Sunday Racing Tips: Back Vorda to win Foret and Gibraltar to be Prince of Longchamp

The rain arrived across the country today to totally change the betting landscape but at least we can focus on the Arc card on Sunday confident in the knowledge that the ground will be no worse than good, and possibly on the fast side.

As I told members of the London Racing Club at an enjoyable meeting on Thursday night, I backed Prince Gibraltar at 40-1 at the start of the week, and still think he is fair value at odds of 36.035/1 in the big one at 15:30.

I must admit that I wasn't expecting connections to reach for the headgear for the first time but if Jean-Claude Rouget thinks that they will bring about improvement, then all the better.

Because Prince Gibraltar was being talked up as possibly the best 3yo in France after winning a Group 2 in May, and I reckon you can make excuses for his three subsequent defeats.

He was clearly given too much to do when a strong-finishing third in the French Derby and again I thought a stronger ride would had seen him win the Grand Prix de Paris next time.

But that was still a decent effort to be just touched off in a photo there - he was 2 ½ lengths clear of the narrow Niel runner-up Teletext - and he wasn't suited by 1m2f in heavy ground last time.

He has been freshened up with a seven-week break, and I believe that 1m4f on decent ground is what this colt wants, and he is well positioned in stall nine. If he is ridden more prominently today, than I expect a big run.

I will also be backing Flintshire at 29.028/1.

He was one of a number of horses ridden with both eyes firmly on this race when second in the Foy last month, and Arc master Andre Fabre will have him at concert pitch.

When this horse gets good ground, he is a decent weapon, as he showed when winning the Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance last season and when second to Cirrus Des Aigles in the Coronation Cup on his reappearance, where he was unlikely to have been hard-fit.

I expect a career-best from him today, and he is nicely drawn in four.

At the top end of the market, I fancy Avenir Certain most, but I am happy to going into bat with the two outsiders.

The horse that I am most interested in on Sunday is probably Vorda in the Foret at 16:50.

It is obviously disappointing to see her drawn 15 of 16, but at least we get the compensation of a bigger price as a result and I cannot let her go unbacked at odds of 21.020/1 and bigger.

I backed her in the Maurice De Gheest last time despite the fact that the combination of heavy ground and being drawn one were not ideal.

And, quite frankly, given a more positive ride I think she should have won. Go and look at the video of that race. And clearly some in-running punters agreed too, because she actually traded at odds-on, albeit somewhat bizarrely.

She won last year's Cheveley Park on fast ground and didn't last home in the Breeders Cup Fillies Mile or the 1,000 Guineas subsequently, and I think 7f on good or faster ground are this filly's ideal conditions.

The draw clearly is a negative but everything is in place for her to run a big race at a very big price. I'll probably be having my biggest bet of the day on her.

Back over 5f on good ground from stall 3, I give Take Cover a better chance than odds of 12.523/2 suggest in the Abbaye at 13:00.

Hopefully he can blast out from the front, dominate on the rail, and avoid the trouble that is common place in this race. And if coming back to the form of his King George Stakes win at Goodwood or his earlier York defeat of subsequent Haydock Sprint Cup winner G Force then he is in with a big shout here.

Sole Power is obviously the one to beat but his come-from-behind style of racing could be very problematical in this 19-runner race.

I won't be having any other bets on the card, but I will run you through my other thoughts on the races.

I genuinely don't have an opinion on the Boussac, but I think that odds of around 20-1 could underestimate the chances of War Envoy in the Lagardere. In fact, the front two in the market could be worth laying combined here, and then you can have the field running for you.

I think Tarfasha is a worthy favourite in the L'Opera, but I don't have any strong views in the Cadran. I would have sided with Whiplash Willie there, but I fear that the ground could be too fast for him here.

Good luck.

Recommended Bets (all Longchamp)

Back Prince Gibraltar at 36.035/1 in the 15:30
Back Flintshire @ 29.028/1 or better in the 15:30
Back Vorda @ 21.020/1 or bigger in the 16:50
Back Take Cover @ 12.523/2 or bigger in the 13:00