Saturday Racing Tips: Back the real Somersby to appear at Sandown

This column is probably going to be a lot shorter than usual because I originally penned a very witty five-paragraph intro about how the real Somersby was going to stand up to be counted in the Tingle Creek on Saturday - only then to realise that the 1990s film starring Richard Gere as the leading character-cum-impostor of that name was spelt with two Ms.
 
So bang went the witty opening (though Google the plot as you will need to know it to get the sign-off line at the end of this piece).
 
But, without further ado, back Somersby at odds of 10.09/1 or better in the main event Sandown today at 15:00.
 
I don't think you can argue with the Haldon Gold Cup front two, God's Own and Balder Succes, dominating the market - they are the form horses in here - but you can make a fair case for Somersby being too big at the current odds.
 
He actually won that Exeter race off a mark of 155 last year and then twice finished second to Sire De Grugy in Grade 1s, firstly in this race and then when runner-up in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham. 
 
He dropped away very tamely behind the front two in the market at Exeter first time up, but was much more like himself in first time cheekpieces at Ascot last time when second to the visually very impressive Al Ferof.
 
There is a suspicion that race wasn't as good as it looked at the time, but it was still a high-class effort whatever way you cut it - the third horse Wishfull Thinking had previously dumped on some useful rivals at Aintree - and Somersby's Sandown form figures read 122.
 
Admittedly, he needs to brush up his jumping but I think the old-stager can put some younger rivals in their place if that part of his game holds up under AP, who won the Henry VIII on him on this card five years ago.
 
I can't see much of an edge in the Henry VIII at 13:50 or the handicap hurdle at 14:25 but the fragile Kasbadali is worth a small-stakes interest bet at 5.04/1 or bigger in the 15:35.
 
As with most horses with leg issues, his trainer tends to produce him ready to go first time up, as he did when winning at Towcester last season, and given his good course form it is a fair bet than Oliver Sherwood has aimed the horse at this prize since in came back in from his summer break.
 
I think he ideally would prefer better ground but he has form in the soft, is off a fair mark, has course form figures of 322 and this marathon trip is expected to suit.
 
Over at Aintree, I favour Mountain King v the field in 14:05, and Rebel Rebellion and Dolatulo against the field in the Grand Sefton at 15:15, and I wouldn't put anyone off backing those. But I'll swerve those for tipping purposes.
 
The Becher Chase at 13:30, really is going to be a mini Grand National, as with 25 runners racing over 3m2f, it is its biggest-ever field in its 22-year existence. And an amazing 42,000 Aintree crowd is expected courtesy of an excellent free-entry initiative. 
 
And I really like the look of Mr Moonshine at odds of 26.025/1 or better.
 
Sue Smith's horses have struck form with a vengeance after a poor start to the season - as of Friday morning her recent form figures read 17136621311334 - and I think her 10yo can be competitive off a mark of 146.
 
He finished an excellent third in this race last season and shaped pretty well when fifth in the Old Roan last time considering 2m4f on good ground wouldn't have played to his strengths. 
 
Back over these fences over a trip with cut in the ground, and with his stable flying, Mr Moonshine looks a big price at 20-1+.
 
I was tossing up for ages between Knock A Hand and Our Father as my saver in the race, but the vote goes to David Pipe's grey.

He is a fragile horse so Pipe tends to get him fit and firing for his reappearance, and it is worth remembering that he was sent off 11-2 favourite off an 11lb higher mark than this in last season's Hennessy, and he didn't run too badly to finish seventh.
 
Denis O'Regan came out of the side door after he had jumped the Canal Turn perfectly well in the National last year, and the handicapper has given him a huge chance off a mark of 136.
 
He may have gone but at 16.015/1 I am willing to find out if he returns to his best.
 
If he does, then he really could be a different gear to these...sorry, I had to get that discarded line from the intro in somewhere. 

It was just too good to ignore; well, hopefully, anyway. 
 
Recommended Bets
 
Back Somersby at 10.09/1 in the 15:00 at Sandown
Back Kasbadali at 5.04/1 or bigger in the 15:35 at Sandown
Back Mr Moonshine at 26.025/1 in the 13:30 at Aintree
Back Our Father at 16.015/1 in the 13:30 at Aintree