Ryan Moore made an interesting point in his Betfair column today (that's Wednesday, if you are reading this on Thursday...) that he favours horses at Doncaster who have already shown form at Ascot, arguing that both of the courses have recently been re-laid and are even surfaces that ride similarly.
And that informed, if anecdotal observation, was given further credence by that wise old owl @NotTooFar Mick Stone, who tweeted in response that "the data suggests the theory narrowly holds Ascot to Doncaster but not the other way round. But sample sizes only around 200."
Doncaster 14:10 - Nargys
It is probably not that relevant if you are thinking of backing Nargys in the 14:10, as she has already shown her liking for this track, albeit at a much lesser level, when finishing second off a mark of 82 in a 7f handicap at this meeting last year.
But if you are tipping the Luca Cumani filly, you will mention any positive fact at all to justify your case. And I am. Because the case pretty much rests on one run at Ascot.
Admittedly, she also went on to prove herself a classy juvenile when second to Just The Judge in the Group 2 7f Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket last season. But in four of her five starts this season you would have fancied Hercules, of Steptoe and Son fame, to give her a stone and a beating.
However, go and have a look at the video of her fourth to Annecdote in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot and tell me that she isn't the most talented filly in here. You couldn't. Because she is. And she won't mind cut in the ground, either.
Now, she is also the most inconsistent, and possibly with a touch of attitude thrown in too, and the first time visor didn't work at Pontefract last time. But that is why we can back her at around 15.014/1; she would have been half that price if coming here straight from Ascot.
And it may be that she reserves her best for a straight track like Doncaster, where her jockey can try and angle her away from other horses, as she may not be the heartiest battler alongside others. Her only win to date came when she was brought stands' side away from others at Yarmouth last season.
Not too far, now, Nargys.
You won't often find me tipping or backing unlucky-in-running horses next time out, as they are simply overbet and overtipped. So I am going to reluctantly pass on likely favourite Les Gar Gan, owned by the ever-impressive Middleham Park Racing syndicate, in the nursery.
If she had got a clear run at Hamilton last time, she would have gone up a sight more than the 2lb she did for that unlucky defeat, and it was a decent time there, too.
I can't put anyone off her, but it's not my kind of bet. Too obvious, if that doesn't make me sound like a smart arse. Which, upon proof reading, it does, by the way.
I was half-tempted by Ben Hall in the sales race but, in truth, I was juggling about six selections at various points. And, when that is the case, it is always best to walk away from betting on a race.
I think it is devilishly difficult to make a case out for anything other than Seal Of Approval in what you could charitably call a "winnable" Park Hill Stakes, featuring some out of form and pretty moderate, in Group 2 terms at least, horses.
She is seemingly the only progressive horse in the line-up but I can't get excited about her at the likely price, especially as she probably wouldn't be good enough if two of three of the others, such as Jehannedarc, return to form. I'll pass again.
Doncaster 16:25 - Enderby Spirit
Away from the Channel 4 races there are a couple of outsiders worth looking at, both with proven form with a bit of cut. First up is Enderby Spirit in the 16:25.
Seven of his 29 starts have been at this track, and some of his better ones too, notably his course and distance win off a mark of 90 two seasons ago.
He has clearly had his issues in the interim - he missed the whole of last season - and is not in anything like that kind of form since his return to the track. But there was a fair bit of promise in his 33-1 sixth in the "greys only" race at Newmarket last time, and he has slipped down to a very enticing mark of 82 on his return to his old stomping ground.
Ideally, he wouldn't want it really testing but it is worth the risk at the price and he is worth a small-stakes nibble at around 25.024/1.
Doncaster 17:00 - Black Spirit
Black Spirit has a similar profile to Enderby Spirit in that he goes well here - his course form figures of 431 actually include a win in this race last year - and has dropped to an attractive mark after three below par efforts this season. Now, they have been pretty poor I admit, and this is about 10 times more competitive than the six-runner-race he won here last season. And he could quite easily blow out again.
But he steps back to more realistic handicap company today after mixing it in listed and Group company - he did win a Group 3 last season but it was a weak four-runner race - and does so on a very winnable mark. He is worth chancing; he has proven form in the soft.
Nargys @ 15.014/1 or better - 14:10 Doncaster
Enderby Spirit @ 25.024/1 or better - 16:25 Doncaster
Black Spirit @ 25.024/1 or better - 17:00 Doncaster