December Gold Cup Preview: Lavelle charge can land big prize

If the Paddy Power was the feast, the December Gold Cup is the famine, which is a touch ironic given it's sponsored by Caspian Caviar this year.

That sort of talk refers only to the quality of the race. In those tems it can't be denied that this is a substandard renewal of a race that purports to be the main event (alongside the International Hurdle) in a two-day meeting at Cheltenham. There are no horses still entered at the five-day stage rated 150 or higher; the last time the race was run without a horse rated so highly was in 2000.

Betting doesn't allow for quality of the contest, of course. Value is value, whether you're studying a 0-95 or the Cheltenham Gold Cup. In that sense it could even be a favourable renewal of the December Gold Cup. The red-hot handicaps teeming with progressive sorts are exciting but can be treacherous betting territory, while in a renewal like this even relatively unfashionable sorts can start to make appeal- often at big prices, too.

That's part of the reason I'd put no one off backing Attaglance. Yes, he's tried and failed in races like this before, but never one quite so pedestrian. Therefore, off 143 and on the New Course (which with its longer straight should suit his strong-finishing style) Attaglance becomes an experienced campaigner on a surmountable mark rather than an exposed serial loser to be passed over.

There is better value to be had, though. It comes in the shape of one who has only subtly advertised his form around here, who has left a top yard for a good one and is on a mark from which he's competed from with credit before. The horse is Edgardo Sol and normally in these races he'd justifiably be a 22.021/1 chance. Here he could be half that.

Two starts for Emma Lavelle this season haven't shown Edgardo Sol at his best, though chiefly because they haven't been able to. In the Old Roan, he didn't jump all that well but still finished second to subsequent Peterborough Chase winner Wishfull Thinking. Then he ran in the Paddy Power, in which eighth doesn't do him credit. He travelled better than that and he was hardly the only horse at the Open meeting to suffer for being taken down the inside of the track (three of the first four home in that race travelled widest).

We know Edgardo Sol is well handicapped on his best form over fences and we know he acts around Cheltenham- besides the Paddy Power, he has umpteen good efforts over the hurdles course to his name including a second in the County Hurdle. There's not much more we could ask of him besides concrete proof that he retains all of his ability, but then again if we had that he wouldn't be 22.021/1.

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This December Gold Cup isn't devoid of younger, improving sorts and we should add in the case for them. Paddy Power winner Caid du Berlais is top of the list, even from a 5-lb higher mark than last time. He's only five, after all, with just four starts over fences behind him. He's also been placed over hurdles at the last two Festivals so clearly thrives around Cheltenham.

Caid du Berlais is simply a little too popular for his own good. Winning the Paddy Power is just about a free pass to December Gold Cup favouritism and the likes of Exotic Dancer and Senor El Betrutti show us why, though 5.04/1 leaves us little room for manoeuvre with Caid du Berlais. That's especially true when you consider the beneficial course he steered last time, as we discussed above.

At double the price we'd be even more positive about Barrakilla from the Evan Williams yard. He's always been well regarded, probably more so than the stable's Paddy Power hard-luck story Buywise, having been taken to Ascot for his debut, the EBF Final over hurdles and put in a valuable handicap at Sandown on this season's reappearance.

Barrakilla was gambled on at Sandown and shaped just about best in a race that contains a handful that could reoppose here including Sound Investment and No Buts. He gets in off the same mark and, for that reason, he is probably the most appealing of all in this race from a handicapping perspective.

I'd advise that you get Barrakilla onside. The reason he isn't the main selection is partly down to the dicey tactics employed on him, tactics that regular rider Paul Moloney can tend to get wrong in the big races (and I apologise to Buywise fans for opening those sores). Barrakilla is as likely to finish a never-nearer third on Saturday as he is to win.

Whether or not you choose to split stakes with Barrakilla, this December Gold Cup feels like the time to take a chance on one at a bigger price with the more archetypal sorts, like Barrakilla, never likely to be missed in a field that contains so few of them. Sleeper agents, like Attaglance and especially Edgardo Sol, could find this to be their day. There's certainly value to be had in taking the second of those established handicap chasers to take home another big prize.

Recommended bet:

Back Edgardo Sol @ 22.021/1 in the December Gold Cup