Epsom Oaks Day Tips: Gratzie will give you reasons to be thankful

Regular readers of my ante-post columns on here will know that I have nailed my colours to the twin masts of Jack Naylor (12/1 each way), and a far more speculative punt on Qualify at 110.0109/1, in the Investec Oaks at 16:30 and I won't be going in again.

I am obviously more than happy with the Jack Naylor position, as she ran an eye-catching race when coming from the rear to finish fourth in the Irish 1,000 Guineas and is bred to improve at this trip.

It is little wonder that she has been the ante-post mover since - how three firms could still quote her at 25/1 after that Curragh run was puzzling to say the least - and I'll be disappointed if she isn't at least placed. The key form in this race could be her performance in giving 5lb and a beating to Legatissimo and Together Forever over 1m at The Curragh last season.

Similar comments apply - as regards the trip suiting, not the confidence in her placing - to Qualify at massive odds after her midfield run at the Curragh, though clearly this highly-rated juvenile needs to step up considerably on her two Classic runs this season. She was well worth a poke at the three-figure odds on Tuesday, though, even if she is drawn in two (more of that later), and her current odds remain too big.

There are two contrasting horses at the top of the market; 1,000 Guineas winner Legatissimo is the form horse and likely to be at least equally as effective over this longer trip, while Crystal Zvezda was visually very impressive when winning a lesser race, in a modest time admittedly, at Newbury.

Despite her draw in stall one (read on for possible significance of that), the David Wachman filly is by far the more solid of the pair, but there was a glint in Sir Michael Stoute's eyes - and real confidence, however understated, in his tone - when talking about his filly in a recent interview on RUK. But her price has long gone.

You can make a case for at least half a dozen of these - and the favourite is the likeliest winner - but I am happy with my two against the field.

I will give you these draw stats though, courtesy of ATR's Hugh Taylor. Over the Derby course and distance since 2000, stall one is 0 from 91, and stall two is 2 from 93. Make of that what you will...

***

I'll go through the rest of the Epsom card in chronological order, and I think Odeliz is the worthy favourite in the opener at 14:00.

It is interesting to note three fillies and mares have scored back-to-back successes in this race in the last 10 years and, with no 2013 and 2014 winner Thistle Bird to contend with in this renewal, I think Odeliz is a decent price at 4.3100/30. I don't normally play at this end of the market but I thought she'd be a 2/1 poke in a field lacking any depth, so I am backing her.

She ran an excellent race when a length second to Thistle Bird in this race last year - going on to record similarly good efforts, notably when chasing home Just The Judge in the EP Taylor Stakes - and she put a poor heavy ground run behind her when a good fourth in the Middleton Stakes at York last time. She doesn't lack pace and I think the step down in trip is a big positive.

***

The handicapper has been ridiculously kind to Sennockian Star in the 14:35 and odds of around 8.07/1 are bet-inducing. Not as generous as the early 9/1 one bookmaker fleetingly went on Wednesday afternoon, but tempting all the same.

The horse arrested a string of dire performances when winning off 95 over 1m2f at Chelmsford last month, and was backed to do so. But whereas the handicapper has upped his all-weather mark 4lb to 99, he has left him on his turf mark of 94, which puzzles me.

To put that into some kind of context, he was rated 106 after winning a valuable handicap at Glorious Goodwood last summer and he is still 2lb lower than when earlier winning the City And Suburban over course and distance last April.

The horse is clearly hit-and-miss, but he has been given every chance to follow up here. I expect him to sit behind stablemate and likely leader Master Of Finance, and attempt to put this race to bed at the 2f marker.

***

The Diomed Stakes at 15:10 is too tricky for me to call at the prices - you can only rule out Marcret - but Abseil and Gratzie interested me most in the Investec Mile handicap at 15:45.

Predictably last year's winner Abseil has been well found in the market after his third in a good handicap at York first time up - the form is beginning to work out well, which is why the early 5s on Wednesday soon disappeared - so I will switch to Gratzie.

She won twice over course and distance last April and, even though this is a big step up in class after finishing fourth in a 0-85 at Thirsk on her reappearance, I think she is weighted to go close.

Settled in rear in last, I momentarily thought that she was coming to win the race at Thirsk before her run petered out. And, given her proven course form and this being a decent pot, I think it is fair to assume connections would have been targeting this race for a while and left something to work on.

The form of that race is mixed, but at least the third home, No Poppy, bolted up at Haydock on Saturday. Gratzie is a decent price at 11.010/1 or better.

***

I won't be playing in the 17:15 but Mister Universe would be my nominal pick. And the same is true of the 17:50, where I would marginally favour Al Bandar without putting my hand in my pocket.

Good luck.


Recommended Bets (All Epsom)

Back Odeliz @ 4.3100/30 in the 14:00
Back Sennockian Star @ 8.07/1 in the 14:35
Back Gratzie @ 11.010/1 in the 15:45


Already advised in Oaks

Back Jack Naylor 12/1 each-way (Sportsbook)
Back Qualify at 110.0109/1