St Leger Meeting Day Three Tips: Adventure Seeker seeks canny punter

Down the years, I have usually been pretty calm when it comes to punting - no-one in my household has tended to know whether I have won or lost after a race or a rugby match, even if I have gone for a biggie - but I have to admit that I was screaming at the TV like a raging lunatic as Adventure Seeker came with what I thought was a winning challenge in the Melrose at York last month.
 
I had gone for a proper touch on the horse, it was duly backed from 25/1 to 8/1, and I was convinced that he was coming to win the race in the final furlong, as were a few Betfair punters too, as he was backed at an in-running low of 1.341/3 at that stage.
 
Cue a litany of four-letter words of encouragement which, quite frankly, quickly transcended into utter filth, as the horse could only finish second. I am still picking up bits of Vicks Sinex, which I was holding for some reason - well, I was before I launched it against the wall, that is, with no little gusto - in the kitchen now.
 
It is fair to say that my eldest son, watching this open-mouthed, didn't ask if I had backed the winner.
 
God knows what I would have done if I had just backed it win only.
 
It just goes to show that betting can make fools of us, in many ways, and horses can too. As regular backers of Burano can pay testament to.

14:10 Doncaster - Adventure Seeker

So do I go in again on Adventure Seeker off a 6lb higher mark in the 14:10 and at a much shorter price? The temptation in these circumstances is to think its tipping time has come and gone, and move on to the next hard luck story.
 
But I am not going to do that. The Melrose is very strong form and I think there is more to come from Ed Walker's three-year-old, even though I am very wary of Stomachion now he steps up in trip.
 
Back Adventure Seeker at odds of 7.26/1 or bigger. If he wins, I will buy myself a new Vicks Sinex as I am a bit sniffly at the moment.

14:40 Doncaster - Whiplash Willie and Angel Gabrial

It appears that the Estimate camp are very confident of the mare getting her head in front for the first time this season in the Doncaster Cup  and she has the best credentials.
 
But I am not enamoured by the price of around 2.56/4, and I have my doubts.
 
Yes, she ran perfectly well - and had Times Up and Angel Gabrial well behind - when second to the progressive Pale Mimosa at York last time but I am keen to take her on.
 
Firstly, she doesn't have much in hand of three or four of these on official figures. And, secondly, I just wonder whether a hard race first time up in the Gold Cup at Ascot, after an interrupted preparation, has left its mark on her.
 
She clearly ran no race at Goodwood next time - whether you blame the course or the fact that she was in season - and had another hard race at York last time, where Ryan Moore had to get after her from a long way out as she was never travelling. It could be that she needs a break to freshen her up, and this is a race too far for her.
 
The problem is what to take her on with, as there are plenty of options. Clever Cookie looked as if a step up in trip would suit when a staying-on sixth in the Ebor last time, but lasting home over an extra half mile is a big ask.
 
I don't think Angel Gabrial been ideally positioned in his two races since running away with the Northumberland Plate off a mark of 96. He raced out wide at Goodwood next time, and wasn't favoured by racing on the far side when three lengths behind Estimate at York.
 
In short, I think that he is better than he has shown on his last two starts, and this quickening ground holds no fears for him.
 
For reasons that I explain below, I am going with a two-pronged attack in this, along with Whiplash Willie, although I suspect that I may end up with just the one play.
 
Whiplash Willie would like more rain, but good ground should be OK for him judged on his 2011 form before he was forced off the track for nearly three years with tendon problems, though I appreciate those issues may have seen his preference, if not need, for cut increase.
 
One thing is for sure. Whiplash Willie has returned better than ever after his lengthy break, and time may tell that he was attempting the impossible trying to give 17lb to three-year-old Big Orange - who is apparently going for a Group 2 staying race on Arc weekend - over 1m5f on good to soft ground at Chester last time.
 
The step up to 2m2f is an unknown but he wasn't stopping when third to Brown Panther in the Henry II over 2m at Sandown back in May.
 
I imagine connections will pull him out if they deem the ground gets too fast tomorrow, as they have done on a few occasions this season, hence I'm going in two-handed with Angel Gabrial. If they both run, then I'm more than happy.
 
Back Whiplash Willieat odds of 9.08/1  and Angel Gabrial at odds of 12.011/1.
 
The Flying Childers at 13:40 has to be filed in the "too hard for me to solve" tray. Around half of the 15 runners are rated within 6lb of each other, and I found it impossible to get a betting handle on the contest.
 
And similar comments apply to the two-year-old fillies contest, the May Hill Stakes, at 15:15. There may be far less runners but it is no less trappy and difficult to solve. No bet, and the same applies in the 15:45.
 
In fact, I will tell you the truth. I was in the middle of tipping Doc Hay before I remembered he was running in the last today!
 
In the two races at Doncaster after Channel 4 go off air, all eyes will be on White Lake in the 16:25 after his taking debut win at York last month.
 
If horses from the Luca Cumani stable win first time up as a two-year-old they tend to turn out to be very decent indeed - the likes of High-Rise and Barathea to name just two - and there is little doubt that he looked a very promising prospect when winning on his debut at York.
 
But I'm a contrary soul, and I certainly wouldn't be jumping in at short odds, and personally I wouldn't underestimate Toocoolforschool.
 
He is the clear form choice on his narrow second in the Acomb last time, and the fifth horse there, Salateen, bolted up off a mark of 92 in a nursery here on Wednesday.
 
It isn't a given that White Lake will find the 10lb or so improvement to beat him, and that is if Toocoolforschool stands still.
 
So, if you are thinking of going in heavily on the Cumani juvenile, I would advise caution. 

Especially if you are holding a Vicks Sinex.
 

Recommended Bets
Back Adventure Seeker at 7.26/1 or bigger in the 14:10 at Doncaster
Back Whiplash Willie at 9.08/1 or bigger and Angel Gabrial at 12.011/1 or bigger in the 14:40 at Doncaster