St Leger Meeting Day One Tips: Commanche can get his rivals on the run at Doncaster

No Channel 4 coverage at Doncaster tomorrow - I'm not sure when terrestrial coverage on the opening day of the St Leger meeting bit the dust - but the good news is that I'm here all week.

Or not, if you have been following my tips in the last fortnight or so.

I never shy away from holding my hands up and fail to mention losing runs - they are part and parcel of the game when you try to avoid the obvious at short prices - and the key is to remain consistent and level-headed (I have little option other than to remain bald-headed, too).

And, blowing one's trumpet, hopefully we do have enough in the bank to see us through this barren spell after a fairly decent summer of tipping.

So, no going all-in on Angelic Lord for me in the 14:30, or siding with Clon Brulee in the 16:10, just to get a morale-boosting winner on the board.

Or getting involved in the Legends race and Tiger Jim at 15:35, or playing in the opening nursery at 14:00 either, even though I suspect the handicapper has been pretty kind to Salateen in only raising him 2lb for his fifth in the Acomb at York.

No, the horse that really interests me, and one that I think should be clear favourite, is Commanche in the 17:15.

It was rather galling to see one firm put him in at 16-1 when the betting opened early this evening and being able to do nothing about it - though to be fair others went 14s, which also soon disappeared - but, like I said, I thought that he would be the market leader at single-figure odds.

And he could well be by the off.

He bumped into a well-handicapped horse when second over 6f at Yarmouth last time - his best run for a while - and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Chris Dwyer has had this race in mind for the horse for some while.

Because he was only just touched off by a neck in this last season on good to soft ground, the pair three lengths clear, and that run came off a 3lb higher mark.

So he comes into this race, returning to form - it should be noted that the horse that beat him last time had run off a 12lb higher mark on the all-weather the start before - and last year's second wasn't his only good run here. He was only beaten ½ length when second in a 17-runner handicap over 6f here in May, and finished third here as a 2yo.

Back him at odds of 12.011/1 or bigger. There is still enough juice in that price to get me, and you, interested.

I am going to chuck a couple of quid at Expert at similar odds in the 16:45.

Marmoom is clearly a massive danger but Expert has been sliding down the weights without running too badly, and is handicapped to win this if returning to his second to Danzeno at Newmarket in April. And 7f with a bit of cut is just the job, as is the booking of Ryan Moore.

Back him at 10.09/1 or bigger.

I'm keen to take on 3.02/1 market leader Reckless Abandon in the Scarborough Stakes at 15:00, and will be doing so with Steps and Monsieur Joe at odds of 8.415/2 and 21.020/1 respectively.

The key point to make about this race is that there looks to be a real burn-up in the offing with the favourite, B Fifty Two, Noble Storm and Demora all liking to set the pace, and at least a couple of others are set to lie very handy, too.

So I looked for a closer, and Steps fits the bill.

He does have a 3lb penalty for a Haydock listed race win earlier in the season, but is considerably eased in class after running in the Nunthorpe last time and could prove a tough nut to crack on the form of his King's Stand sixth or a luckless fourth off a mark of 109 at Epsom in June. His stable won this race with Justineo last season.

Monsieur Joe is less obvious, hence the price, but he is another who is best coming off a fast pace and he is no 20-1 poke here if coming back to the form of his handicap win off 100 at York in May, and he was beaten under five lengths in the Nunthorpe last time.

Recommended Bets (all Doncaster)

Back Commanche @ 12.011/1 or bigger in the 17:15
Back Expert @ 10.09/1 or bigger in the 16:45
Back Steps @ 8.415/2 or bigger in the 15:00
Back Monsieur Joe @ 21.020/1 or bigger in the 15:00