Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 11/1 Watson filly to improve on nursery debut at Kempton

Our racing expert has one selection on Friday

Rhys Williams has analysed Friday's racing and has a sole selection at a double-figure price at Kempton...

  • Eyecatching third run

  • Step up to a mile to suit if settling

  • Rhys Williams thinks Probable is overpriced at Kempton

Potential to improve for longer trip

Kempton 16:40: Probable 1pt win 11/1

Probable has only beaten seven rivals in her three starts so far but she's shaped as though capable of better and I'm hoping that improvement will be forthcoming on her nursery debut today.

She was green and stayed on the slowest part of the track when unable to get competitive on debut at Chelmsford over six furlongs.

She was stepped up to seven furlongs next time at Newcastle but was stuck without cover and raced a bit keenly early on. Pushed along two furlongs out, she was quickly left behind by the leaders but didn't drop away completely late on suggesting she may improve for a longer trip.

Probable was dropped back to six furlongs at Wolverhampton for her third start and was dropped out towards the back of the field. She raced keenly out wide before switching to the rails turning the bend in second last. She wasn't given a hard time in the home straight but despite that she clocked the third quickest final two furlongs in the field.

If she settles I think the step up to a mile is likely to bring improvement from Probable and the reapplication of a hood and potential for a fairly good pace helps her chance of being able to relax better in the first half of the race. This doesn't look a nursery filled with potential improvers and she could have more to offer starting off in handicaps at a lowly level.

It might be that she won't settle and that will hinder her chance or that her ability will only show in the longer term as she mentally matures but I think the market is underestimating her chance in a race of this quality and any double-figure prices appeal.

Recommended bets


Staked: 307.50pts

Returned: 436.76pts

P/L: +129.26pts

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