Betfair Hurdle: Tony Calvin's early verdict on Saturday's showdown

No appreciable rain around at Newbury and Warwick this week, so mudlarks need not apply once again, it seems.

It is probably a good job that the courses saw rain over the weekend then - the former got 5mm on Sunday, and the latter 19mm - and the going at both tracks is currently good to soft (soft in places).

So I think it is fair to work on a basis of good to soft come Saturday.

Right, that is the boring ground housekeeping out of the way, so let's get down to business, and the Betfair Hurdle, worth over 87k to the winner and 155k in total, has to be the first port of call for any weekend ante-post analysis.

In fact, it is my sole focus of this ante-post piece.

We had 31 in the race before Monday's five-day declarations came in at midday - Song For Someone and Adagio headed the weights before they came out - and now we are down to 16, which it must be said is more than a touch disappointing, numbers-wise (and that is putting it mildly) for such a hugely valuable handicap that can accommodate a maximum field of 24.

A mark of just 121 would have got you in here off 10 stone, so I don't know what it is going on.

It is quite sad to see some firms already only paying three places on the race, understandable as it may be. The Betfair Sportsbook are paying four, and I'd say they are likely to be at least five come Saturday if the entries hold up as expected now.

Soaring Glory looking for second title

The handicap remains highly competitive, of course, and the top weight is now set to be carried by last year's winner Soaring Glory, which is good news for Royaume Uni, Lord Baddesley and the infuriating Natural History, who were all out of the handicap before Monday's entry stage (the latter pair still are, but at least they are now only 1lb and 7lb wrong respectively).

However, Lord Baddesley has the option of Warwick on Saturday and Natural History is declared overnight at Taunton in a first-time hood on Tuesday, so whether they run at Newbury is anyone's guess (thankfully they are the only doubly-entered horses in the race).

Metier is officially the best handicapped horse in this early closer, as he only carries a 5lb penalty for his Lingfield success last time, having been raised 7lb for it.

Now, he is one horse who can reasonably be pigeon-holed as an aforementioned mudlark, as all his best form is on soft or heavy and he was a little underwhelming, off a 2lb lower mark than this, when beaten over 9 lengths by Tritonic on good to soft in the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot in December.

Maybe that is an over-simplistic assessment about the Grade 1 winner, but it is one that his Flat form and trainer's comments give further credence to, and I imagine he will be much bigger than 8/1 at the weekend, or at least the same price, with an extra place thrown in.

In fact, he is currently a whopping 16.531/2 on the exchange, so will he even run on the expected ground? For such a sum, you'd hope they would give it a whirl.

The same comments are true of most of these to be honest, as the betting is incredibly tight-knit and probably a touch defensive all round in the marketplace.

A very tight market

We have 5/1 co-favourites of three in Jpr One, Broomfield Burg and Knappers Hill, then we get to 6s Soaring Glory, 8s Metier, Jetoile and Tritonic.

You can easily make a strong case for any of these, but that is exactly my point. They are just seven of the 16-strong field, and none are bigger than 8/1. Not much juice there, to these eyes.

Of course, as mentioned as regards Metier's price, we do have an exchange market, for win-only punters.

There are a few prices on here that interested me, and Soaring Glory at 9.08/1 and First Street at 19.018/1 were the top two, while a couple of others made up my shortlist of four at this stage.

Soaring Glory may be 14lb higher than when beating Fifty Ball by 3 lengths in this race last year but he dotted up there, I was hugely impressed with his reappearance defeat of Leoncavallo and Boothill at Ascot, and there are easy excuses to make for his two defeats since.

He is simply not ideally suited to small-field races, though it has to be said I was surprised that the handicapper dropped him 2lb for his third to Epatante in the Christmas Hurdle last time, while raising the runner-up Glory And Fortune (just a neck in front of him off levels) 3lb.

That's a very curious piece of handicapping to me. I couldn't see any justification for dropping him 2lb for finishing within 2 ½ lengths of a mare rated 4lb higher and getting 7lb.

Of course, it doesn't mean Soaring Glory is necessarily well-treated but I think he is. He hosed up last year on good to soft in this, and we know bigger-field handicaps of this nature suit his style.

The pace in here could come from Jetoile, Metier, I Like To Move It and Howdoyoulikemenow, and that should help set up Soaring Glory's finishing burst, amply displayed at Ascot. nicely.

On the face of it, Glory And Fortune is bang up against it and he didn't run well in this race last year - but this game is all about prices, and I didn't expect him to be trading at 25/1+ either, so he makes my final list of four, alongside Fifty Ball, on the same mark as when second here last year.

Fifty Ball's hurdling mark has been dropped alongside his chase mark after three fencing efforts this term, and you can't lose sight of the fact just what a warm race last year's renewal turned out to be.

The current Arkle second favourite Edwardstone was in third, dual subsequent winner Annual Invictus was in fourth, the side-lined Coral Hurdle victor Buzz was in fifth and the International scorer Guard Your Dreams in sixth.

And Gary Moore has won this race, in various sponsorship guises, three times, most recently with 20/1 winner Violet Dancer in 2015.

All of those three have pretty incestuous form lines but, from a different form slant, Fleet Street looks pretty big at 19.018/1 on the exchange too, for all he went up 9lb for a win in a lesser handicap at Kempton last time.

But he was dominant there, his first start since October, during which he had his wind done, and he did beat a fair sort in The Brimming Water back in September.

I have decided to wait and revisit the race on Thursday but I will probably be back tomorrow with another ante-post piece and the list of double-entered horses for all ITV races (I have done them but you will have to wait).

Good luck.