Sunday Racing Tips: Key Timeform data you need to know

• Firefox to take high rank in novice chase division

• Come on Teddy takes the eye for Harry Derham

• To Chase A Dream can enhance course record

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Large P shows Firefox is expected to improve

2

Firefox (Ire)

• J: Keith Donoghue
• T: Gordon Elliott, Ireland
• F:

Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for the Drinmore Novice Chase (14:05) at Fairyhouse on Sunday are headed by Heart Wood who is 9 lb clear of Shecouldbeanything who is 4 lb ahead of Firefox.

However, that doesn't tell the whole story as ratings are a reflection of opportunity as well as ability, and Heart Wood has had the chance to post a bigger figure than his rivals as he also competed in novice chases last season and ran well in Grade 1 company when third in the Mildmay Novice's Chase at Aintree in the spring.

That's clearly the best piece of chase form on offer but Firefox showed enough over hurdles last season to suggest that he can exceed that level granted the opportunity. Firefox, the only horse to beat Ballyburn over hurdles last season when winning his maiden at this venue, was placed in Grade 1s at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown to establish himself as one of the best novice hurdlers around - indeed, only Ballyburn, Mystical Power and Slade Steel were rated higher with Timeform.

The tall Firefox is a chasing sort on looks and impressed wih his jumping when making an assured winning debut over fences at Down Royal four weeks ago and he looks like one of the best prospects in the division.

Key trainer change for Come on Teddy

4

Come On Teddy (Ire)

• J: Harry Cobden
• T: Harry Derham
• F:

Harry Derham has made a hugely impressive start to his training career and Come on Teddy joining his yard (from Tom George) has generated Timeform's Trainer Uplift Flag.

It's easy to understand that Trainer Uplift Flag when you look into how remarkably well Derham has done with his recruits. Looking at his stable debutants who have started out in handicaps, Derham has had 15 winners from only 29 runners at a strike rate of 52% for a profit of £43.79 to £1 level stakes.

Come on Teddy is 3 lb clear at the head of Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings on his reappearance in the staying handicap chase (13:55) at Carlisle, so is clearly well treated if the change of yard has a positive impact as expected.

Come on Teddy was below form in four outings over hurdles last season following his return from a long layoff, but he fell in the weights as a result and produced a much more encouraging effort over fences when a close-up third at Exeter when last seen in March.

Carlisle course suits To Chase A Dream

6

To Chase A Dream

• J: Brian Hughes
• T: Paul Collins
• F:

Carlisle is a stiff course with an uphill finish that places the emphasis on stamina and it is evidently one that plays to the strengths of To Chase A Dream who has run well on both outings at the track to earn Timeform's Horses For Courses Flag.

To Chase A Dream had finished a promising runner-up over this course and distance last season on his debut and he went one better on his handicap debut and first start this term back over this track and trip in October.

To Chase A Dream was largely campaigned over further last season, so he appreciated the stiff finish on his return and found plenty to assert close home. It was probably also significant that leading jockey Brian Hughes was taking over from amateur John Dawson, and Hughes retains the ride here in the 17-furlong handicap hurdle (14:30).

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