Cheltenham Paddy Power Gold Cup Big Race Verdict: Vincenzo to rule for red hot yard

• Key stats ahead of Cheltenham feature on Saturday

• Conditions to suit Vincenzo and Skelton has an each-way player

• Alan Dudman delivers the big race verdict 1-2-3 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup 

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Ground ahead and market movers for Saturday

Fifteen are in for the Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (14:20) as of Friday morning, participation and chances hinge still on the effects of Storm Claudia and what havoc the cruel weather mistress will bring. Banking on a horse with soft ground form has got to be the way to go surely, and while 15 means we miss out on the alchemy of 16, there are four places with the extra one on offer via the Sportsbook.

Jagwar is the current 10/34.33 favourite, and support for Paull Nicholls' Il Ridoto came, with the chaser backed from 7/18.00 into 11/26.50 and he bids to join a rather exclusive club of a dual Paddy Power Gold Cup winner - a feat achieved just five times, and Nicholls is seeking a third consecutive victory in this fencing prize.

Money to report also for the Paul Nolan-trained Conyers Hill, from 14/115.00 into 11/112.00.

Is there a stat horse with the winning profile?

Conyers Hill will have to buck the trend of Irish-trained winners (or non winners), as there has only ever been one in 23 editions.

Nicholls has an excellent record in the contest which enhances the claims of Il Ridoto, with the Ditcheat maestro having four winners and 14 placed horses from 49 runners.

Nine of the last 12 winners were from ages seven to nine, and 10 from 12 were rated 139+. Jagwar, the top weight is a six-year-old rated 148 with 12st, and nine of 12 have carried 11st or less.

Jagwar has the form at the track but also the weight

Jagwar is something of a course specialist with two wins at the track last term at the January meeting and then the Plate Handicap from 139. He starts his second season chasing from a 9lnb higher mark and has gone well fresh in the past, acts on soft and stays the 2m4f well.

He didn't always jump with fluency with his Festival victory and with the weight in the potential testing conditions, I wonder if the training duo of Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero will have him primed for what could merely be an opening battle in a campaign for a larger triumph?

Vincenzo unexposed at the trip for in-form Sam

Sam Thomas' Vincenzo has a very nice profile for the race as a seven-year-old, and that age has won the last two editions and a mighty 11 since the turn of the century.

Vincenzo enjoyed a fruitful novice campaign last term, winning twice and finishing second to Booster Bob in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury last spring. No one, not least of all, Vincenzo backers will need reminding of that performance from the Booster, who finished as if a bazooka was up his backside as he came from nowhere.

It was in-running carnage in that race with Booster Bob hitting 880.0879/1 in-running, Vincenzo 1.330/100 and Saint Segal 1.330/100.

Aside from the pain of the low trade and defeat, Vincenzo coped well with the quality of that field at Newbury, the trip and the going. He is unexposed at 2m4f and his jumping did improve after some less than fluent ones from his first two runs and then a mistake at the last when winning at Sandown. He can go to his left, and I feel Cheltenham will suit.

Thomas is also a trainer in form and has won with five of his last seven runners. Greenall & Guerriero however, with Jagwar in mind, are cold with just one winner from their last 24 winners at just 4%.

Skelton trio all with chances and the strongest could be Hoe Joly

Dan Skelton sent out 10 runners to Bangor earlier this week with five pulled up and the other five thrashed, so the yard will be hoping for better with Panic Attack, Hoe Joly Smoke and Riskintheground.

The latter is a big price at 25/126.00 on the Sportsbook and is a whopping price for a Grade 2 Novice winner at the track last April. He has fitness on his side, stays and has form in soft too.

Hoe Joly Smoke travelled ever so well at Cheltenham last month over further and I think he's a really interesting each-way play.

Three Card Brag was the winner of that staying chase at the October meeting, a chaser rated 149, yet Hoe Joly Smoke travelled like a well treated horse from 129 and also came from further back.

Panic Attack made the transfer from David Pipe to Skelton last term and had four runs for Skelton with a win in a mares' only chase at Windsor from 125 in soft. She will have to improve on that big time and out of the Skelton trio, preference would be for Hoe Joly Smoke.

The Irish Challenge

Irish trainers may have the time-honoured right to win Festival races, but the Paddy Power has eluded them mostly in the past 23 years.

Willie Mullins doesn't fancy this from his string of 850 Closutton inmates, probably plotting a race in Mexico or Brazil.

Gavin Cromwell has two and Henry De Bromhead has two. Our 'Enry's progressive Coming Up Easy has gorged on some easy opposition and has summer form with an August victory at Killarney. A new mark demands a lot more in this company,

The Other Mozzie for Cromwell could be better over shorter but his Thecompanysergeant is blessed with more stamina and his second to Jagwar in the Plate last term gives him an outside chance.

Pace map and tactics

Front-runners: Riskintheground, Vincenzo, Theatre Native, Hunter Legend.

Prominent: Bad, Il Ridoto, Coming Up Easy, Vincenzo, Theatre Native, Hunter Legend, Es Perfecto.

Mid-division: Jagwar, Thecompanysergeant, Il Ridoto.

Held-up: Jagwar, The Other Mozzie, Thecompanysergeant, Hoe Joly Smoke, Panic Attack.

Big Race 1-2-3 Verdict

I tipped Vincenzo in this week's antepost column and I like his profile as a seven-year-old second-season chaser for a yard in blistering form.

Joe Holy Smoke is an attractive each-way bet, another seven-year-old, with a low weight and form over further and in soft. Indeed, I think he's ahead of his mark and with four places can sneak into the frame with pace assured to make it a test.

I'd also throw in a Venetia Williams' runner in Hunter Legend - a good jumper and who goes from the front and acts in the mud (don't they all from that yard?).

He impressed with his fencing last winter at Leicester, and having tried 3m last term, it might have just stretched him and this intermediate trip will suit him as will the going.

1) Vincenzo
2) Joe Holy Smoke
3) Hunter Legend

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Now read more from Paul Nicholls and his latest blog here!

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