.

I am not inclined to press up, but he is 11/112.00 with the Sportsbook now (they are paying four places), so at least we have squeezed a bit of juice out of the fixed-odds market.

He is 16s in a place elsewhere, mind you, and the exchange win-only price on the day may paint a very different picture, but predicting those late moves is nigh-on impossible these days.

As for the draw, he is berthed in four, and there is pace around in him in five and six. However, I am worried by the speed in 11, 12 and 13.

I can obviously fully see the case for plenty of others, most obviously the three market leaders, but Final Watch is undeniably interesting at a double-figure price.

He actually opened at 14/115.00 in two places on Wednesday (one quickly trimmed into the general 10s, the other is standing firm) and that underestimated his chance, as he shaped very well on his last two starts last season (he had no chance against a rail bias at Ascot on his final outing) and he is back on the same mark as his last two successes, on the July course in 2023 and at Ascot in 2022.

He actually went off 100/304.30 favourite when last of eight in this race last season.

The obvious negative is the lack of a recent run - both of the stable's winners in 2024 were race-fit, as was their Yarmouth short-head second last month - and, potentially his draw in one, so in the final analysis those factors put me off at the Sportsbook's 10/111.00, allied to the price.

Newmarket - 15:35: Back Jehangeer

The six-runner 7f Listed race at 15:35 is clearly another very trappy betting heat, but I thought Alaskan Gold and Jehangeer were the ones to concentrate on at their current Sportsbook prices of 7s and 25s, both generally available prices.

The latter has a lot to find, but 3yos can and do progress markedly at this time of the year, and I thought this brother to the stable's dual Group 1-winning sprinter Hello Youmzain shaped well at York on his final start over 6f, which suggested this longer trip was well worth trying. He also met a fair bit of trouble before getting a clear run on the rail there in the final furlong or so. Go and take a look.

That York Listed race form is okay too, with the winner Purosangue running well to finish third in a Group 3 at Ascot on Wednesday and the runner-up, Esquire, winning the Greenham.

I wouldn't be too perturbed that the owner also has Queen Of Zafeen in here, as that filly, from another yard, had to take her chance in this winnable black-type event.

And the fact that they allowed him to take his chance in the Gimcrack (where he went off a 12s poke) suggests that they rate him better than a 93-rated horse.

Back him at 25/126.00 win-only with the Sportsbook. I don't usually play in these types of races, but the price seems worth the risk here.

Alaskan Gold has a more obvious form chance on his Doncaster second on heavy ground last term, and he was probably disadvantaged by racing furthest away from the near rail when a close fifth in the Greenham, although the runner-up El Bodon did nothing for the form at Ascot on Wednesday.

Those two pieces of form make him very fairly priced at 7s, and I considered a saver, but I'll throw just the one big-priced dart.

Newmarket - 16:10: No Bet

The lead is surely Outbox's for the taking in the Group 2 1m4f Jockey Club Stakes at 16:10 - he made the running in this in 2022 and 2023 - and I could see why there was money around for him on Wednesday. He opened up at 40s in a place, but 20s is the best around now and he is 14/115.00 with the Sportsbook.

In truth, you'd be disappointed if a 9yo, with something to find, could beat the likes of a Time Lock or the 4yo Naqeeb in a Group 2, but stranger things have happened in these talent-drained times.

I can't see a bet at the current Sportsbook prices, though.

Goodwood - 14:40: No Bet

ITV and Goodwood have done the right thing by moving an original terrestrial race, a three-runner conditions race, to 13:30 on the front of the card and on to Racing TV only.

Well played, both.

They have kept the eight-runner 2yo race at 14:40 on their schedule but it really isn't a betting race for me, with four newcomers in the field and the others having just mustered a mere five races between them.

Goodwood - 15:15: No Bet

The 6f handicap at 15:15 isn't much easier to solve, but we look assured of a bit of a burn-up on the front end.

One of the speedsters, Many A Star, is 2lb well-in here after a recent second at Leicester and he has to be considered, even if he will surely be taken on for the lead.

The pace set-up could favour last year's winner Spanish Star, who ran a cracker on his return at Newbury when coming home first on the far side in a bunch finish and who hails from a small stable in good nick.

Now, this is a competitive handicap and he is a 9yo, but he has clearly returned in great heart, he is a four-time course winner who loves downhill tracks and he doesn't mind testing ground.

But his general price is pretty much what you'd expect - both the bigger prices about him and Many A Star, my two against the field, were taken on Wednesday - and, furthermore, yet more rain could see this race cut up to seven runners of less, from nine.

Oh, and heavy ground, is what I am expecting, by the way.

They have had 13.8mm in the last 24 hours - they got away lightly with that given the wild weather we had in the South in the early hours - and potentially they could get another 12mm from 7pm on Thursday evening into Friday. It is currently heavy, soft in places.

Goodwood - 15:50: King's Lynn advised ante-post @ 20/121.00

In an exceptionally rare moment of clarity and insight (i.e. lucky guesswork), I called the 5f handicap at 15:50 correctly on Monday.

Sorry, I sound like a Boom merchant before the race has even been run, so apologies. And they still have to make it to the start, so it has over 24 hours to go badly wrong.

Basically, I noted King's Lynn, Desperate Hero (trainer is flying), and Dream Composer, who won this race last season, were the only three of the 15 at the five-day stage that were proven on soft ground, and you would be sitting pretty on Friday if you had them running for you against the field.

They were priced up at 20s, 16s and 10s respectively by the Sportsbook at the time.

Well, they are now best-industry prices of 5/16.00, 11/26.50 and 5/23.50, with only two rivals in opposition, and one of those, Harry Brown, is 1lb out of the handicap and has no form on even soft ground.

And the other, Clarendon House, has been withdrawn on officially soft ground, and similarly twice on good to soft, in his career.

Either may well run (if only to come down a pound or two), win and spoil the party - Clarendon House was only just touched off by Raasel in this race in 2022, and he has to greatly feared if running, and pace-wise this is a very hard race to call - but I prefer my initial three in the conditions, and King's Lynn in particular.

The 7yo has been dropped a generous 3lb to a mark of 94 after what I thought was a promising enough return at Bath under today's 3lb claimer, and he improved massively from his first to second start last season.

He would take some stopping off this mark on that second-start Chester runner-up last May, when a length second off a mark of 109.

He also won the Group 2 Temple Stakes second time up in 2022.

He is a 7yo now and has been coming down the weights for a reason, but he is obviously light years away from his peak rating of 111, and some of his better efforts have been with plenty of dig. And trainer Andrew Balding (see stable form below) is in fair nick too, with a Wednesday treble.

Best of luck. And watch that Newmarket weather.

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GOING

Newmarket: Good - sites disagree about how much rain is coming in next 24 hours (some 5mm, others far more)

Goodwood: Heavy, soft in places (after 13.8mm in last 24 hours) - could be another 12mm from 7pm this evening into Friday

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR (for Newmarket/Goodwood cards)

Archie Watson - cheekpieces (first run in that headgear for him) 23-226 (since 2017)

Charlie Fellowes - visor 4-60 (2014)

Daniel and Claire Kubler - blinkers 0-4 (2022)

Kubler alone blinkers - 2-27 (2012)

PACE MAPS

2.25pm Newmarket: Caviar Heights, Endless Victory (prominent), Sayedaty Sadaty (prom). Whip Cracker (prom)

2.40pm Goodwood (minimal evidence): Lady Lightning, Brosay

3.00pm Newmarket: Noble Dynasty (prom), Dark Thirty, Thunder Ball (prom), Lethal Levi (prom), Chola Empire

3.15pm Goodwood: Many A Star. Indian Creek, Live In The Moment, Alcazan, Dayman?

3.35pm Newmarket - no confirmed front-runner: Alaskan Gold (can be prom), Boiling Point (prom), Queen Of Zafeen (prom)

3.50pm Goodwood: Clarendon House (prom). Desperate Hero (prom). Harry Brown ? (has made all in past on all-weather)

4.10pm Newmarket: Outbox, Castle Way (prom), King Of Conquest (prom)

BALLOTED OUT: N/A

TRAINER FORM - for all with entries in this week's ITV races (does not include Thursday's results)

Excellent: Jack Channon, Andrew Balding, Charlie Appleby

Good: Richard Hughes, Karl Burke, Paul and Oliver Cole, Ed Walker, Harry Charlton, Patrick Chamings, Jamie Osborne, Charlie Johnston

Fair: Eve Johnson Houghton, Ed Dunlop, Richard Hannon, Jack Jones (borderline moderate), Diego Das, William Haggas (though still not up to usual standard), Robert Cowell, David Simcock, Philip McBride, William Stone, Kevin Ryan, Daniel and Claire Kubler. John Butler, Alice Haynes, Roger Teal (not many runners). Dominic Ffrench Davis

Moderate: Heather Main, Archie Watson (though a winner at Wolverhampton on Wednesday), Nicola and David Barron (though a well-backed 4-1 winner at weekend), Julie Camacho (though 28-1 winner this month), Roger Varian (for the stable might, though they could finally be hitting their stride now). Mick Appleby, James Evans (though not many runners, and five winners in total in 2024), Henry Candy

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Now read Ryan Moore on his Friday rides at Newmarket here.

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