Saturday Racing Tips: Emperor's Choice worth another chance

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One of my pet betting hates - and, if truth to be told, I probably have enough to fill a zoo - is listening to TV presenters and pundits saying that the price of a horse is off-putting.

Not the fact that the odds are too short - and, let's be honest, a fair percentage of commentators on the sport do go down the obvious, favourite route - but it is too big.

Just let that sink in for a minute. And breathe. 

Many people think that the Betfair market at the off tells all and that drifters can't win. But it doesn't, and they do. 

The Betfair market simply reflects supply and demand in a near 100% book, so if one or two at the top of the betting are being hammered, everything else must drift, whether they are fancied or not. It is a simple matter of percentages.

A recent example of this was when Hint Or Mint won at Leicester on Tuesday. He was put in at 7/2 by the Racing Post, which I thought was a pretty accurate assessment of his chances.

But Milo Man (11/10), Uhlan Bute (15/8) and Ashes House (4/1) were all well supported in the race, which meant that Hint Of Mint's price was going one way. 

In the end, the horse's Betfair betting graph looked like it had just taken a Viagra, but he won by six lengths at a scarcely believable Betfair SP of 19.693/5.

In short, never let a market drift put you off backing a horse. 

15:25 Warwick - Emperor's Choice

So, I am going to look pretty bloody stupid now by citing one of the reasons to give Emperor's Choice another chance at Warwick is market weakness last time out.

I thought he had a decent chance in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock, and so did plenty of others, as he was trading as short as 5/1 favourite in the morning. 

But you simply could not give him away come race-time, and he more doubled in price, returning at a BSP of 14.013/1. And he duly ran a stinker, never travelling from an early stage, and jumping badly.

I can't explain that run at all, but he was withdrawn at Cheltenham previously - I had assumed because the ground was too fast - and maybe he had a setback after a fair reappearance at Fontwell.

He could well blow out totally again but I have to give him one more chance, as the handicapper has dropped him a further 4lb for that run, and he is now a very well-weighted horse and one we know that is suited to a long distance slog in testing ground.

He is now only 2lb higher than when beating subsequent Midlands Grand National winner Big Occasion by a length over 3m4f in heavy ground at Lingfield last February - it was 14 lengths back to the third Monsieur Cadou, who won a handicap by eight lengths at Haydock on his next start - and I have to forgive him that woeful effort last time at these prices.

Venetia Williams, who has her string in great form, is sure to have done a lot of work with him at home since that Haydock horror show and Emperor's Choice is worth a small-stakes investment. Back him at 14.013/1 or bigger.

Warwick 13:55 - Nozic 

Elsewhere on the Warwick card I think Ballyculla has a fair shout in the 14:25, and likely outsider Splash Of Ginge would get a tentative vote in the Grade 2 novice hurdle at 15:00, but for my other bet at the meeting I am going to side with Nozic in the 13:55.
 
He is getting on a bit at 13-years-old and is out of form. But he maybe ran better than his final placing would suggest over 2m4f at Lingfield last time - he was never going to get home helping to force such a strong gallop over a distance in excess of his optimum - and is definitely worth a chance dropped back down to 2m off a handicap mark in free-fall.

He is now 9lb lower than when winning by 13 lengths at Kempton last February, loves heavy ground, and has decent course and distance form in testing conditions, too.

The downside is that his stable are in appalling form - 0 from 54 runners this jumps season - but their last two runners on the all-weather haven't run too badly, and that is factored into the price.

He will be the outsider of the field, but back him at 26.025/1 or bigger.

Over at Kempton, the Tolworth Hurdle looks a very tricky race to call and a no-bet race for me - Royal Boy would be my token selection - and the same comments apply to the six-runner listed chase at 14:10, and the handicap chase at 15:15.

Kempton 14:40 - Kaylis Aramis

But I will have a win and place betting interest in the Lanzarote at 14:40, in the shape of Kaylis Aramis. Back him at odds of 12.011/1 or bigger.

First things first, I wouldn't put anyone off having a saver on Saphir Du Rheu at around the 5/1 mark - or simply ignoring me and backing just him!

Saphir Du Rheu was tremendously impressive at Sandown last time, and I know some decent judges have been nibbling away at him for the World Hurdle at three-figure prices just in case he sluices up here and is considered for that race, along with about three other Andy Stewart-owned horses!

But I am happy to take a chance with Kaylif Aramis. He found things happening far too quickly for him over 2m in the Ladbroke last time, but ran OK, and he has a fair bit going for him stepped back to this trip, and with conditions to suit.

He showed his liking for soft ground when dotting up by six lengths at Uttoxeter back in March, having earlier finished a good third over course and distance on good ground.

It may well be that a fast-improver like Saphir Du Rheu has his measure, but Ryan Hatch hasn't done badly for the stable this season - he has been used to good effect on the stable's recent winning handicappers He's The Daddy and Mini Muck  - and his 7lb claim could prove useful. A first-time tongue tie for the horse is interesting, too.

Recommended Bets
Back Nozic in the 13:55 at Warwick at 26.025/1 or better
Back Kaylis Aramis in the 14:40 at Kempton at 12.011/1 or better
Back Emperor's Choice in the 15:25 at Warwick at 14.013/1 or better