Cheltenham Day One Tips: Keltus the bet of the day - but get in quick

Given that he is on four short-priced favourites, the PR strapline for the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival has become "Ruby Tuesday".

It is a pretty cute line, and how you view the opportunity it presents probably defines what kind of punter you are.

There will be plenty who will be perming Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Faugheen and Annie Power in multiples, and fair play to them. All have outstanding chances, you can't deny that.

But what I have an issue with is TV pundits and tipsters advocating that course of action, too, seemingly without factoring in their odds.

There have been a couple of cringeworthy moments on our specialist racing channels recently, including one - immediately after saying that Willie Mullins' horses offer no value at Cheltenham - recommending the opening day yankee as his best bet of the meeting. And another even suggested that price has, or should have, little or no influence on how a punter approaches betting at the Festival.

Anyway, I better crack on as I've been told to keep the word count in check, so I'll attack the races in chronological order.

However, just a quick, general word before I do. Keep an eye out for special offers. For example, on the Betfair Sportsbook on day one of the Festival, if your selection wins at 3/1 or more they give you three free bets to the same value as your stake for every winner.

Cheltenham 13:30 - Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Alvisio Ville

It's a brilliant concession, but this column is Exchange-based, and the horse that most interests me at the current prices in the Supreme is Alvisio Ville at odds of 20.019/1. It will be my smallest bet of the day, though.

My idea of the likeliest winner is L'Ami Serge and I have backed him each way at odds ranging from 11/2 and 4/1 ante-post, and I couldn't put you off backing him win only at 5.04/1.

The only thing wrong with Douvan is the price in such a deep race - and it wouldn't be the greatest surprise in the world were one firm go out to get him tomorrow morning. Indeed, the fact that all four of Mullins' biggest owners have runners in this race underlines that, and Alvisio Ville is reportedly not far off brilliant homeworker Douvan on the gallops.

They were apparently mortified when he was beaten over 2m2f in the Deloitte last time. But I think this strong traveller will be seen to better effect ridden more patiently in a faster-run race over a shorter trip on better ground, and I am happy to take my chances at the price, not doubt inflated by the fact that AP rides JP's other runner Jollyalan is said to have been to Yogi Breisner for a bit of "jump therapy" since his last run.

Cheltenham 14:05 - Arkle Chase - Three Kingdoms

I'll cut straight to the chase in the Arkle where I expect Un De Sceaux to win bar a fall, and odds of around 1.84/5 on Betfair are very fair if you like playing at that end of the market.

But I can happily sit back and let these shorties win unbacked - similar comments apply to Annie Power in the Mares Hurdle at 16:00 - and my interest in the race revolves around Three Kingdoms.

If you like Vibrato Valtat at 7.613/2, then you have to love this horse at odds of 28.027/1 as the Paul Nicholls horse only beat him by half a length off levels at Kempton over Christmas.

And he could be better than he looked at Doncaster last time - not that a defeat of the then-rated 145 Solar Impulse is too shoddy - as apparently he had a schooling fall at home prior to the race and his trainer thinks that win will have done his confidence the world of good.

I will back him at 28.027/1 but my main interest in the race is Three Kingdoms in the without favourite market, at 11.010/1 or bigger.

Cheltenham 14:40 - Handicap Chase - Theatre Guide

I can't resist having a few quid on Theatre Guide at odds of 20.019/1 in the 14:40.

Gallant Oscar and recent plunge horse Pendra, who has had a wind operation since his last run, are respected - I very nearly put up the former as a saver at odds of 15.014/1 and I can see that price being nibbled at - but Theatre Guide shouldn't be a 20/1 chance.

He hasn't had any chance at the weights against top class horses on his last two runs since dead-heating at Kempton in November but the handicapper has kindly dropped him 2lb anyway.

That is the same mark as when second to Monbeg Dude over course and distance last season, and just 2lb higher than when an excellent third in the Hennessy before that.

He missed the Hennessy this season after going "a little wrong behind" and I suspect that his trainer has targeted this handicap ever since, taking in those hot contests at Cheltenham and Ascot to peak him for this.

Cheltenham 15:15 - Champion Hurdle - Arctic Fire (w/o favourite)

I expect Faugheen to go off at odds-on and win the Champion Hurdle but I won't be backing him to do so. I can't put you off - and the same applies to each-way backers of Jezki - but it is just not my sort of bet.

I am going to back Arctic Fire in the without favourite market, at 10.09/1 or bigger.

To be charitable, I think he has been campaigned rather respectfully behind Hurricane Fly in his last two runs and there has been a twinkle in Mullins' eyes when he has spoken about this one's chances.

Just touched off in the County Hurdle here last year, he split the Fly and Jezki last time and it is clear that he is a fast-improving horse and one who has possibly gone under the radar. There won't be any due deference paid to any of his rivals today, and I am anticipating Danny Mullins to ride this smooth traveller close to the pace here and outrun his odds.

I am not getting involved in the Mares Hurdle at 16:00 - and I wouldn't be in a mad rush to back Annie Power at 1.684/6 - and nothing much shouts at me in the four-miler at 16:40.

Cheltenham 17:15 - Novices' Handicap Chase - Thomas Crapper and Keltus

But I am going to take two against the field in the last with Thomas Crapper at odds of 8.88/1 and Keltus at 12.011/1.

It is not my normal MO to play at the top end of the market in handicaps but these two have outstanding claims, and I reckon Paul Nicholls' runner could be the handicap steamer of the day.

Nicholls has not fought shy of telling anyone that he thinks Keltus is his best handicap chance of the week - I think he first told Betfair customers in a 'five to follow' video on this site two weeks ago - and the horse's odds have shortened accordingly.

But now that the horse has just scraped in at the bottom of the weights today, there could still be some juice in the price.

He looks well-handicapped on his last run, goes well when fresh, looks sure to be suited by the step up in trip, has Cheltenham Festival handicap form and will love the ground. All boxes ticked, as they say. Expect the money to arrive.

You'd certainly want a pound for ever cry of "Up The Crapper!" up and down the country should Thomas Crapper win this race - and a further one for everyone who thinks it is an original line - and there is every chance that he will.

The handicapper literally couldn't have been any kinder to this horse, letting him race off the same mark as when he finished second to current RSA favourite Don Poli in the Martin Pipe, despite a series of good effort against 150+ rated chasers over fences this season.

Like Keltus, he looks to hold incredibly strong claims from the bottom of the weights, and I'll be disappointed if one of the pair don't win. In fact, I will be sticking them in a forecast.

Well, it is the opening day and optimism abounds!

To read my Cheltenham Day 1 Tips for 2016 then please click on the previous hyper-link.

Recommended Bets
Back Alvisio Ville at 20.019/1 in the Supreme at 13:30
Back Three Kingdoms at 28.027/1 in the Arkle at 14:05
Back Three Kingdoms at 11.010/1 or bigger in the W/O favourite market in the Arkle at 14:05
Back Theatre Guide 21.020/1 in the 14:40
Back Arctic Fire at 10.09/1 or bigger in the W/O Faugheen market at 15:20
Back Thomas Crapper at 8.88/1 and Keltus at 12.011/1 in the 17:15