Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams has a 200/1 fancy at Limerick

Limerick
Our racing expert has two selections on Tuesday

Rhys Williams has analysed Tuesday's racing and has two selections at Limerick.

  • Any Alibis' race lacking depth in quality

  • Some promise from Costanuci last season

  • Rhys Williams thinks Any Alibis and Costanuci are overpriced at Limerick


Potential for improvement in very weak race

Limerick 12:45: Any Alibis 0.5pt e/w 200/1

This is a very weak maiden hurdle with the two heading the market setting only a fair standard and one of those having questions to answer over the ground. It wouldn't surprise me if something at a big price was capable of running better than expected and I'm hoping that will be 200/1 shot Any Alibis.

He's only had one start in his career which was back in March 2020 in a point to point bumper at Buckfastleigh. He was in the care of Gearoid Costelloe at the time and was owned by Sean Doyle at a time when Costelloe's horses were primarily being run with a view to selling.

Any Alibis raced in the leading group of five down the back straight for the final time but once coming under pressure shortly before turning out of the back straight, he was soon left behind but didn't drop away completely and finished fifth.

The winner of that race was Sun Rising Hill who won a bumper under rules next time and was then beaten by Martello Sky. The runner up was Fevertre who reached a peak of 109 over hurdles, the third was Salvino who won a novice hurdle earlier this month and is rated 118 while the fourth had run well on debut behind subsequent hurdle winner Raffle Ticket.

Any Alibis now reappears 982 days later in the care of Jimmy Finn. That he is being persevered with after such a long absence suggests he must at least be showing a bit of ability and hopefully whatever issue has kept him off the track for that time won't show up in the race today.

It might be that doesn't retain any ability after that long break and will show nothing today but unlike some in this race I think he at least has the potential to be better than he's shown and is a ridiculous price in such a weak race. Any 40/1 or bigger appeals.


Showed some ability on first two starts

Limerick 15:45: Costanuci 0.5pt e/w 33/1

Shecouldbeanything is odds-on in the bumper after a very comfortable victory on debut at Loughanmore. That was a good rather than spectacular performance and rather than take a short price about her, I think there's one at a big price whose chance the market is underestimating.

Costanuci showed enough ability in her first two starts last season to suggest she could run well in a race of this quality. On her debut at Tramore, she was given a very patient ride before making some late headway to finish fifth behind a horse who went on to run in the Champion Bumper and three horses who are now rated 128 or 129 over hurdles.

She was switched to hurdling next time at Naas and again made some eyecatching late headway having looked green at various stages of the race before showing little on her third start at Cork in very testing conditions.

She's now switched back to a bumper and her rider now has a bit more experience than when she rode the mare at Tramore which will help Costanuci's cause.

This also looks a weaker contest than that one and she looks open to improvement so could be more competitive today than the market suggests. Any 20/1 or bigger appeals.

Recommended bets

RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2022

Staked: 309.50pts

Returned: 436.76pts

P/L: +127.26pts

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