Champion Stakes: A predictable outcome for Farhh

The Mystic Meg Limited racing colours, synonymous with middle-distance handicappers trained by Mark Tompkins, have yet to be carried by a horse good enough to run in the Group 1 Champion Stakes, let alone win it. Now only the visionary herself could speculate as to whether that will be corrected in the near future (though I'm pretty certain Tompkins could have a more accurate guess having watched them all go up the gallops) but I wouldn't mind a bit of old Meg's predicting powers when it comes to deciphering just what's going to run in Ascot's feature, as most of the entries are also engaged in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. 

The common assumption is that mystics largely rely on the customer making their own predictions, working on percentages and asking leading questions before using a sport of guesswork and some imagination to provide a vague assessment of what may or may not happen in the future. I'm going to use a similar strategy to rule out several potential runners in the Champion Stakes so that we can then focus on the likely starters.
 
Toronado - Almost certain to be dropped back in trip to continue his battle with Dawn Approach in the QEII.

The Fugue - Owner Lady Lloyd-Webber's racing manager said "We'll look at the Champion Stakes and see what the weather does but there's every chance it will be straight to America." The Breeders' Cup is the right destination for her anyway.

Al Kazeem - Retired, gone to prepare for the life of luxury at stud. 

Declaration Of War - He could run in the QEII, having won the Queen Anne earlier in the season, but I reckon "the lads" will be tempted by a crack at the Breeders' Cup Classic given his pedigree.

Ruler of The World - Ran in the Arc, unlikely to run here and would be made to look slow if he did. 

Sky Lantern - The Hannons have said that her owner has ties in Hong Kong so wants to run there; would probably go for the QEII if running beforehand. 

That's six gone then. Only time will tell whether I have a future as a mystic or not but we must now deal with those that are likely to run, starting with Cirrus des Aigles who won this race in 2011 and finished a gallant second to Frankel 12 months ago. Having suffered an injury after that race Cirrus des Aigles was given a break and kicked off his 2013 campaign in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, where he was widely expected to be in need of the run.

Cirrus Des Aigles duly shaped as such and was sent off favourite for the King George, where he could only finish a disappointing fourth with the firm ground given as a possible excuse. Two defeats at Deauville, in races he would have won last year, gave mounting evidence to the theory that he would not return to his best, and a win in a poor Group 3 did little to dispel that theory. 

However, the Corine Barande-Barbe-trained seven-year-old looked much more like his old self when taking the Group 2 Prix Dollar on Arc weekend, his performance on the day still some way short of his best but the ease with which he went about it was impressive. It still seems unlikely that he will return to his previous top-class form but a replication of that effort, in a Champion Stakes which lacks a real standout contender, would see him go very close indeed. 

The fragile Farhh rapidly developed into a high-class performer last year, posting one of the best handicap performances in recent seasons when winning the Thirsk Hunt Cup in May before making the places in a quintet of Group 1's, twice finishing runner-up to Frankel. 

Farhh returned in the Lockinge Stakes and produced as good an effort in victory as any, apart from Frankel, in the 10 years since Hawk Wing's devastating display, and the manner in which he went about it strongly suggested that he was better than ever. Connections were keen to run Farhh in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes only for injury scupper that particular raid, but it is of little concern that he has been off the track since May given his proven record when fresh. 

Had Farhh been seen recently, and proven his wellbeing, there is an argument to say that he would be considerably shorter in the betting than the current 5.59/2. I'm not worried about the absence and nor should you be, for Farhh looks primed to run a mighty race. 

What of the remaining dangers? Well Camelot has become disappointing and has plenty to prove at present, so don't be tempted by the 18.535/2 currently on offer, whilst fellow Ballydoyle inmates Magician and Kingsbarns both come here on the back of hugely anti-climactic performances. 

The main one to worry about would appear to be William Haggas' Mukhadram, who looked most progressive earlier in the season as he improved to finish second in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes. His effort in the Eclipse confirmed his improvement and a subsequent win in the Group 2 York Stakes enhanced his record further, beating Grandeur by three-quarters of a length after looking to idle slightly in the closing stages. 

Lightly-raced as he is, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that Mukhadram could yet pull out a little bit more in terms of improvement. His current level would probably see him battling for second with Cirrus Des Aigles as Farrh bounds into a clear lead but it would be foolish to write him off completely. 

How far is Farhh going to win the Champion Stakes by? A qualified mystic would say "very" but I'm going to be a bit more specific and say two and a half lengths. It doesn't matter of course, as we'll land the cash anyhow, but if my speculative effort proves to be correct you may well see a new advert in your Sunday tabloid. Now where's my crystal ball...

Recommendation:
Back Farhh @ 5.59/2 in the Champion Stakes

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