Rhys Williams has analysed Tuesday's racing and has two selections at double-figure prices at Southwell.
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Positive jockey switch on Be Fair
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Harry The Norseman inconsistent but has ability
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Rhys Williams thinks Be Fair and Harry The Norseman are overpriced at Southwell
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Eyecatching last two runs on the flat
Southwell 15:13: Be Fair 1pt e/w 12/1
Be Fair returns to the flat this afternoon after finishing well beaten over hurdles at Hereford last time and I think he's capable of running well at a double-figure price.
He only finished sixth when last seen on the flat at this track over 1m4f but he had an inexperienced jockey in the saddle that day and after being held up, his path was blocked on the final bend and he could only plug on late without ever looking like getting competitive.
Prior to that he had made late headway over the same trip at Lingfield when finishing third after not getting a clear run approaching the final bend and he had to be switched very wide before running on late.
Be Fair has won over 1m6f at Wolverhampton and run well in defeat over the same trip at Chelmsford and I think the return to this trip and a far more experienced jockey being in the saddle can bring a return to a better level of form from him.
He doesn't do anything quickly and does ideally need a good pace to close into but I think he's overpriced in a race of this quality and any 10/1 or bigger appeals.
Bounce back possible in more suitable conditions
Southwell 15:13: Harry The Norseman 0.5pt win 50/1
At a huge price I can't let Harry The Norseman go unbacked. He finished tailed off when last seen on the flat at Catterick but that was on heavy ground. He was very disappointing when third favourite over this C&D in July but he wasn't travelling from a long way out that day and the 74-day break after suggests it may have been more than kickback that was the issue.
Prior to that he had run well on his first three starts for this yard, finishing second twice and winning over 1m6f at Bath off a 4lb lower mark than he races off today. His run over hurdles at Uttoxeter prior to the Catterick effort suggests that he still retains ability and I wouldn't be as shocked as the market if he suddenly bounced back under these more suitable conditions. Any 33/1 or bigger appeals.