Arc Day Racing Tips: Look to O'Brien's super filly to find the winner

Let's not beat around the bush when it comes to the Arc betting. It is a mature market, and there isn't a great deal of value knocking about in the prices.

It also doesn't help when the 3.185/40 favourite Postponed is the price he should be. He is the best horse in the race to judge from his Coronation Cup and Juddmonte victories, and his odds are more than justified.

I couldn't put you off him, but you don't need me, or anyone else, to tip you 2-1 pokes in a 16-runner Group 1 where there are likely to be plenty of hard-luck stories in the run.

If you asked me for a tip on Thursday, I would have probably told you New Bay each-way at 14-1 but he is now into 12.523/2 at the time of writing and the more I look at the videos of his races the more I think that last year's French Derby winner could struggle to last home if this is a strongly-run race.

I know that seems a touch odd to say about a horse that won last year's Niel in testing conditions who went on to finish third in this race, but they dawdled last year and I just think he will be vulnerable to stronger stayers in the final furlong.

But if they don't go much of a pace again, then he certainly comes here bang in form after his fourth at Leopardstown over 1m2f and he is undoubtedly a player at a double-figure price.

It could be that this year's Niel winner Makahiki is another in with a big shout, but I can't have him at odds of just 7.413/2.

Yes, he is the sexy unknown of the race, and lightly-raced to boot, but the bare form of the Niel leaves this Japanese Derby winner with a lot to find from my reading of his win in the trial, for all connections reported he was only "70-80" per cent fit there.

Dual Derby winner Harzand, said to have been struck into in the Irish Champion Stakes last time, has to be respected back over 1m4f. And if he can survive a day-of-race setback to win at Epsom, then I think he will be able to cope with a slight setback three weeks ago.

But the horse I am going to suggest to small stakes is Found win and place at 8.88/1 and 2.747/4 respectively, largely on the basis that I think that she is more of an odds-on poke to finish in the first three if she gets a trouble-free run from stall 12.

She certainly didn't get that when ninth in this race last year, when having to coast home after getting no run, but other than that she is just an incredibly tough and hardy, and top-class, filly who looks guaranteed to run her race. And we know that if she does then she has the form to go close here. The official ratings tell us that.

She probably won't be able to live with a peak-form Postponed, who laughed her at Epsom in June, but she probably ran a career-best when second to Almanzor in the Irish Champion last time, which gives some credence to the story that Aidan O'Brien has been aiming her at this race all season.

That seems some claim given that she started her season on April 3rd and this is her eighth start of the campaign.

But apparently that is 100% correct and I am not going to argue with Aidan O'Brien if he says that this has been the number one plan since the spring. If it has, she will be in the form of her life here.

And we do know that this is her time of year.

She beat Ervedya by 2 ½ lengths in the Boussac on this card in 2014, and beat a certain Golden Horn by ½ length over this trip in the Breeders' Cup Turf last season.

She has been the nearly horse on her last five starts, finishing second in those Group 1s, but stable confidence is high that she can at least continue that sequence, or maybe improve on it if Postponed isn't on his A-game.

If you are looking for an outsider than Talismanic at 50.049/1 is probably the most interesting contender. Fourth in the French Derby here, he has been given the typical French Arc prep, with a summer break and a low-key Listed win last time.

He is less exposed than most, and is trained by Fabre, and there are worse 50s pokes. But he has to improve a stone and more to beat the likes of the favourite and Found, so perhaps not a betting proposition, after all.


Recommended Bets

Back Found at 8.88/1 Win and 2.747/4 Place in Arc