Saturday Sandown Tips: Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict with 20/1 outsider

• Feature Bet365 Gold Cup has five places

• Who is best of the Willie Mullins three?

• Alan Dudman gives a chance to a 20/121.00 outsider

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The final hurrah of the jumps' season comes up on Saturday with the Bet365 Gold Cup and 20 in the field makes for a superb each-way race with five places available on the Betfair Sportsbook, and we could be looking at genuine decent ground for the jumpers as spring pokes its head around the weather corner.

For Trainer Title narrative (and some love it, others less so), Dan Skelton has all but conceded defeat (but he's given it a real good go) as the wily old fox Willie Mullins is set for his UK lap of honour and testimonial tour.

Four horses are rated 150+ although they will take some going to replicate or better the great Tidal Bay's performance in this back in 2012 - winning by 15L off 154 and nearly 12 stone. Was it called the Whitbread then?

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The Mullins' trio

The Closutton crows have been circling around this race for the past week with 13 entered initially on Monday morning, then down to four and now down to three.

Minella Cocooner is rated 151 and is the best of the Mullins three for Saturday in terms of that BHA rating but also price as he's in at 13/27.50 on the Sportsbook - although cut from 8/19.00 with the initial day of race market. Not bad for a 'C' teamer.

The one thing that strikes me about him is that he stays so well, and there's no doubt in my mind his mark is attractive considering he was rated 146 over hurdles and finished second in the Albert Bartlett as a novice hurdler.

He was a bit headstrong those days and while his jumping has by no means been foot perfect from his Beginners' win earlier in the season at Navan, he put in a better round in the Irish Grand National last time, and ran a huge race under top weight.

I like his chances on the better ground and with his stamina assured, I wouldn't be surprised if he scooped the 95K first prize.

Expect him to be ridden up with the pace, and those tactics suit him better. Where as I am not quite sure what to expect from Nick Rockett - who has been held up and been up with the speed, although the latter has come in smaller fields.

His jumping was far from fluent and he has a few lengths to find on the Irish Grand National run at Fairyhouse behind Minella Cocooner, but he was sent off favourite for that and is a 7/18.00 chance here.

Aime Desjy is the third of the trio and was last seen in the Topham chase - making errors and meeting trouble.

It's a quick turnaround for him, and you had to be quick too to grab the 50s available on the Sportsbook as he was 25/126.00 on Friday morning at the time of writing.

Good ground? Well Mullins said after his Gowran win in March: "He jumped a lot better today and he seems to like this game better than hurdling. He goes on that ground and I think he'll go on better ground as we get into the spring."

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Can Nicholls go out on a high?

The Champion trainer is about to relinquish his crown to his nemesis Mullins, and while he outlines Hitman as his best chance on Saturday in his latest Betfair Ambassador column, his claims with Threeunderthrufive at 7/18.00 is obvious looking at the betting.

"We had the option of running him in the Grand National but chose to keep him for this race," says Nicholls on the 9yo's chances, but it looks tough from 156 against potential improvers from Ireland.

Cheltenham revisited!

Enrilo was a winner of this a few years ago and lost the race in the stewards' room, veering across the track in a dramatic finish was deemed to be a big fault. He's not had a lot of luck in his career but he is down to his lowest mark for a while from 134 and Angus Chelada knows him well.

Can he win, though? Not for me despite the 25/126.00 price.

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Honour the great Kitty's

As Tony Calvin mentioned in his ante-post column this week, it seems as if Kitty's Light has been around for donkey's years. He's still a spring chicken at eight years of age, but what a tough as teak runner to be still going strong, still holding a decent rating, and still with a chance in a big race after 26 runs over fences.

Second in 2021, third to Hewick in 2022 and a winner in 2023, this is his race, but goodness me he'll have to draw on those tough reserves after running a creditable fifth in the National just two weeks ago.

But credit to Christian Williams for not only the handling of the horse, but also not shying away from a race. However, with the punting head on, I cannot see 4/15.00 as any sort of value at the top of the market on the Sportsbook.

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Market moves on the Sportsbook

Weveallbeencaught was a 25/126.00 poke before going into 14/115.00 on Friday morning on the Sportsbook and he will be racing away from his local track Cheltenham for the first time this season.

Whether you equate that move on price as a gamble, it's not for me. He's been well beaten enough times this term and wouldn't be a certain stayer either.

Kinondo Kwetu is another market positive from Friday early doors - 16/117.00 into 11/112.00 and I can see that more than the Twister horse.

Good ground and drying ground will suit him and less of slog in bottomless is a plus, as he has a slight stamina doubt. He ran a fine race at Aintree last time out and has a good strike-rate over fences, however, I feel the price has gone a bit.

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The each-way play

As I like Minella Cocooner's chances the most for the win, Rapper has drawn me in, and not because he's by that tricky sire Scorpion.

And there's perhaps a touch of the Scorpions about him.

He fell in the Kim Muir at the 17th last time and was still in touch, and backing a faller is perhaps never a wise move, but he's been a fairly decent jumper in his time and he got close to Threeunderthrufive at Ascot back in February.

Headgear is important to him as he won in cheekpieces and now has the visor, but he has looked good when he is on a going day and stayed very strongly to win up the Cheltenham hill last winter on New Year's Day. That came over 3m2f and I have no qualms with the trip and as he can travel well and a big field might perk him up.

Or the race could have the complete opposite as he's such a hit and miss character. However, at 20/121.00 and on his Ascot run, he looks worth a five place punt.

Good luck for Saturday!

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Now read Tony Calvin's latest column

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