Antepost Racing Tips: Two big odds plays for Betfair card at Ascot and a 12/1 Haydock National Trial

• Grand National Trial pick leads the way as antepost tip

• Two fancies for Ascot at 12/113.00 and 6/17.00

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Ascot - 14:25 Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle: Back Kalium EW @ 12/113.00

Ascot's Betfair-sponsored card this Saturday includes the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase, plus the Injured Jockeys Fund Ambassadors Programme Reynoldstown Novices' Chase.

Unfortunately, we again need something of the Churchillian spirit in the face of the wet weather with the hurdles track at Ascot as of Tuesday reading a lowly 3.9.

Three races appeal from an antepost view, in particular the 14:25 with the potential for a big field, ergo an each-way bet.

We're possibly stymied again by multiple entries as Kalium, a 12/113.00 shot for the 14:25, also holds entries in the 3m race later on the Saturday card, plus the added bonus of an entry at Haydock in the Pertemps Qualifier.

His win last spring (March) at Newbury on decent going was a thoroughly game performance over 2m3f as he moved with menace into the straight. A blunder, and a near-costly one, two out could have scuppered his chance but he rallied under the "convincer" with Alan Johns and stayed on well.

While he holds entries over 3m, this 2m3f is for now his best distance and he should come on for his only run this term at Doncaster 77 days ago. Another error hindered him, but it did look like a run that was needed.

He has form (and wins) on good ground but he has shown soft isn't a problem, his win at Fontwell as a novice, when he made the running, a case in point.

We have 12/113.00 and four places on the Betfair Sportsbook here too.

Ascot - 15:00 Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase: Back Montregard @ 6/17.00

Poor old Sam Brown. A 14-year-old lumbered with a mark of 154 and the gallant of racing will have to concede weight to a few young upstarts here.

But come on assessors, get away from that self-satisfied word mush and give Sam Brown a break. Age has muzzled his speed, but his mark is far from muzzled.

Henry's Friend interested me initially at 12s as he landed the Sodexo Gold Cup here in November, but he'll need better going as it was good with that career best.

King's Threshold is another who might prefer going away from soft.

A shorter price at 6/17.00 is Montregard, a previous CD winner for Tom Lacey and off the back of a very good runner-up spot at Ascot last time, again over 3m.

He was beaten by Ben Pauling's The Jukebox Kid and looked very much a chaser for staying races. Pushed along on the inside, he kept going back for more against the winner and winged the last fence, but it still wasn't quite enough. A small rise from 122 to 125 still keeps him well handicapped.

With a lightly-raced profile to boot and track winning form, he's a big runner here for me, and the trainer has a 20% strike-rate this term with his chasers.

Haydock - 15:15 Grand National Trial: Back Grand Geste EW @ 12/113.00

Nobody has a time honoured right to win at any track, but Grand Geste's run at Doncaster last time was one of my biggest disappointments of the jumps season.

I really rated his chances for the Great Yorkshire Chase and everything looked good beforehand with the market very much in his favour into 5/23.50. Then he ran no sort of race and was pulled up.

Before Doncaster, and that flop, assistant to Sue Smith, Joel Parkinson said: "We'll probably look to stick to three miles but we're thinking about the novice handicap [National Hunt Chase] over three miles six furlongs at the festival," said Parkinson. "It's a big handicap chase on Saturday and we'll get that out of the way first and reassess.

"He looks like a proper staying sort who will get the Grand National trip in time. We wouldn't ask him to do that this year as it's probably too early in his career, but he's got some nice targets."

I've seen no quotes regarding the failure. Whether it was him not being able to lead early or the Doncaster going, it remains a mystery. It was given as soft and on times there was no reason to doubt the going, but Donny can throw up strange results and he is too good a horse, or certainly one with too much potential, to cancel.

His win at Haydock in the Tommy Whittle was great. His jumping was more cavalier than roundhead that day as he was breathtaking at some of the fences. That ability to put pressure on rivals from the front in soft going will help.

He's essentially been written off completely following one bad run. That's a mistake, in my view. 

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