ITV Races - Tony Calvin

Alan Dudman Antepost Tips: Back two soft ground horses for Saturday's Lincoln

Chazzesmee
Fozzy Stack's Chazzesmee could be bidding for the Irish and UK Lincoln double

Alan Dudman stands in for Tony Calvin this week and looks at Saturday's Lincoln card at Doncaster with a Newbury weekend pick too...


Lincoln headlines a big weekend

Now the barnacles of the jumping boat are dusted off, Flat fans can look forward to the first big meeting this weekend at Doncaster with four of the races from Town Moor on ITV with the Lincoln taking centre stage.

Ground conditions on Tuesday were heavy, which is slightly problematic for anything wanting a bit of decent ground but the forecast is at least dry.


15:35 Doncaster - Lincoln Handicap - Back Chazzesmee

We'll start with the Lincoln at 15:35 and perfect each-way make-up for a bet with five places on the Sportsbook and plenty at big prices, after all, a whopping 56 have been entered.

One marker already laid down comes from Ireland with Chazzesmee - and he won the Irish Lincolnshire on Monday at the Curragh. With that his trainer Fozzy Stack could well be tempted by the audacious Irish and British Lincoln double - ergo the 6/17.00 looks about right given how well how scored on Monday.

Heavy ground is no problem for him, and Stack is certainly a forward thinking trainer with his horses as they tend to be ready at the start of the season.

I was impressed with him scoring by a 1L this week and he really did cruise through the race. A penalty gets him in the race and he's got the know-how for these big fields judged on Monday, and his effort to get through the gap when travelling supremely well was quite impressive.

He almost pushed his way there.

"He has never been short of ability once we ironed out a few kinks in him. We brought him over to Saratoga last year and he got a stone bruise and couldn't run and then coming back he got stuck in some airport in Holland for four days. Some vet was giving out about his paperwork. In the end I just ran out of time to run him, so it wasn't his fault," said Stack on Monday.

And I share his pain with air issues, as I recently got bogged down in Amsterdam at the airport with delays and hold-ups.

Back Chazzesmee @ 6/17.00

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15:35 Doncaster - Lincoln Handicap - Back Vetiver E/W

The usual Newmarket cohorts have runners entered with Roger Varian, John Gosden, Simon Crisford (Ed and Thady in there somewhere too) and Johnny G is no doubt purring over his Lincoln dice with Mostabshir 10/111.00 - an unexposed 4yo with Group form in the book.

I like his profile, and Gosden won this race with a lightly-raced type in 2021, but the ground has to be a cause for concern as the trainer has said in the past he doesn't like soft conditions. Anything soft or heavy rules him out for me, as a bet anyway.

Last year's first and second Migration and Awaal are 14/115.00 and 9/25.50 and the latter hasn't exactly been missed in the market.

In terms of an each-way bet, I like the 16s on Andrew Balding's Vetiver at 16/117.00.

Off a mark of 98, she is ninth on the list and there's a bit more improvement I am sure in the 4yo filly.

She ran with credit in the big field Balmoral Handicap at the end of last season and also competed at Group 3 level in a race at the track last term.

Soft ground looks important to her and with the ground potentially in her favour, a testing mile could well be her best trip this season, these are plusses.

Back Vetiver E/W @ 16/117.00

Bet here

13:20 Doncaster: No Bet

Saturday's card opens with at 13:20 with the Doncaster Mile but with two places and three at the top of the market at 7/42.75 to 3/14.00, this has the potential to cut up.

Roger Varian's Charyn looks an obvious one as favourite - a horse with Group form and "the Variance" will be pleased not having to contend with Paddington - as he bumped into him three times last term. And for Saturday, at least we won't have the pleasure of seeing the giant teddy of the same namesake wandering around the Donny gates.

Giant Teddy Bears just freak me out.

Forest Of Dean (maybe named after Dean Gaffney) would be interesting at 10s, but he's another Gosden horse that would need a quicker surface, where as Charyn loves the testing mud.

In short, a betting race I can sit out.


15:00 Doncaster - Cammidge Trophy - Back Orazio

The Cammidge at 15:00 has a similar market make-up with just eight at the entry stage and Tuesday's betting had Baradar as the 2/13.00 favourite, Marshman at 5/23.50, and Montassib at 3/14.00.

Baradar finished third in last year's Lincoln in heavy ground and has done a fair bit of racing over 7f and 1m, so the Amo horse down in trip to 6f presents a slight poser. However, if the ground rides deep, he'll be a strong stayer and acts well at Donny too as he landed a handicap over the extended 6f at the track last September.

He's a runner in the going, but the 2/13.00 hardly appeals as a price.

Orazio is interesting on his Wokingham effort from last season for Charlie Hills - a race he finished a not too far sixth in on soft. Soft doesn't present a problem it appears but his sole effort on heavy was disappointing at Goodwood.

He's at 4/15.00 and he did win off a break last April on his first start of the season for Hills.

Back Orazio @ 4/15.00

Bet here

14:10 Newbury : Back Into The Park

Three races come from Newbury for the ITV cameras on Saturday and all three were well stocked in terms of entries on Tuesday with 25, 19 and 15 runners.

My eyes are with the 14:10 Newbury Novices'' Handicap Hurdle and plans seem to be fairly firm here if you are looking for a bet as 11 riders were booked on Tuesday and David Maxwell is on the Joker - Joker De Mai for Harry Derham.

Betting was 6/17.00 the field on Tuesday on the Betfair Sportsbook.

I am drawn to Philip Hobbs and Johnson White's Into The Park here - a progressive horse off 126 and available at 10/111.00 on the Sportsbook.

Hobbs in years gone by was a Cheltenham trainer, but it appears he has waved the white flag and conceded defeat in tackling the Irish at the Festival, and no doubt this horse would have been the type in the past to get in one of the handicaps. Not now, and it says something that one of these Saturday handicaps is deemed more winnable. He did hold entries in the Martin Pipe and County.

I have a love-hate relationship with Hobbs' chasers, but at least I haven't got to worry about the fences for his, nor the ground as he has proven soft form.

He won at Taunton quite easily last time on his handicap debut from 120, and while I don't think he was totally in love with the sharp track, he responded well to pressure and hit a fairly chunky 22.0 in-running having been sent off the 6/52.20 favourite.

He previously won a Maiden Hurdle at Newbury over shorter, but I see him as a type certainly that will appreciate the step up to 2m3f on Saturday, and if they had considered the Martin Pipe, they must think he has a fair bit of stamina.

The 5yo is a big horse and will suit a more galloping track.

I will be back with Saturday's preview and will look to add a couple of bets for the Doncaster Mile and two more at Newbury with the column set to go up on Friday.

Back Into The Park @ 10/111.00

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