Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a 13/2 handicap debutant at Kempton

• Softening ground to suit

• Likely to be favourably positioned

• Rhys Williams thinks Moulins Clermont is overpriced at Kempton

Forecast rain to turn ground in his favour

Kempton 15:25: Moulins Clermont 1pt win 13/2

With rain forecast over the next few hours at Kempton, the ground is likely to turn softer than the current good to soft, soft in places and that will suit Moulins Clermont who has a good chance to add to his two victories from last season.

He started his career in France and ran well on debut with cut in the ground at Compiegne to finish third despite clear signs of greenness.

He joined Gary Moore following that promising run and was sent off evens at Fontwell on his stable debut but disappointed there on good ground before bouncing back in style at Sandown next time. That was on heavy ground and after making the running from an early stage, he drew clear of Malakahna with ease after jumping 2 out and went on to win by thirteen lengths.

Moulins Clermont ran poorly next time at Cheltenham when in tougher company before ending the season with a victory in a three-runner race at Fakenham when stepped up to 2m4f.

His action and form suggest he wants testing ground to be at his best whereas I'm not sure some of his rivals will necessarily be suited by the softening ground, Grivetana being the most notable example of that (the ground wasn't even close to very soft on her debut at Cagnes Sur Mer). Moulins Clermont may also find himself favourably positioned if they make the running again as he might not face too much pressure for the lead and Niall Houlihan can set the pace to suit himself. That may not help the chance of American Gerry who benefitted from a pace collapse when winning over C&D last time.

It is a bit worrying just how in and out Moulins Clermont's form was last season so it might be that he's just unreliable and there is a chance he could be keener than ideal on his first start of the season but I think he has plenty in his favour today and any 11/2 or bigger appeals.