Thursday ITV Racing Tips: A trio of bets for Welsh National Day

Altior wins, right?

Just when you thought it was a dose of "After The Lord Mayor's show" at Kempton on Thursday - a curious phrase that, given the last person to watch one must have been in the 18th Century - up rocks Altior in the Desert Orchid Chase at 14:30.

Everyone knows this 2m monster will win, and his odds reflect that, so let's move on quickly. We can all tip our hats to quality, but we don't have to bet on it at heavy odds-on.

Special Tiara is the obvious beneficiary if Altior fails to complete or fire, as he is a fellow Champion Chaser, a dual winner of this race (in 2014 and 2016), he will have his ground, and he always leaves his first run of the season well behind, in this case a modest third at Cork earlier in the month.

But he ain't no Altior.

I also struggled to get a bet out of the five-runner Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices' Chase at 13:20. I failed in fact.

Dynamite Dollars picks up a 5lb penalty for his Henry VIII win at Sandown last time, and that makes life very tough against Kalashnikov, who is unpenalised for his Class 3 wins at Warwick and Plumpton, and not surprisingly a shade of odds-on as a result. Maria's Benefit and Highway One O One are no slouches, either.

Is Momella chucked in?

The mares' handicap hurdle at 13:55 looks a bit more like it. Momella ducked the Grade 1 Long Walk at Ascot on Saturday, so she will probably be all the rage off a mark of 142.

She certainly wasn't beaten when coming to grief 2 out at Newbury last time, and her Graded form last season suggests that her mark is exceedingly exploitable.

Her odds of around 7/4 reflect that, however - though they are probably just about justified, in truth - and Shambra initially looked a viable alternative against her at a double-figure price, albeit she has a big stamina doubt to answer stepping up fully a mile from Hereford last time (though she has seen out 2m3f well).

The fact that the race has cut up to just seven runners has seen my interest wane, though.

Kilcrea Vale initially interested me in the handicap chase at 15:05, so I was tempted to side with him at 6/1+ on a Kempton card that hasn't thrown up many betting opportunities.

I've always had him down as a more of a good ground horse (despite wins in testing conditions), so he ran much better than I thought he would when third on soft in the Grand Sefton on his reappearance.

He has gone up 2lb for that, but the big potential negative is the step up to 3m, as all his best form has come over 2m5f and shorter. That stamina doubt has to led to me walking away.

Eddie has a great chance but don't rule out Dino

Dino Velvet and Eddiemaurice are my two against the field in the 15:35.

The 2m handicap hurdle may not be on ITV but I thought it was the most interesting betting heat of the day, so I am getting stuck in, especially as I couldn't find a bet in the terrestrial contests.

Eddiemaurice is my main fancy, as all his best form has come on right-handed tracks, and his performance in this race last season makes him a very interesting proposition indeed.

That day, he finished second to a well-handicapped horse in Kayf Grace, with the next-time-out winner Azzerti 8 lengths back in third, and he races off a 2lb lower mark here.

He ran perfectly well on ground far softer than ideal at Lingfield on his reappearance and I imagine this race has been the plan for a while; he was also beaten just 1 ½ lengths into fifth off a 6lb higher mark in this race in 2016. He looks weighted to play a big part in this renewal.

The stable haven't had a winner since October (unless Carp Kid wins at Wolverhampton later on Boxing Day afternoon) but that doesn't concern me unduly given the limited amount of runners they have had since. Back him at 14.013/1 or bigger.

Dino Velvet has slipped down to a decent mark again, and he is the one I fear most at the prices.

Dawson can go well at a big price in the Welsh National

The Welsh National at 14:50 is obviously the star attraction over at Chepstow.

I have no argument whatsoever with the claims of the market-leaders like Elegant Escape and Ramses De Teillee, but they are short enough now, and I am happy with a big-price play here in the shape of Dawson City at 34.033/1 or bigger.

I chucked a few quid at him in the Kelso 4-miler last time, and I thought he shaped well enough after jumping far too stickily early doors. His stamina didn't have time to kick in there, as daft as that comment seems.

That came on good ground and the softer going here - though it won't be as testing as your usual Welsh National - is undoubtedly is in his favour.

All his best form has come on soft or heavy, and he is only 6lb higher than when beating Shotgun Paddy in the 3m6f Devon National in February.

Williams runner worth a second look in ITV's opener

The 2m3f handicap chase at 13:05 kicks off ITV events Wales-way, and the fact that Venetia Williams has won this race five times out of the last six years make the trainer's selected runner an obvious port of call.

She had three in here at the five-day stage, including last year's winner Pressurize, but she has relied on Calipto (who also had the option of the 3m handicap chase at Kempton), and I can fully see why.

He didn't exactly have the kitchen sink thrown at him at Hereford last time, and so shaped pretty damn encouragingly in fifth, and he has come down another 2lb in the weights for it.

That now makes him just 6lb higher than when winning by 8 lengths over 2m4f at Carlisle three starts ago, and the runner-up won next time up.

He may ideally want better ground, but he has won on heavy in the past, so I am not overly-concerned.

I am not a massive fan of punting runners from the stable, as I can't read their MO, but Calipto does have a fair bit going for him and he rates a decent bet at 11.010/1 or bigger.

I did consider Doitforthevillage as a saver, but I was hoping for a bit more than around the 7/1 mark.

I wasn't wildly impressed by Adjali's Market Rasen win, and certainly not as the market would have you believe in the The Grade 1 Finale at 13:35.

Quel Destin is the solid one against him on form and on the clock, but there are just the five runners in here - and one of those is the JP McManus-owned French raider Arverne - and it doesn't shape like a betting race to me. Gordon Elliott had four in here at the five-day stage, but none of those have materialised.

The near-3m handicap hurdle at 14:10 rounds off betting affairs for the day but nothing stands out.

So I'll stick with just the three Thursday plays. Good luck.