Paddy Power Gold Cup Preview: Pipe to call the tune

The regular diet of high-level handicap chases over around two and a half miles at Cheltenham act as a sort of rhythm section to the National Hunt season, counting us in with the headline race at the Showcase meeting in October and running all the way through the Silver Trophy in mid-April. Also in tune with many good rhythm sections, its importance is often overlooked.

Between them, races like the Paddy Power and December Gold Cup (those two being the main contributors) have announced the arrival of as many would-be top chasers as any novice event at the Festival. Our Vic, Monkerhostin, Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander are just some of the top-class chasers of the last decade to have landed their first big success over fences in one of these races and many fancy Al Ferof, last year's Paddy Power winner, to follow their lead.

Whatever the outcome in the Paddy Power this year, current favourite Dynaste will already have designs on winning at a higher level. That's partly because he already has as a novice: twice at Grade 2 level, and in the Grade 1 Feltham last Christmas. The only blip of any description across his novice campaign was at the Festival, when Benefficient took his measure in the Jewson. He had won here earlier in the season, at this corresponding meeting in fact, so the course isn't going to be a problem.

Dynaste's handicap mark could be more of an issue. Off 159, a winning performance would have to be in the realm of what it would normally take to win a fully-fledged Grade 1: compare with Long Run, who finished third in the Paddy Power back in 2010 off a lower mark before winning the King George on his next start. Dynaste may have such a performance in him, but at 8.07/1 there's little value in backing him to prove it.

Even if you fancy Dynaste, it's unlikely his price will contract significantly between now and the race. Conversely, one positive report from David Pipe (however unlikely that might be) would probably see the price of stablemate Salut Flo collapse. Salut Flo has already proved his worth in one of these handicaps, winning the Cheltenham Festival iteration when last seen on a racecourse in 2012. His 19-month absence since means he has to prove himself all over again, but he'd have been very prominent in the betting for this race last year off his current mark (144) and, by extension, he's very interesting  now if he can be brought back none the worse. 

There are a couple of other quasi-C&D winners that deserve a mention at this stage. Champion Court has gone up just 2 lb for coming clear with Menorah in the Silver Trophy. That reflects a quite reasonable suspicion about the worth of that race's form, but Champion Court's clear second to William's Wishes (then off 135) from the same mark earlier in the season over an inadequate trip suggests that he'll be well up to competing off 157 under more suitable conditions. 

Katenko comes into much the same bracket as Salut Flo, in that he's attempting to prove himself for a second time. He won here on Festival Trials Day and was bound for an admittedly rather fanciful tilt at the Gold Cup before colic ended his season. His mark is now 157 following such a wide-margin success in January, so Katenko will have to justify the faith shown in him by connections straight away if he's to make it back-to-back wins here.

The Paddy Power can be a second chance not only for novices who just fell short against the best, but also those that wound up as unrealised handicappers. The Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase at the Festival is about as close to a trial for the Paddy Power as you'll find, the pattern set by the likes of L'Antartique, Barbers Shop and Hunt Ball featuring prominently in both races in the same year. 

Three of the runners from the most recent Centenary- winner Rajdhani Express, fifth-placed Colour Squadron and Johns Spirit (seventh)- are following that route this year. Both Rajdhani Express and Johns Spirit have raised their stock since, but their respective handicap marks have followed the trajectory and, although they come here with a fighting chance, get no further than the longlist in a handicap like this.

Colour Squadron could be different. His chasing career up to then had revolved around the Centenary and it will probably continue to centre on these races for the foreseeable future. He was a smart hurdler, finishing second to Captain Conan and Dedigout in Grade 1s, but wasn't really given the chance to show his worth over fences until the Festival. There he rather fluffed his lines, showing quirks he's exhibited before, but as mentioned above he still finished fifth. There is no doubt that Colour Squadron is well handicapped on hurdles form, while his build suggests he ought to do even better as a chaser.

After all that, we land in familiar territory where big handicaps are concerned: Pipe and McManus. McManus has never won the Paddy Power, but the Pipes certainly have, nine times in fact. Most have been unexposed, improving chasers, but Salut Flo would represent more of a work of skill and patience, traits often overlooked in the Pipe arsenal. It would be fitting were these more understated abilities, the rhythm section to the canny frontman David so often plays, to take a leading role in delivering Paddy Power Gold Cup number 10.

Recommendations:
Back Salut Flo @ 13.525/2 & Colour Squadron @ 18.535/2 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup

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