Horse Racing Tips

Saturday Racing Tips: Kate Tracey has two plays in Coral Gold Cup

Newbury
Kate Tracey chances two runners in an ultra competitive Coral Gold Cup

"That run very much looked like a pipe opener before heading to Newbury for this prize over a far more suitable trip and still running off a fair mark."

It's a cracking weekend of competitive jump racing and Kate Tracey has plenty of ways to play the action at Newbury and Newcastle...


Plenty of ways to play competitive handicap

We begin with a very likeable contest as year on year the Sir Peter O'Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase is well supported by top connections. This race is a 0-145 Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m6f at 13:20 where JP McManus is again, enlisting O'Sullevan's silks on his runner, Kapcorse.

This contest is fiendishly competitive where chances can be given to all runners. The trends suggest siding with a seven- or eight-year-old, rated 128-134 who is likely to be held up. Coming into this race on the back of one start is another plus where ideally, they finished mid-division in a handicap chase that came three weeks to one month ago.

The horse that ticks all these boxes is Killer Kane who hasn't always been a horse I like to side with. He has a high head carriage which makes him difficult to trust, especially as there were times earlier in his handicapping career where he didn't make the most of good opportunities.

He had strong maiden and novice hurdle form so I was fascinated to see what he was going to do off a lowly handicap mark of 128. But he failed to prove that mark to be feasible in his first three starts in handicaps before all the stars aligned for him in the spring.

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He was able to gain back-to-back successes at Kempton and then in a Listed Novices' Handicap Chase at Sandown in March. He looked like he was suffering the effects of an intense season on his final start at Aintree when still running well in a Grade 3 Handicap Chase.

His reappearance was a respectable without being a spectacular effort when mid-division in an Exeter stayers' handicap chase where he looked in need of the run.

He's been given a further 2lb back for that effort which sees him just 2lb above his last winning mark.
This drop down in trip should suit him as should his running style in this contest so he must be considered to get back to winning ways.

Killer Kane is my main play however, I'm also siding with two at each-way odds as I think they are both very feasibly priced up.

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The first of these two is Dublin Four who was a dual winner over two and a half miles over fences last season. Those wins came when switching from the trainership of Graeme McPherson to Fergal O'Brien when that partnership merged.

He previously won over this course and distance in March 2021 off a mark of 116 and has continued to steadily climb the handicap ever since. He posted a solid reappearance last time out when second at Wetherby in a Premier Handicap.

That effort was a career best from Dublin Four and he can be further marked up for the run as he was held up in rear which wasn't the place to be as it transpired.
He was then left with plenty to do with four to jump and was always keeping on strongly in the finish.

Off the same mark as last time out, Dublin Four must be given at least an each-way chance at 8.07/1.

The final consideration for this race is Jacamar who I simply, cannot leave alone at 26.025/1.

He was a dual winner over 2m4f last season including in a competitive Novices' Limited Handicap Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day under Danny Mullins.

He is a horse who has been prone to making mistakes in his career and that was shown even in his Kempton success.
Which is why it looked interesting that he should have been sighted at the National fences at Aintree last time out.

He surprisingly, jumped well in the main but didn't find as much off the bridle as looked likely. He is a horse who has to be delivered late as he likes to pick up the pieces when a race falls apart.

He may well get that here with this race favouring hold up performers in recent years. He's also running off a 3lb lower mark than last time out which sees him back on a very feasible mark to chance at a fair each-way price.

Chance two with more to offer in Coral Gold Cup

I still get shivers down my spine thinking back to last year's Ladbrokes Trophy (as this race was known then). I tipped Remastered at a fair price in this column and turning for home was counting my proverbial chickens. It just goes to show that in this game, you can never be home and dry until you're past that red and white lollipop.

The beauty of racing though is that there is no choice but to move on and continue to chug along, trying to find the next big priced winner.

My trend analysis nearly gained me the big one last year, so let's try the same approach again this time in the Coral Gold Cup at 15:05.

Once again, this contest has shown to favour eight-year-olds, rated 147-149 who are ridden prominently. Coming into the Newbury showpiece with one run already this season is a plus and ideally, the horse ran well in a handicap chase on that latest outing. A turnaround time of one to two months is optimal.

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The first horse these trends landed me on was Corach Rambler who is surely, one of the most popular horses in training. He is a definite character, with an ungamely high head carriage and running style but he is certainly talented.

He really progressed through the chasing ranks at a rate of knots last season with three wins which culminated in winning the Grade 3 Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
He made a fair reappearance when last seen at Carlisle last month over a trip far short of his best over 2m4f in the Listed Colin Parker Memorial.

That run very much looked like a pipe opener before heading to Newbury for this prize over a far more suitable trip and still running off a fair mark.

The second selection has already been backed in from 9.08/1 to 7.513/2 so I'm hoping to get involved before he shortens anymore. That horse is Busselton who has already defied a lot of expectation by winning the Kerry National as a five-year-old last time out.

He was really suited by the step up in trip to three miles for the first time on that latest occasion at Listowel where he continued to stay on all the way to the line.
This extra two furlongs in what is likely to be a stamina sapping test, as it always is given the pace in the race, could unlock further improvement.

Despite his young age, he has been highly tried over fences with 12 career starts over the larger obstacles where he's now a four-time winner.

He is well equipped to deal with big field handicaps as shown on his latest couple of outings. Finishing second in a 20-runner Galway Handicap Chase and then fending off 15 rivals last time out.

He is more than capable of defying the 7lb rise for his latest success and must be respected for his top Irish yard.

Big priced win only bet in Rehearsal Chase

Last weekend promised so much in terms of the horses we were expecting to see but it couldn't have been a damper squib... Alas, Ascot's loss may well be Newcastle's gain with plenty of runners rerouted to this weekend. One such horse is L'Homme Presse who was due to run in the Grade 2 1965 Chase last Saturday.

He bids to shoulder top weight to victory in the Rehearsal Handicap Chase over 2m7f at 15:25 which is likely to be his for the taking.

Despite L'Homme Presse being in a league of his own, I have still run the trends for this race which have offered a big priced alternative.

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Factors to consider for this race are horses aged eight or 10-years-old, rated 142-145 who are likely to be ridden prominently. Coming into this race with one start in the season is a positive and the horse didn't have to have run well on that latest start. Time since a latest outing doesn't overly matter but around one month is preferred.

I almost had to have a word with myself when I ran these variables against the declared runners as the horse who ticked every box was Windsor Avenue...

This horse is very talented yet cannot be relied upon in any sense. He is now a 10-year-old but remains lightly enough raced and there is a definite feeling that he never truly fulfilled his potential.

He looked on a clear downwards spiral until springing a huge surprise last season when winning the Listed Sky Bet Handicap Chase at 40/1.
Getting an uncontested lead seems key to Windsor Avenue nowadays and that's exactly what he got at Doncaster in January.

He failed to build on that success on his next two outings of last season when pulling up on both occasions and that theme continued into his reappearance last time out.

He ran in the Veterans' Handicap Chase at Aintree where thanks to some slow jumps, he dropped himself to the rear of the field. Nathan Mascrop was live to this sulking and forced Windsor Avenue up the field to get him competitive.

He appeared much happier once up with the pace and travelled well however, he weakened quickly four out and ended up being pulled up.

Of course, it's a huge risk siding with Windsor Avenue but he's now back on his Sky Bet Chase winning mark of 144. He is a flush or bust character so I wouldn't recommend siding with him each-way, even with L'Homme Presse in this race. It's a win only play at 34.033/1.

Chance two in Newbury closer

Newbury are providing us with some stellar contests on Saturday and that is again the case in the last race. This is a 0-150 Handicap Chase over 2m at 15:40 where I'm siding with two who have been the subject of good support already.

The first runner is Amarillo Sky who looks to have more to offer on the back of his Cheltenham success from last time out. There are some trends he doesn't tick but he fills plenty of the criteria to win this race on recent renewals.

For this race there is no age bias but horses rated between 138-141 are favoured as are horses who are held up. Coming into this race on the back of one start this season is a positive and ideally, the horse reached the frame in novices' company last time out. A two week to one month turnaround time is optimal.

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Amarillo Sky is likely to try and make all, just as he did at Cheltenham last time out which may not suit this particular race if those tactics are reenlisted. However, he certainly ticks the boxes of one run this season, which resulted in a win and he has the perfect turnaround time.

He really put the pressure on his rivals' jumping on that latest outing where the pace held up.
He looks more than capable of defying the 4lb rise for that success.

The other runner to consider for this race is Only Money. Chris Gordon's runner wouldn't have a high enough rating to have won this race in recent renewals but it is a weaker contest this time around which brings him into play.

He is likely to be ridden in mid-division which should be a positive with plenty of pace on in this race that may well collapse into his lap. He comes here well-conditioned from three starts already this season, winning the first two.

He was foiled in his hattrick bid last time out but still ran a very fair race to finish third at Aintree and he's able to run off the same mark here.

He too, has the perfect turnaround time since that latest outing and he can put his fitness and form to good use in this race.

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Kate's P/L

Staked: 26pts
Returns: +24.75pts
Overall: 1.25pts

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