Mark Milligan's Big Race Verdict: Progressive Arclight to beat the boys in Pendil

• A wide-open renewal of the Pendil

• Mark has doubts over several of the main contenders

• Henderson's mare looks a chasing natural

• We're now NRMB on all 28 Cheltenham Festival races

• Free Racing Multiple Every Weekend Until Cheltenham

The 2m 4f Pendil Novices' Chase at Kempton (14:27) is one of the highlights of a varied Saturday offering, where fans of both the jumps and flat have plenty to get their teeth stuck into.

We're going to concentrate on an open renewal of the Pendil for this Big Race Verdict, and the obvious starting point is Tahmuras, whose trainer Paul Nicholls has a simply astonishing record in this contest.

The Ditcheat handler has won the race no less than 14 times since 2006, including the last three, all of which were piloted by stable jockey Harry Cobden, who once again gets the leg up on Tahmuras.

While he's done little wrong in three chase starts today, I wasn't completely enamoured by the way he hung under pressure when second in a three-runner contest at Exeter last time.

This is even tougher too, so he's unlikely to get away with such antics in this company and I'll pass him over, while fully acknowledging his trainer's record in the race makes him a leading contender.

Le Patron needs to bounce back

Although we only have six runners going to post, it's possible to make a case that any one of them could win, even the outsider Soul Icon, though he'll need to step up a little on what he's already achieved over fences.

Le Patron had looked highly promising winning his first three starts over the bigger obstacles, including when beating Colonel Harry and JPR One in Grade One company at Sandown in December, and he presumably wasn't right when losing his unbeaten chase record with something a whimper back there last time.

It would be no surprise were Le Patron to bounce back but he does have to give weight away all round.

Blow Your Wad looks quite closely matched at the weights with Le Patron and is another who should be thereabouts.

Although soundly beaten into second by Gary Moore's charge when they met in handicap company at Sandown in November, Blow Your Wad was giving plenty of weight away there and will benefit from much better terms this time around.

First-time cheekpieces may also perk him up after he ran a bit flat last time.

Progressive Arclight makes plenty of appeal

Dan Skelton's Pembroke is another to throw into the mix, and he was far from disgraced when third to Arkle hope JPR One at Lingfield last time.

Prior to that he'd come home alone in an exhausting four-runner contest at Aintree, one of several unedifying spectacles we've seen in desperate ground this winter.

Again, while Pembroke has chances, he's not one I'm completely taken by, which brings us to Nicky Henderson's mare Arclight.

Despite being flat bred (was a winner in that sphere for Sir Mark Prescott), this daughter of Champs Elysees has looked an absolute natural since being fast-tracked over fences by the Seven Barrows handler.

Twice a winner over hurdles, she's really elevated her form since going chasing, winning all three starts to date, beginning with a novice handicap at Kempton in October.

She then followed up in straightforward fashion at Exeter, essentially strolling home four lengths clear of subsequent winner Mayhem Mya.

However, it's her most recent success at Wincanton that marks her out as a serious prospect in this sort of grade.

Travelling typically well and jumping with her usual fluency, Arclight came home a ready winner ahead of Marsh Wren, who franked the form in no uncertain terms when taking both her next two starts, including a listed mares chase at Thurles.

Further back, Plenty Of Time went on to a subsequent success, so the form has a rock-solid look to it.

Getting weight all round, Arclight will do for me, particularly as she has less questions marks over her than her main rivals.

Now read Paul Nicholls on his Saturday runners here.

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