Channel 4 Races

Saturday Racing Tips: Bolt can blast home at Sandown

Saturday Racing Tips: Bolt can blast home at Sandown
We begin and end at Sandown on Saturday

"The handicapper has been very lenient indeed in only raising Forgotten Hero 3lb for a 1¾ length win at Ascot last time and he could be a cut above these."

Back Forgotten Hero @ 10.09/1 and Rydan @ 16.015/1 or better in the 15:50 at Sandown
 

Tony Calvin is sniffing out the big priced winners once again and he takes in races at Sandown, Chester and Beverley in his search for Saturday success...

Usain hasn't enjoyed the smoothest of years - injury curtailing the rest of his 2014 running plans earlier in the week - and the same has been true of his equine namesake Jamaican Bolt, who initially looked set for a good season after two good opening outings in May, particularly when sixth over 6f at York in May, a trip which stretches his stamina.
 
But, despite putting up a couple of solid efforts on the book since, he hasn't travelled into his races with any real fluency and that was again in evidence when he stayed on grittily to finish third at Doncaster on good ground last time. 
 
Perhaps I am being a bit too harsh on him though, especially as I am convinced that he has races in him off a 5lb lower mark than that good sixth at York, and hopefully the ground doesn't dry out too much for this mud-lover.
 
A lot of people will see being drawn 17 of 17 as a big negative here, and that is probably why we are getting odds of 12.011/1 about him in the 14:05 opener at Sandown.
  
That doesn't overly-concern me, as he would be dropped in any way from a lower stall given his current run-style - though he has travelled and made all in the past - and there should be plenty of pace on here with the likes of Evens Stevens and Judge N' Jury blasting out, so expect Jamaican Bolt to be finishing strongly over this stiff 5f.
 
No Kingman or Raven's Pass in the Solario at 14:40, but at least it is competitive. 
 
I don't have a firm opinion on the race - I rarely do in juvenile races, where nearly every horse has the capacity for some improvement - but if I was betting I would be probably side with Pallister, who looks pretty big at around 8-1 considering he is down in class after mixing with it with Highland Reel and Tupi in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last time.
 
The Group 3 Fillies and Mares at 15:15 is equally competitive, though I suspect that Andre Fabre's Fintry could be a cut above, even carrying a 7lb penalty for her Group 2 win at Chantilly in June.
 
But the market rarely mistakes with Fabre raiders, and that is the case again here with Fintry priced up at around the even money mark. At the prices, Odeliz makes more betting appeal, but this is another sit-out for me.
 
I was tossing up between Forgotten Hero and Rydan in the 1m2f handicap at 15:50 but after a lot of deliberation I eventually sided with both.

Firstly, back Rydan at odds of 16.015/1 or better.
 
He has run two excellent races on fast ground in defeat since winning over course and distance, though to many that will suggest the handicapper may now has his measure after raising him 6lb for that victory. And, especially so here, given that he runs from 3lb out of the handicap.
 
But I think that a combination of softer ground and a return forcing tactics from stall four can see him improve again.
 
He ran well in two soft-ground Windsor maidens earlier in the season - they were won by Cannock Chase and Honour Bound - and traded at 1.141/7 in the run when just collared close home under a forcing ride against the latter.
 
And I think Hector Crouch, seen to good effect of Whinging Willie at Brighton recently, is decent value for his 7lb claim.
 
I have to have a saver on Forgotten Hero, too, as odds of 10.09/1 or better. Simply put, the handicapper has been very lenient indeed in only raising him 3lb for a 1¾ length win at Ascot last time and he could be a cut above these.
 
There is a cracking turn-out for the Beverley Bullet at 14:25 and there is little doubt Pearl Secret is the form stand-out on his King's Stand third on good ground last season or his Temple Stakes second to Hot Streak at Haydock in May.
 
And it would be a timely winner for Qatar Racing and Jamie Spencer following last week's news. And maybe a welcome one too, given this race saw Spencer come in for a lot of criticism, unfairly in my opinion, for his ride on runner-up York Glory last season.
 
But I reckon that he could be foiled again as Willbeme makes some appeal at odds of 15.014/1 and bigger.
 
She has an awful lot to find with Pearl Secret and a few of these on official ratings, but she is a fast-improving, course and distance winner who ran a career-best when fourth over 6f at York last time, and one who will be suited by a return to the minimum trip and fast ground.
 
She may be flying a bit too high here, but I am willing to find out at the price.
 
Chester is not my favourite punting track, in truth, as you have to take below the odds to get with the well-drawn obvious ones, and if you take a flier with a horse in an outside berth, you are normally rewarded with a hard luck story.
 
Or a non-runner, obviously.
 
So do I reluctantly let Confessional, drawn 13 of 13, go unbacked in the 5f handicap at 14:20.
 
The answer is yes, and no bet either in the 15:30, too, though Special Meaning would get my marginal vote there.
 
However, I cannot resist a couple of quid on Alejandro from stall nine in the extended 7f handicap at 14.55.
 
A winner here as a juvenile, he has been a regular at the course since, and he comes here in the form of his life after winning at York last month, a race in which Ebor meeting winner Short Squeeze was back in fourth.
 
Off just a 4lb higher mark, this pacey sort could make them all go if getting to the head of affairs from his wide berth. 
 
Call me Gaga, ladies, but I think Alejandro may just do it and is worth backing at 9.08/1 or bigger.


Recommended Bets 
Back Jamaican Bolt @ 12.011/1 or better in the 14:05 at Sandown 
Back Willbeme @ 15.014/1 in the 14:25 at Beverley 
Back Alejandro @ 9.08/1 in the 14:55 at Chester 
Back Forgotten Hero @ 10.09/1 and Rydan @ 16.015/1 or better in the 15:50 at Sandown
 

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Tony Calvin

Horse racing expert

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.