Saturday Racing Tips: High-flying Morrison can score us a big winner with Kite

Some racing analysts like RUK's James Willoughby tend to dismiss trainer form as a statistical blip or irrelevance, but I don't. And it is the well-being of the Hughie Morrison stable that leads me to tip Chil The Kite at 26.025/1 in what is admittedly a ridiculously competitive 29-runner Victoria Cup in Ascot's 15:45.

Going into today's racing, the form figures of Morrison's runners in May read 11213112 - and you can argue that his three losers were all unlucky to a degree - and I don't think you can ignore those statistics. Especially after his outsider of four won the Dee Stakes today.

And while Chil The Kite is obviously more exposed than others in here, we also know that he is a top-class handicapper who excels at this course and is on a winnable mark.

There is a nagging doubt that Morrison won't have him tuned up here with a long season ahead. But that is where the stable form soothes the fears somewhat, and Chil The Kite has run well when fresh in the past, notably when third in a Group 2 at Sandown on his reappearance in 2013 and when returning from a two month break to win a valuable 7f handicap at Newbury last season.

And we know how much he loves Ascot.

He is a course winner who ran a career-best when second off 109 in the Hunt Cup last summer - he would have bustled up the winner with a clearer run - and he can off race that mark again, despite rounding off last season with a good sixth on unsuitably heavy ground on Champions Day in October.

The handicapper has also given Hawkeyethenoo a chance off 93, and the old-stager is worth a nibble at 44.043/1.

He won this race in 2011 and is obviously getting on a bit as a 9yo now, but I thought that there was more than enough promise in his run at Haydock last time, and the added bonus is that he was dropped 2lb for it.

He gets in at the bottom of the weights here, has solid course form, and Hector Couch, seen to good effect when steering Directorship to victory here last week, is fair value for his 7lb claim.

I imagine Penhill will be all the rage in the Ascot opener at 14:00 having joined Luca Cumani from James Bethell.

Renowned punter Tony Bloom paid 230,000gns for the horse who is very well-treated on his runaway Ripon win last summer, and it is easy to see the 4yo improving this season.

But the question mark is whether new connections have their eyes on bigger prizes down the line - maybe even Melbourne Cup as an end destination - and it wasn't any surprise that Cumani didn't give much away in a Racing Post stable tour earlier in the week.

I come once again to stable form though, and the fact Cumani's horses are going so well recently - if they haven't been winning, they have been going close - means that I couldn't put you off backing him. Far from it.

But there isn't that much juice in his current price of around 4-1, so I am going to put up Grumeti at odds of 17.016/1.

Now, it does take a leap of faith to back this one, especially as he was last seen being pulled up in the Grand Annual in March and hasn't raced on the Flat for nearly three years.

But Alan King does really well with his small string of Flat horses, and it is very interesting that he brings back Grumeti in the race that he won three years ago, under today's jockey Jimmy Fortune.

I initially wondered whether King may have tweaked his breathing since Cheltenham, a move he adopted to great effect when Chatez won the Spring Mile after being pulled up at Huntingdon the previous month.

There was no mention of that in an update on the stable website though - King thought the first-time blinkers were to blame for the Cheltenham disappointment - but he has been freshened up and, while not dropped massively for his Flat absence, he returns here on a fair mark.

Nothing jumps out at me in the listed race at 14:35 and the same is true of the 1m handicap at 15:10.

However, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest were the money to come for Amazing Maria on his first start for David O'Meara, though he wasn't divulging too much either in the trade paper on Thursday. She is on a very attractive mark on her 2013 form, and she could easily outclass these on her first start in a handicap after contesting Group races when with Ed Dunlop for the past two seasons.

Predictably, though, she hasn't been missed in the market - the days of when O'Meara switchers represented value have long gone - even at this early betting stage.

I wouldn't be the biggest fan of playing in Classic Trials where nearly all the runners are unexposed, but I can't resist a win and place bet on Viva Ma Fille in the 14:20.

The odds-on favourite Wedding Vow obviously sets the form standard on her second to the subsequent 1,000 Guineas winner at Gowran Park last month, and this longer trip should be right up her strasse on breeding.

But she wouldn't be the first filly to disappoint at Lingfield - and it is interesting to note that Aidan O'Brien has been a rare supporter of this race since winning it for the only time in 2004 - and I give Viva Ma Fille an outside chance of causing an upset.

Yes, she has been plying her trade in small fields, some way below this level, in her three starts to date. But what we have is a filly who is fit and a guaranteed stayer, who won here on the all-weather on her debut in March, and who bumped into an improving sort in a Pontefract handicap last time.

Okay, that was only off a mark of 78, but that was run in a decent time and she is improving, and I can see her shocking some 'sexier' types.

Back her at 30.029/1 in the win and 6.05/1 in the place.

The jumps never leaves us it seems and Arzal could be the answer to the old Swinton at odds of 10.09/1 at 15:25.

He would have finished closer had he not been hampered when sixth in the Betfair Hurdle and apparently came back with a "nasty gash" when pulled up at Sandown.

So he has had excuses for those efforts, for which he has come down 3lb in the weights, and he warmed up for this contest with an easy win at odds of 4-9 at Chepstow last month.

He is towards the top of the market, but justifiably so.


Recommended Bets
Back Grumeti at 17.016/1 in the 14:00 at Ascot
Back Vive Ma Fille at 30.029/1 in win and 6.05/1 in place at 14:20 Lingfield
Back Arzal at 10.09/1 in the 15:25 at Haydock
Back Chil The Kite at 26.025/1 in 15:45 at Ascot
Back Hawkeyethenoo at 44.043/1 in 15:45 at Ascot