Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin backs Soaring Glory to repeat Betfair Hurdle win

With small fields once again the order for most of the day on ITV, tactics will play a vital role in deciding who comes out on top on Betfair Super Saturday, and not least because some of this weekend's pace maps were very hard to draw up.

Some contests are ripe for one jockey to take the initiative and go forward - most obviously in the Betfair Denman Chase, and maybe for Jamie Moore on Sussex Ranger in the 3m handicap hurdle - and, of course, we have the much-discussed trainer form to consider as well.

Obviously, a lot has been made of the fact of how Paul Nicholls' horses have been running in recent weeks - i.e. badly - but a few other yards are hardly ripping it up at the moment, so the terrestrial races do have a very tricky over all feel to them.

Fair play to Nicholls for running some of his top guns though, as plenty of others would have taken a pull in the same circumstances, I fancy.

I was thinking about re-naming Newbury, Betfair Super Sack-a-day, in his honour, such is the set of cojones he is showing by running the likes of Clan Des Obeaux, Hitman and Bravesmansgame, but that would have been downright crude.

Soaring Glory still the main fancy

The good news is that 14 of the 16 five-day entries have stood their ground in the 155k Betfair Hurdle at 15:35 and I haven't veered away from my Monday ante-post thoughts that Soaring Glory is my main fancy for the race.

Zero marks for originality, but I think he is the most solid proposition in here and I would have him as favourite in front of the sexier, less exposed, brigade of novices. Hence, 7/1+ looks very fair to me.

He is 14lb higher than when beating Fifty Ball by three lengths in this race last year but he dotted up there, I was hugely impressed with his reappearance defeat of Leoncavallo and Boothill at Ascot, and he clearly wasn't suited by the set-up of small-field races in his two subsequent starts.

The four-runner race here in November was run in a crawl, though it has to be said I was surprised by his excellent effort when a two-and-a-half-length third to Epatante in the Christmas Hurdle last time, and even more so when he was dropped 2lb for it.

That leaves him just 4lb up from Ascot, a race in which he looked a brute of a horse (from my armchair anyway).

The ground is perfect for him, as should be the expected pace - it is predicted to come from Jetoile, I Like To Move It and Howdyalikemenow - but a late spanner was thrown into the mix by his trainer putting cheekpieces on him for the first time since he blew out in them in the Supreme, though I don't think the headgear had anything to do with that below-par run.

As a result, I went back and had a look at the videos of his recent races and I kind of get it, as he didn't travel as kindly or strongly here and at Kempton as he did at Ascot (or in this race last year).

Either way, it is not enough to put up me off him and he rates a bet at 9.08/1 or bigger. The 13/2, five places, is obviously fine if you want to play him each way.

Back up bet that can't be missed

I have to have First Street as a back-up at 14/1 each way, five places, with the Betfair Sportsbook though.

He is similar to Soaring Glory in that he has shown his hand far more than the likes of Jpr One after being raised 9lb for his win in a much lesser handicap than this at Kempton last time, his first race following a 99-day break and a wind op after disappointing in the Persian War (he made a noise there).

However, what I loved most about that Kempton performance was his powerful finishing effort after the last. His jockey only waved the whip at him and he took off late doors, reminiscent of his performance when beating The Brimming Water over 2m5f on good ground at Warwick in September, and his late burst, and proven stamina, could pay dividends here.

He was actually in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at the five-day stage, but he obviously stepped aside when his stablemate Constitution Hill was confirmed for the race.

On to the 3m handicap hurdle at 13:50 and readers of my ante-post column on Tuesday will know I was not amused when I had pull my two planned, filed tips for 10/1 Whatsupwithyou and 16/1 Coeur De Lion at the very last minute after their odds were cut to 7s and 10s respectively.

They have shortened further, but justifiably so, as the handicap has cut up to just nine runners from 16 on Monday, at which stage 13 had double entries.

I do think Whatstupwithyou is the most likely winner of the above pair as his mark of 125, some 11lb lower than his fourth in the Martin Pipe just five starts ago, looks a gift.

But his stamina is a worry, for all 3m around here on good to soft gives him a far better chance of lasting home than 3m on soft did at Cheltenham last time, especially in a race in which there is no guaranteed pace.

Coeur De Lion is equally well treated off 122 and should relish only his second attempt at this 3m trip, given his Royal Ascot winning performance over 2m4f, with the cheekpieces back on. The issue with him though is he really does need to show a lot more than and, as the old man of the party as a 9yo, I am not sure if his heart is still in it.

However, his trainer Alan King, not in the best of form of late, will have been heartened by a double at Donny on Thursday, as would Whatsupwithyou's handler Ben Pauling after a 33/1 poke obliged at Ffos Las.

It's a pretty tough race to call, all things considered.

As mentioned in the intro, Sussex Ranger could get an uncontested lead, Risk And Roll deserved his 10lb hike for an impressive Huntingdon win, and I am not in the least surprised all the fancy prices quickly disappeared about Skandiburg early on Thursday afternoon, although the latter was pulled out just before 3pm with a bad scope.

In the final analysis, the disappearing prices have done for me here - Whatsupwithyou would be my bet at 6/1+, if pushed - so no tip.

Cracking races look tough to call

That is also true of the three other ITV races at Newbury.

It is great to see Bravemansgame given his chance off 159 in the 2m7f86yd novices' handicap chase at 13:15 but the upshot is he is odds-on and the field has been reduced to six from 17 at the five-day stage, with three out of the handicap. Class horses in handicaps, especially limited ones, come at a cost sometimes.

I couldn't be backing the Nicholls' horses myself this weekend, however much you want his bravery to be rewarded, and especially at his kind of price.

And, even though there are only five runners, giving weight to last-time-out winners is no easy task, to start with. Official ratings suggest the Denman Chase at 14:25 could be a match between Clan Des Obeaux and Royale Pagaille, but the tactics - and maybe the ground, which may not be ideal for the latter - could be crucial here.

None are habitual front-runners and maybe Royale Pagaille will go forward again after being ridden with patience when winning the Peter Marsh off 163 at Haydock last time.

However, if you are second-guessing how the form horse will run, and are undecided as to how his main market rival will be ridden on livelier going than ideal, then you are probably saying to yourself "no bet". I'd take the 5/2 Royale Pagaille over the evens about the jolly though.

The Betfair Exchange Game Spirit at 15:00 is another cracking race and it was easier to call from a pace perspective, with Editeur Du Gite in the race.

Unfortunately, he came out at 2pm on Thursday after a bad blood analysis. Perhaps they will send Funambule Sivola on now.

I am a big fan of Hitman, who would have got a lot closer to his stablemate Greaneteen in the Tingle Creek but for clouting two out. At the risk of repeating myself, however, I have to let the Ditcheat massive go unbacked and untipped this weekend.

King of May fits bill at Warwick

Runners are lacking in two of the three ITV heats at Warwick - Marie's Rock looks a fair enough price at around 11/4 in the mares' race - but my word what a race is in store with Edwardstone, Third Time Lucki and Brave Seasca going at hammer and tongs in the Kingmaker at 14:05 with For Pleasure probably leading them up for three-quarters of the race.

Looking at Betfair's Arkle Exchange market, we have the current first, fourth and seventh favourite for that Festival race in here (the other market leaders are Irish), so this is literally England's premier 2m novices' chase burn-up.

It wouldn't be in the least surprising were Brave Seasca take the bigger scalps, as he was so impressive in beating Sky Pirate off 137 over track and trip last time, but his blind Grand Annual backers (no weights, no entries for any Cheltenham handicap yet, lest we forget) will be hoping for an honourable, distant third there.

No betting opinion here.

As ever, it is the handicaps where I look for numbers and betting opportunities, with 11 taking the field in the 2m4f contest at 15:15.

As with Skandiburg, you can see why the Sportsbook's opening 33/1 about Lieutenant Rocco was promptly taken as his sights have been lowered after his Lingfield reappearance and you always suspect horses from smaller outfits will always benefit more for a run than their bigger counterparts.

If that is the case, and he was dropped 3lb for Lingfield, then he is probably the best treated 'oss in here off a mark of 140 on his body of work for Nick Mitchell last season, and he has won around here, too.

The 33s was accommodated though, as did all the 22s and upwards in the marketplace - he is now into 20s - and a further issue for his backers is the amount of probable pace in here, so this forward-goer will get plenty of attention on the front end.

With that in mind, I looked for a closer and, to be honest, I had five to choose from (see pace maps at end).

The King Of May fitted the bill best though and he is worth a small exchange, win-only bet at 11.010/1 or bigger. The 10/1 on the Sportsbook is clearly an option, too.

You need a pacey sort around this track, so his 2m speed will come in handy, but he proved he stays further when winning over 2m3f at Sedgefield last time, on only his second attempt at that trip.

He went up 7lb for that win, which was probably on the harsh side, though the second was coming into the race on the back of a win, and the third was seeking a hat-trick. So maybe it was fair enough.

And he has run well off higher marks than his revised level of 130. He was beaten only half-a-length and a neck in the Castleford off 133 last season, for example, and I like the fact he is unexposed at the trip, from a stable in form.

He will do for me.

PACE MAPS FOR ITV RACES (or my best guess)

13:15 Newbury - Lead/Prominent - Bravemansgame. Pats Fancy, Fern Hill; Midfield - Grumpy Charley, Gallyhill; Held Up - I K Brunel

13:50 Newbury - Lead/Prominent - Sussex Ranger ??; Midfield - Whatsupwithyou, Coeur De Lion, The Big Breakaway, Butler's Brief; Held Up - The Brimming Water, Polish, Risk And Roll

14:25 Newbury - Lead/Prominent - Clan Des Obeaux ?, Eldorado Allen ?, Royale Pagaille ?; Midfield - Imperial Aura; Held Up - De Rasher Counter

15:00 Newbury - Lead/Prominent - Funambule Sivola?; Midfield - Hitman; Held Up - Sceau Royal, Sky Pirate

15:35 Newbury:

13:35 Warwick - Lead/Prominent - Whitehotchilifili; Midfield - Get A Tonic; Held Up - Indefatigable, Marie's Rock

14:05 Warwick - Lead/Prominent - For Pleasure, Brave Seasca; Midfield - Edwardstone, Held Up - Third Time Lucki

15:15 Warwick - Lead/Prominent - Our Power, Cheddleton, Wishing And Hoping, Riders Onthe Storm ?, Lieutenant Rocco; Midfield - Dinny Lacey; Held Up - Celebre D'Allen, Amoola Gold, Falco Blitz, Jacamar, The King Of May