Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a maiden sprinter at Newcastle

Back on a more suitable surface

Newcastle 18:00: Mother Shipton 1pt win 11/1

Mother Shipton was never in with a winning chance on either of her two starts at Haydock in the Autumn but she showed promise and I think she could be capable of making significant improvement this evening.

She was sent off favourite for her debut over six furlongs but her chance wasn't helped right at the start when Poetikel Piece went to her right coming out of the stalls and hampered her. Mother Shipton was then angled over to race at the back of the field down the middle of the course and raced greenly. She made a little headway while edging left after a couple of furlongs to track the leaders but couldn't go with them two furlongs out as the pace quickened.

She wasn't given a hard time in the closing stages and didn't drop away, finishing 5¾ lengths behind the winner. The first two home in that race are now rated 83 and 84 respectively.

She returned to the same track just over a month later to race over the same distance but this time on soft ground. She was slowly into stride and raced a bit keenly at the back of the field early on. She was pushed along at halfway but didn't make any progress and was beaten 8¼ lengths.

Mother Shipton's action suggests that she wouldn't be suited by any cut in the ground so it's no surprise that she didn't progress from the promise of her debut run under such conditions and I expect that the switch to an artificial surface this evening will be far more in her favour.

Given her obvious immaturity on debut, I think the three-month absence since her last start may have done her plenty of good too in allowing her time to mentally mature and that could result in a more professional and improved display today.

There is a concern that the apparent greenness on debut was more a case of her showing that she's not straightforward and she has to show that she can finish off a race well but I think she can be competitive in what is a fairly moderate maiden. Her price has shortened this morning but I think the market is still underestimating her chance in a race of this quality and any 10/1 or bigger appeals.