Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams has a 50/1 NAP on nursery debut at Dundalk

• Showed some promise on debut

• Unsuitable ground on last two starts

• Rhys Williams thinks Scat Maggie is overpriced at Dundalk

On more suitable surface for nursery debut

Dundalk 15:00: Scat Maggie 1pt win 50/1

Scat Maggie has been beaten over 10 lengths on all three starts so far but I think she has a chance of being more competitive than the market suggests on nursery debut today.

She made her debut over six furlongs at the Curragh and showed a bit of ability. Having travelled well in midfield through the first half of the race, she was outpaced and dropped towards the rear two furlongs out. However, once coming under pressure she stayed on late, despite being hampered, to finish eleventh.

Scat Maggie's two runs since have come on more testing ground at Naas and Leopardstown and she's failed to build on the debut promise as a result. She couldn't pick up under pressure at Naas while at Leopardstown last time, she was allowed to gradually drift to the back of the field leaving the back straight and looked green on the bend.

Scat Maggie's action suggests this will be a far more suitable surface for her than the ground she's raced on recently and the ability she showed on debut suggests she could be competitive off this very lowly mark on nursery debut. Blinkers also go on for the first time which may bring improvement too.

It may be that she's just gone backwards from her debut but I think she's overpriced in a race of this low quality given her potential for improvement and any 25/1 or bigger appeals.