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Paddy Power Gold Cup pick for De Bromhead
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Can Thomas pull off another big Saturday win?
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Alan Dudman previews Cheltenham's November meeting with four tips across three days
Friday - the day of returns
The return of Jonbon is the standout in the Shloer Chase - one of four on ITV to kick-off the three days from Cheltenham's November meeting, and with his rating of 170 has reached eminence stage against his chasing peers and the dearth of any 150+ plus chasers, let alone 160 and so on.
Around the 4/91.44 mark, it's a race I can watch without getting involved and likewise the Cross Country Chase which held 24 entries on Tuesday morning and it looks unfathomable.
Another comeback kid, although kid is stretching it with Hillcrest in the 13:45 Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Novices' Chase, as the nine-year-old potentially could be seen on the track for the first time in 973 days. However, like many, will his trainer want to start on lively ground?
Cheltenham have watered - how much we don't know, but I can see them aiming for good to soft ground, whether they can maintain that over three days we'll see. I have a soft spot for Buddy One in the 13:45 as he does have good ground and soft form, plus Cheltenham winning form.
Plus he's fit too as one of the few that has already had a couple of spins this season and he dotted up at Galway in October on decent ground. He really did surge away from the field and that short run-in at Ballybrit, but the race has the potential to cut up.
Saturday for the Champ and De Bromhead
One of the big early season handicaps to look forward to on Saturday with the Paddy Power Gold Cup and yet we are still dealing with good ground and not a speck of rain in sight.
The race revolves around Ginny's Destiny for Paul Nicholls, who is looking for back-to-back Paddy Power Gold Cup wins following Stage Star's triumph last year, and Ginny's Destiny deserves to be 11/43.75 as the market leader.
Betfair ambassador Nicholls had earmarked her for this as the perfect race, but like everyone else, the ground is causing a problem. He acts on good, no worries, but the three wins at Prestbury last term were soft, soft and good to soft. And I've had my fair share of non-runners in the column of late! Il Ridoto was third in the race last year and another for Nicholls, but nothing doing for me with him at 11/26.50.
GA Law is clearly a runner as a winner of the race in 2022 but with the each-way angle I am zoning in on Henry De Bromhead - whom I once was next to at Cheltenham when he was purchasing a very nice pair of brogues.
His runner is Let's Go Champ and we've got the double figures at 10/111.00 for an each-way bet and the nine-year-old is amazingly lightly-raced for his age and as a Grade 3 Handicap winner at Punchestown and his 141 could be very lenient.
I think there are some poorly handicapped horses in this, but he's not one of them. That win came at the Punchestown Festival over 2m4f off 131 but watching the race again he coasted around and jump neatly - indeed one on the second circuit was worth watching a couple of times as he corrected himself.
Those Punchestown fez races are just as competitive as anything in the UK and more, and decent ground seems to suit his style.
De Bromhead mentioned in his post-race interview that he wasn't in love with heavy ground at Limerick on his start previously and he clearly doesn't mind spring ground as he's twice been to the Punchestown Festival and won and finished second over hurdles.
He was last seen in the Galway Plate but appeared a non-stayer over 2m7f there, so the drop in trip with the ground makes him a player in my book, and his jumping looks an asset.
Back Let's Go Champ E/W in the 14:20 Cheltenham (Saturday)
Gowel Road can go close if handling the ground
The 14:55 From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle on Saturday is another punting race by the looks of things although we're dealing with multiple entries and that includes the 5/16.00 favourite Doyen Quest.
Gowel Road is a 7/18.00 chance on the Sportsbook for Nigel Twiston-Davies and the Twister would have been pleased with his return against a race fit and bang in-form The Wallpark at the October meeting.
Gowel Road didn't do an awful lot wrong in the race having cut out the early running and he was still leading going into the straight, but The Wallpark received an ice-cool ride and was one cool gelato in the race to run up the hill strongly.
Twiston-Davies tends to start the early big meetings well although in the last two weeks he's only had four winners from 34 runners, and he does hold form on good ground.
He holds an entry for the following week at Haydock but I will chance my arm here.
Back Gowel Road in the 14:55 Cheltenham (Saturday)
Play a 10/111.00 hope in the Intermediate Hurdle
On with the 15:30 Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle over 2m5f and potentially another large field with 22 in on Tuesday for a maximum field of 20 and this is one of the races Doyen Quest is double-entered for on the day.
Dan Skelton's Major Fortune is also doubly entered for the Saturday. Ben Pauling's Champagne Twist at least has this as his stand alone entry and was last seen when a disappointing favourite in a big handicap hurdle at the Grand National meeting in April.
He was sent off 5/16.00 favourite for that but his jumping suffered in the latter stages and he was well beaten. However, he did impress when winning at Sandown in the Novices Handicap Hurdle Final in March - winning from a mark of 124 and he stayed on well in the soft and heavy conditions.
And here lies the problem with the ground, as that Sandown victory was in a slog and the field were well strung out, but Ben Jones seemed at pains to keep him away from the inside, perhaps for some better racing ground, and his dogged attitude saw him run up the hill ever so well.
His jumping still needs brushing up on, as he fluffed two out with a bunny-hop jump at Sandown but was galvanised into the last with the momentum. He was ever so progressive last term winning five on the bounce and the one hope with the ground I am clinging to as that he scored at Hereford on good to kick-off his win sequence.
I'm also keen on Harry Fry's Beat The Bat - an unexposed hurdler who starts his second season with a first try in a handicap and 132 is a fair reflection of his ability.
He's around the 10/111.00 mark on the Sportsbook and warrants an each-way interest. He was very lightly-raced last season, which is typical of the stable as Fry doesn't over-race his horses, and he had Champagne Twist back in a well-beaten fourth when winning a Maiden Hurdle at Ascot.
Beat The Bat made up some stylish ground into contention and down the straight jumped really well over the final two hurdles with the pair 15L clear to the third, and the form was obviously franked with Champagne Twist winning at Sandown, but the second, the one locked in battle Welcome To Cartries for Paul Nicholls subsequently finished second in a Grade 2 at Doncaster.
I like his mark and with good ground form I actually prefer him on the ground to Champagne Twist as the number one pick.
He's off a break and this will be his first run of the season, but he ran well last term on his reappearance and the 2m5f looks a great move considering his final run as a novice was over an inadequate 2m1f at Cheltenham. He finished second, but the step up four furlongs will suit his stamina.
Back Beat The Bat in the 15:30 Cheltenham (Saturday)
Sunday Greatwood the big race of the day
Fergal O'Brien's win machine Dysart Enos will start her season as the favourite in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle as the favourite for a big pot, and I really hope she can excel this term and break into the top ranks. She holds an entry for the Champion Hurdle - and we're crying out for a runner in that!
She's very smart and has a ton of potential as already in the book she has a 9L win in the Aintree Grade 2 Bumper to her name and she kept rolling with wins Doncaster, Cheltenham and Huntingdon.Crucially two of those were on good ground, and her Aintree win the previous spring was on good to soft. The mark of 131 is pretty lenient.
Sam Thomas secured a recent big Saturday winner with the veteran Al Dancer and he's another trainer that will see these big prizes as winnable before the Festival and he looks a touch overpriced a 10s on the Sportsbook. He's fit after winning the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las last month and there was plenty to like about that performance.
He had a good pace to run at with his stablemate Steel Ally making the running but the way he cantered down the far side into the straight was eye-catching. His jumping stood up well taking the final three flights too and he winged the last, and clearly going left-handed is no issue.D
ysart Enos could be the class act, but Lump Sum motored away from Go Dante at Ffos Las is such good style that he looks as though he can win handicaps from marks in the 140s and he is certainly good enough to defy that rise in weights from his Ffos Las win.
After all, he won the Adonis by 4L last winter. I suspect Thomas might go for a conditional to take off some weight and after Callum Pritchard's no nonsense ride on Al Dancer from the front last season, his claim would be nice. Watch this space.
Back Lump Sum in the 15:30 Cheltenham (Sunday)