November Handicap: Nicholascopernicus the one to be on

The traditional Flat season finale, the November Handicap, is simply one of those races that can have you tearing your hair out as so many of the likely runners have profiles that make you think "yeah, reckon I'll stick a few quid on that". Two things are almost certain to happen once you've stuck a "few quid" on 22 of the 23 runners a) you'll have rid yourself of any potential profit and b) number 23 will win. Then you'll be even more skint. 

The weather tends to play a huge part in these back-end races so I usually give them fairly short shrift, though a quick glance at the long-range forecast for Doncaster suggests that rain is likely, as is customary for the November Handicap. Soft ground performers that stay well are the order of the day then, as they are every year.

We're probably best off whittling down the list of contenders rather than talking up the more likely types, at least to start with, kicking off with Thomas Hobson who has reportedly been sold at Goffs for £240,000 and will join Willie Mullins with a view to going over hurdles after a break. 

One that is shorter in the market than I anticipated is Roger Charlton's Border Legend, a four-year-old who has done the majority of his racing at a mile. He built on his promising return from a break with a win on his first crack at 10 furlongs at Nottingham last month, triumphing by only three-quarters of a length but doing so in stylish fashion, and he is proven with cut in the ground though I have my reservations as to whether he wants to go up another two furlongs in trip, particularly if it comes up heavy.

An interesting point to note with Border Legend is that he is a strong-traveller who has traded at 2.77/4 or less in the run on five occasions when beaten. He will almost certainly be hard on the steel entering the straight and could make a move through the pack, making him ideal back-to-lay material on the day, before a lack of stamina catches him out at the finish. 

A final one that I don't want to back is Lahaag, who got off the mark for the season when scoring at York last month. The four-year-old had gone like one ahead of his mark on a couple of occasions earlier in the season and proved that point on his return from a 10 week break at the Knavesmire, actually doing quite well to come through from the back in what was a messy, steadily run affair. However the emphasis on speed rather than stamina at 12 furlongs on a sound surface suited him that day and it is doubtful as to whether a slog in a bog will be ideal.

An interesting contender is Conduct, who highly-regarded when trained by Sir Michael Stoute earlier in his career and made the perfect start in September of 2010 when winning on debut at Sandown and then following up in some style in a Newbury nursery.

Conduct was not seen until August 2012, running really well after such an absence to finish second on a competitive handicap at this track, but he then went missing for another year, joining William Haggas in the meantime. His two runs in defeat this term have been promising, suggesting that he could be building up to an even bigger performance, and for all that there are slight question marks over his stamina for this trip and his ability to handle a softer surface, given his profile he is certainly not one to be writing off.

Luca Cumani, a trainer synonymous with bringing along horses gradually, looks set to be represented by Ajman Bridge who has all the hallmarks of being a steadily progressive handicapper. Surprisingly for one from this yard he made a winning debut last year when sent off an unfancied 20/1 shot, belying that price to score in impressive fashion at Kempton.

Ajman Bridge also tasted success on his seasonal return at Pontefract, progressing as expected for the step up to 10 furlongs, and he has run to a similar level on two outings in defeat since, being unsuited by a steady pace on each occasion. His pedigree doesn't scream stamina but the way he goes through his races suggests that he is well worth a go at this trip, and he could well pull out a bit more for it.

Another that could pull out a bit more is Open Eagle, who boasts useful form in France and made a winning start for David O'Meara at Catterick in September. His shrewd handler could well get him to take a step forward but that form hasn't worked out especially well and you are taking a bit of a guess with him, so I'd be more interested in the Ed Walker-trained Nicholascopernicus, who was flagged in the Timeform Notebook as being an ideal type for this race.

That entry in the Notebook came after Nicholascopernicus finished second to Lahaag at York, bouncing back to his best from two below-par efforts earlier in the season. He has since disappointed over this C&D which was surprising, particularly as the race was staged on ground that he handles so well, but the suspicion is that connections used that outing as a bit of a "sighter" for this bigger target, and he should be spot on now. 

With regards to an ante-post bet I'd suggest that the one to side with is Nicholascopernicus, who disappointed when fancied for this race last year but is well worth another chance on ground that will suit. I'd also be keen to seek a bit of insurance with the steadily progressive Ajman Bridge, who is currently trading at a similar price, but Nicholascopernicus should be spot on for this and will go close if at his very best.

Recommendation:
Back Nicholascopernicus in the November Handicap

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