Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: 20/1 bets for Friday at Goodwood and Newmarket

• TC's antepost tips for Friday's ITV racing

• Ground-versatile Saint Lawrence is one to back at HQ

• King's Lynn could take some stopping at Goodwood

---

I woke up at silly o'clock on Monday morning, with nothing much to do, so I thought I would take a look at the ITV ante-post races on Friday that have been priced up while I wait for the weekend runners to land around 1:30pm.

The two Goodwood fillers on the ITV coverage wouldn't be the best - there are actually three terrestrial contests, but one is bizarrely a restricted 2yo novice, which obviously hasn't been priced up - so we will come to back to those at the end of the piece.

There is no point in doing my usual full list of double-entered horses, as that would be misleading with the weekend decs still to come.

So that has to be a concern for anyone punting at this point as knowing other options are crucial when betting ante-post. Minimising no-shows is a fair part of the tussle.

---

Newmarket Friday 14:25 - No bet

First up is the 55k 3yo 1m2f Listed race at 14:25, a race which has attracted a pitiful seven at the five-day stage. At least they are all jocked up at the moment.

Predictably enough, I don't have a betting opinion on the race, given the lightly-raced nature of the field. Godolphin's twice-raced unbeaten Endless Victory is the Sportsbook's 10/111.91 favourite, which seems rather on the short side to me.

Oh, I should tell you about the going.

The good to firm of last week has now morphed into good to soft after a wet weekend (18mm), and the forecast is for 6mm of rain on Wednesday and Thursday, with largely dry days otherwise. That forecast massively improved on Monday morning by the way, as Wednesday was looking very wet.

Newmarket Friday 15:00 - Back Saint Lawrence

The 7f handicap at 15:00 is much more up my strasse and we have another Charlie Appleby-trained horse Noble Dynasty heading the market at 5/23.50. Again, that is a very defensive price, as he is as big as 4s elsewhere.

They are top price of 20/121.00 about Saint Lawrence though, and that is not a bad price at all. Pretty good, in fact.

He gets in here off the ceiling mark of 107 in this 0-105 - horses rated 2lb above the band are allowed in - and he is set to tread the same Craven-Guineas meeting path that he did last year, only he raced in a 6f handicap last season (and he may well get a weekend entry, too).

He is relatively ground-versatile, so the weather isn't a big concern either way (he could probably do with less than forecast, though Timeform called it soft when he was a narrow third in the Group 1 Prix Maurice De Gheest) and I'd ignore his reappearance run in the Abernant, as nothing came from off the pace that day and he probably wasn't drawn ideally either.

He was dropped, a hopefully crucial, 1lb for that - which allows him to scrape into this handicap - and that could be very handy.

I always thought of him as a 6f horse but his record over 7f is actually pretty good (form figures of 1441632, and the French Group 1 run was over an extended 6f), and he did finish a good third in the Palace House Stakes here in 2022.

There is always the possibility he could be entered elsewhere this weekend - though I couldn't see another likely option - and, for what it is worth, Hollie Doyle is already booked.

You'd like to see Archie Watson in much better nick, but I am happy to recommend Saint Lawrence at 20/121.00 win-only with the Sportsbook all things considered, while readily accepting that these top-class handicappers can be only properly unleashed (a diplomatic phrase) until races like the Wokingham (which he won last year off 100) and Goodwood.

You may want to wait until we know what the weekend entries hold before backing him, but I'll personally go in small now and press up if this is his only immediate option. He is 20s in five places.

Newmarket Friday 15:35 - No bet

There are only eight in the 7f Listed race at 15:35, and it wouldn't be a race that would interest me at the moment.

However, be aware Bold Style and Indian Run, both 5/23.50 with the Sportsbook, are also in at Goodwood on Friday, while Usuario Amigo is in a maiden at Doncaster on Thursday. So I certainly wouldn't be laying Alaskan Gold and Queen Of Zafeen at 6s and 7s respectively.

There are just eight in the 125k Jockey Club Stakes and Time Lock is the narrow 5/23.50 favourite ahead of Lion's Pride and King Of Conquest. The prices are all around the shop in the wider marketplace for this, so a few layers reckon they have had a handle on likely running plans perhaps.

Unfortunately, I don't.

Goodwood Friday 15:50 - Back King's Lynn

Equality is the 4/15.00 favourite for Goodwood's 5f handicap at [15:50] - I couldn't have him in the likely conditions - and the going there is currently soft after 41mm from Friday into around noon on Sunday.

Another hefty 24mm combined could be on the way on Wednesday and Thursday too - other sites suggest less, to be fair - so we could be looking at heavy if they cop the full amount.

I don't think the market has reacted sufficiently to that weekend rain and the forecast, as not many of these will want it as deep as it is likely to be. This could cut up dramatically if the midweek rain lands, as predicted.

King's Lynn is fine on soft, as is Desperate Hero, a winner on heavy, and the jocked-up Dream Composer, who won this race last season. I thought the other 12 in the race would be struggling on soft ground to be honest, let alone heavy, though you may disagree.

That trio are priced up at 20s, 16s and 10s respectively by the Sportsbook, and King's Lynn is the most attractive, though I couldn't put you off any of the three in truth and you could be sitting pretty on Friday afternoon if you had them running for you against the field at their current odds.

Dream Composer is also in the 6f handicap at 14:05, though.

Again, I don't know if King's Lynn is a likely runner - he is currently also in the early closer at Newmarket on Saturday, which is off-putting - but the 7yo has been dropped a generous 3lb to a mark of 94 after what I thought was a promising enough return at Bath.

He improved massively from his first to second start last season, and he would take some stopping off this mark on his Chester second last May.

He is a 7yo now but he is obviously lights years away from his peak rating of 111, and some of his better efforts have been on soft, if not heavy.

Again, I considered waiting until I see what the weekend decs bring here. He ran poorly on his only previous start at Goodwood but, strangely perhaps, he has never raced at Newmarket. I was mighty tempted, though. By all three.

I decided that King's Lynn is worth a small bet at 20s now and, as with Saint Lawrence, maybe press up if and when that is confirmed as his only weekend entry this afternoon. He is that price in four places.

By the way, if he is kept in the early-closer on Saturday, he will have to run off his old mark of 97 there, so common sense suggests Goodwood off 94 should be the port of call.

Update at 1.45pm: King's Lynn hasn't been confirmed for the Newmarket race on Saturday.

There is nothing doing for me in the 10-runner 3yo 1m conditions race at 15:15, though Olympic Candle, Aramram, Bold Style, Grey Charger and Indian Run are already double-entered.

Little wonder the form horse Devil's Point, runner-up in the Futurity on heavy ground, is the early 11/102.11 favourite.

Back later today, or tomorrow morning maybe.

---

Now read Horse Racing Tips: Tafsir and Al can be a classy Ayr pair in Monday double

---