Epsom Derby Day Tips: Back Storm The Stars to shine in the big one

I hate stating the bleedin' obvious, but the simple truth is that the more I look at the Derby at 16:30, the more I think that Golden Horn will probably win.

I appreciate that Epsom's 1m4f is a far greater stamina test than many appreciate, and on pedigree he is not sure to last home.

But I certainly didn't come away from his highly impressive Dante win, in a good time, thinking this horse is a doubtful stayer.

Sure, his turn of foot looked a potent weapon there, and he clearly doesn't lack gears.

But, if anything, I thought the further he went the better he looked, even allowing for the fact that a flat-track 1m2f88yd at York is a world away from 1m4f at an undulating Epsom and people do tend to be blasé about horses staying an extra quarter of a mile or so (next time you are on a racecourse, go and stand at the 2f pole and gaze towards the finish in the distance).

No, everything about the horse tells me he is by far the most likely winner, and I can't see those behind him at York overturning the form, so I am not going to put you off backing him.

Odds of 2.89/5 look perfectly fair for the stand-out form horse in the race.

But I rarely play at those kind of prices in races - Muthmir at 3.3512/5 last Sunday was a rare example, and I got away with it by a nose - and the three horses I have nibbled at ante-post have been Giovanni Canaletto at 18.535/2 on Monday after being left in the race, Hans Holbein at 23.022/1 immediately after Chester and a whopping £8 on Storm The Stars at an average 117.75467/4.

The first-named will run well but he has hit his true price now - it is interesting, and not unexpected, to see him in cheek pieces, which his brother Ruler Of The World wore when winning this race two years ago - though I still think there is some win and place mileage in Storm The Stars at 24.023/1 and 5.59/2 respectively.

He has 12lb to find with the favourite on official ratings - and that probably flatters him a bit, too, even if he was only beaten a head by Golden Horn in a Nottingham maiden last season (largely irrelevant) - but this race is sure to be strongly-run and that will suit him down to the ground.

I was at the Craven meeting in April and if you had told me that I would be tipping him for the Derby at 25/1 after he finished fifth in a maiden then I would have said you were mad.

But he has improved massively since then, not getting the run of the race against Hans Holbein in the Chester Vase and then knuckling down well, after still looking green and inexperienced, to win the Cocked Hat at Goodwood last time. He was well on top and going away again at the line.

He needs to step up massively again but he is learning and improving and from a stable in red-hot form now - well, aside from Queen Of Ice who I lumped on last Saturday at Haydock, only to see her trail home last - then I think that if there is to be a shock then it could well be him.

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At the start of the card, Resonant has to be feared, even if up 9lb after his Goodwood win, as the step back up in trip will be in his favour. As does Shaakis, whose Sandown second has been franked since, and Stravagante, who was backed to beat Jack Hobbs at the Esher track last time.

But the one I like at a bigger price, win and place, is Cosmic Ray in the 1m2f handicap at 14:00. Back him at 16.015/1 and 4.57/2 respectively.

He has done remarkably well to finish so close on his first two starts over 1m this season given that he has run far too freely, and it is no surprise that Andrew Balding has reached for a first-time hood to try and settle him.

If he does prove more tractable then he has definite chances off his mark, especially as the step up in trip will suit if he takes after his sire, the stable's globetrotting St Leger third and Sheema Classic winner Phoenix Reach. I do fear Resonant though, and he rates a massive threat.

***

Miss Moneypenny won in a good time at Windsor last time and I wouldn't underestimate her in the Woodcote at 14:35, but this two-year-olds' race is clearly something of a guessing game and I'll be sitting this one out from a betting point of view.

And the same is true in the virtual match-up in the Coronation Cup at 15:10, though I would marginally side with Flintshire to get his revenge on Dolniya on a track which he is proven on, having chased home Cirrus Des Aigles in this race last season.

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To say that you will need luck in running in the 20-runner Dash at 15:45, is something of an understatement and that is why plenty of punters will look to keep it simple and back a pace-setter drawn high that will get out in front and freewheel clear of trouble.

The problem with this betting strategy is that the price factors that in, and some, with horses with this profile. But you can come from behind here - you will not see a better ride than Ryan Moore guiding home Duke Of Firenze in this race two years ago - and you can win when drawn low if you get the breaks.

So I am going to be contrary - surprise, surprise - and side with Desert Law at odds of 20.019/1 from stall one.

He would be one of the market leaders coming here straight from his York third two starts ago, as the form of that race has worked out so well. The winner came second in a listed race at Haydock last Saturday, and the second and fourth and fifth fought filled the first three places at York at the weekend, too.

But connections of Desert Law brought him out at Redcar just four days after York, and he couldn't reproduce the form after being turned out again quicker than he has ever been before. He had always been given at least a fortnight between races in the past.

Now, given the best part of three weeks to freshen up, he comes here a seriously well-handicapped form on his past exploits and, if Martin Lane bides his time and rides the rollercoaster, then he could just click here. And he was only beaten ½ length by Stone Of Foica (won from stall 2) when second in this race three years ago.

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I was going to side with Highland Castle in the 17:15, until I saw what a chance the handicapper has given likely outsider Mirsaale, who is worth a few quid at 50.049/1 or bigger.

This course winner wasn't disgraced in the Derby on this day two years ago, but his form has tailed off since running Gatewood to 3/4 length at Goodwood last May.

But the handicapper has dropped him 6lb since his last run and, making his debut for a small stable and with first-time blinkers on, I'm happy to give him a chance at the odds.

His trainer's lack of form this season is an obvious worry but Tiger Cub won its debut for the yard back in 2012, in a first-time visor no less after having been tailed off on her previous start, and sent out 80/1 Joe Sugden to win first time up at Newmarket in 2013. So they can ready one, albeit infrequently...

Nothing appeals in the 17:50, but good luck in whatever you back and punt on a great day of racing.


Recommended Bets (all Epsom)

Back Cosmic Ray at 16.015/1 and 4.57/2 for a place in the 14:00
Back Desert Law at 20.019/1 in the 15:45
Back Storm The Stars at 24.023/1 and 5.59/2 for a place in the Derby at 16:30
Back Mirsaale at 50.049/1 or bigger in the 17:15