Grand National Runner-by-Runner Guide: Daryl Carter finds a 66/1 bet for the big one
Get the views of expert tipster Daryl Carter on the full 2023 Grand National field in our runner-by-runner guide to the big one at Aintree
-
Daryl takes a look at each runner with his in-depth guide to the Grand National
-
A Gordon Elliott runner is "well overpriced" at 66/1
-
Gavin Cromwell's grey stands out in the market
Corach Rambler
8/1 to win the National
A hot prospect for this contest, after having made history by winning back-to-back Ultima Handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival and is officially ten pounds well in the handicap. He had a Mildmay course win here at Aintree last year and has done nothing but progress since then.
He is hard to pick holes in, but he did idle in the closing stages of the Ultima Handicap, and Aintree's long home straight would have to be a concern for backers. His hold-up racing style could cause problems in a field size such as this, and he will need plenty of luck in running.
Still, he ticks plenty of boxes for this contest outside of his short price, and he will travel through this race looking like the winner for much of it, no doubt. Massive player.
Noble Yeats
8/1 to win the National
Last year's winner will attempt to repeat the feat from a handicap rating of 166, and along with the previous year's runner-up, Any Second Now, he would be the highest-rated horse to win the Grand National in at least a decade.
He does at least have age on his side over that rival, and this progressive eight-year-olds only run beyond 3m2f resulted in victory here. He has improved his form this season and has been crying out to go back out in distance signalled by his most recent strong finishing fourth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
He has strong claims despite the weight burden, and it would be a huge surprise should he not at least fill the frame.
Delta Work
8/1 to win the National
He landed his second cross-country victory when outbattling stablemate Galvin at this year's Cheltenham Festival. He was an excellent third in this contest 12 months ago, having come from further back than ideal and is fairly handicapped on the balance of his form.
He is a very useful horse on his day and is sure to give his running again off just one pound lower 12 months on, but he might prove vulnerable to a more progressive rival. He does, however, have rock-solid each-way claims.
Any Second Now
16/1 to win the National
He is now 11 years old but was an excellent runner-up on his second attempt in this event last year to Noble Yeats and has been sparingly raced this season with this the ultimate target.
He arrives on the back of a good victory at Navan over 2 1/2 miles, but the handicapper has dropped him in the weights despite the win. He will now officially run seven pounds out of the handicap off of a rating of 167 which is eight pounds higher than he was last year and 19 pounds higher than the average rated winner of this contest in the last nine years.
He has a very stiff task, but it is ultra-reliable, and he clearly likes this venue. Given his weight, hitting the frame would be a big result for connections.
Longhouse Poet
14/1 to win the National
Longhouse Poet travelled smoothly through this contest last term but lacked the pace in the closing stages and finished a creditable sixth. There's little reason to think he could enhance that positioning this year off of the same mark, but he is a strong traveller and another with solid place claims.
Mr Incredible (pictured above)
12/1 to win the National
He ran a scorcher in the Kim Muir handicap at the Cheltenham Festival when given far too much to do from the rear of the field. A sloppy error at the final flight saw him lose momentum, but he picked up well to the line suggesting that a significant stamina test such as this would prove right up his street.
He looks on a very workable rating of 145 (two pounds well in) on the latest evidence, and spring ground will see him to better effect than the soft he encountered on his latest outing.
This is a progressive seven-year-old with untapped potential over extreme distances and has shown a touch of class when with his former handler Henry De Bromhead he is only going to improve now in the hands of Willie Mullins.
He has a far bigger performance, and he makes plenty of appeal. Big, big player.
Gaillard Du Mesnil
11/1 to win the National
He took advantage of being a second season Novice when scoring at the Cheltenham Festival in the National Hunt Chase and needed every yard of that 3m6f distance to get up and win.
That run confirmed his stamina, and his effortless travelling style will be well suited to this contest. The British handicapper dropped him one pound for the effort, so he is effectively out of the handicap, but this distance could bring about further improvement, providing that race hasn't left a mark.
If it hasn't, it's challenging to see him out of the frame with luck in running and aged just seven; there's surely more to come from him--sound claims.
Our Power
22/1 to win the National
Has racked up two good victories this season, claiming some valuable prizes at Kempton and Ascot, and connections decided to skip Cheltenham in favour of this event.
He has been kept fresh by design, having shown his best form after a break, but his stamina is no given, having clung on after hitting the front at Kempton last time, and he is likely to be found wanting at the business end.
Galvin (pictured above)
20/1 to win the National
He had looked regressive this season until the spark reignited when sent over the cross-country course at the Cheltenham Festival, and an excellent second-placed effort there to Delta Work now makes him of some interest.
A former classy customer and a Grade 1 Savills Chase winner in 2021, he has stacks of stamina. His three efforts beyond 3m saw him score in the National Hunt Chase, a fourth in the 2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup and the latest second in the Cross Country Chase.
Surprisingly this is his first visit to the Liverpool venue in his career, but his small stature and hefty weight could be a cause for concern over these large fences.
Vanilier
20/1 to win the National
He has generally struggled since winning the 2021 Albert Bartlett two seasons ago. His only win over fences came in a poorly contested Grade 2 novice event at Punchestown last season.
He bounced right back to form with a fast-finishing second when chasing home the classy 157-rated Kemboy when attempting to give him eight pounds at Fairyhouse on his latest start.
That was a cracking effort considering he would be 20 lb better off if meeting that rival in a handicap such as this. There's room for improvement in the jumping department, but he is starting to get his act together, and the recent fitting of the cheek-pieces has certainly helped.
He comes good in the spring and will enjoy a quicker surface while he has left the impression there is a bigger performance in him. He looks like one of the better-treated runners in the field in handicapping terms off of a rating of 147, and he must have a big chance.
Le Milos (pictured above)
14/1 to win the National
Dan Skelton trained and was an excellent winner of the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury on his penultimate start and warmed up for this event with a second at Kelso, having looked a little rusty.
This has been his target since Newbury, and he is a progressive young chaser, having won five of his ten starts over fences. There are nagging doubts over his stamina, having been collared late at Kelso, and he is likely to prove vulnerable to stronger stayers at the finish.
The Big Dog
16/1 to win the National
The Big Dog may be a ten-year-old, but he continues to run well and claimed third place in the Welsh National earlier this season. The softer the ground, the better for him, but it would be disappointing should younger legs not have the edge on him when push comes to shove in the finish - likeable sort, but not good enough.
Capodanno
16/1 to win the National
Capadanno has a 50% strike rate when running on good or better ground and finished last season with a strong Champion Novice Chase victory at Punchestown. He has only been seen once this term over 2 1/2 miles when second to owner-mate Janadil.
However, that was a trip short of his best, and he was returning from a seasonal break, so that run should have put him spot-on for this contest. He is only a seven-year-old and very lightly raced after just six career starts over fences and has come good in the spring.
He makes an appeal at big odds for a master trainer in Willie Mullins, and the suspicion is there is a more considerable effort in him yet. Fair claims.
Lifetime Ambition
28/1 to win the National
Capadanno and The Big Dog outstayed Jessica Harrington's Irish raider on the last two occasions he attempted three miles and now has an uphill task to turn the form around with those over this extreme distance. His jumping can be a cause for concern, but it's the distance that will likely see him beaten here--little chance.
Aint That A Shame
12/1 to win the National
He represents the excellent Henry De Bromhead, who won this two years ago with Minella Times and will likely be the choice of Racheal Blackmore.
He travelled strongly and ran well in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December and returned from a short break with a bloodless victory at Gowren Park 35 days ago over 2 1/2 miles.
He is very lightly raced for a nine-year-old and is open to significant improvement, but whether that improvement comes at this extreme distance remains the question.
Fury Road
25/1 to win the National
Fury Road has a very in-and-out profile, and it is challenging to back him with any confidence, particularly going beyond three miles for the first time in his career.
He is just 1-8 over three miles under rules, and his sole victory came in first-time cheek-pieces, so he would only pique the interest should connections decide to switch his headgear to the blinkers.
He ran well enough here in a Novice Chase behind the smart Ahoy Senor at this meeting last term over the conventional fences, but it's a guessing game of what to expect from him. Risky.
Carefully Selected
40/1 to win the National
Willie Mullins' 11-year-old got back to winning ways at Gowran Park when scoring in the Thyestes Chase on his penultimate start but found the competition all too hot when attempting to back that up in a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse last time.
He is lightly raced but would be a surprise winner with his big target of the season been and gone, while the career-best needed is probably an unfair ask of the older horse.
Favourites have just a 15% win rate in the Randox Health Grand National.
Coko Beach
33/1 to win the National
Coko Beach likely did too much too soon in this race last year when making the running and only managing a well-beaten eighth, but he comes into this contest in much better form this time, having scored in the Punchestown Grand National Trial by five lengths.
The slight concern is that he does run the Punchestown track well, and backing up that effort elsewhere has been an issue in the past. Still, he is only eight years old, and there could be further progress in him, but he lacks the class of some of these and his claims aren't overly compelling.
Velvet Elvis
33/1 to win the National
He has not been harshly treated by the British handicapper and has faced some tough tasks this season in Ireland but acquitted himself well.
However, many of those good efforts have come in smaller fields, and this scenario may not be a good fit. He found little for pressure in the Irish National last term, and his jumping can be a little scrappy for a contest like this.
Sam Brown (pictured above)
66/1 to win the National
Sam Brown has not proven the most reliable but has had some tough tasks in good company this season, and his excellent third in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby suggests he is not as dependent on soft ground as first thought.
He needs to prove his stamina for this distance, but he was an emphatic winner at this meeting last year in a strong handicap over three miles, and he is very lightly raced for an 11-year-old, having had issues earlier in his career. He is not one totally to write off, but he doesn't look like a winner in waiting.
Darasso
66/1 to win the National
Darasso has winning form over various distances, but he was a big eye-catcher in the Kerry National Handicap over 3m in September, finishing to good effect.
Despite having form on soft ground, his best efforts have come on yielding or better, and the combination of good ground and this extreme distance could see him to good effect. He is a dark horse and one not to underestimate.
Eva's Oskar (pictured above)
50/1 to win the National
He ran with extreme credit at Newcastle over 4m last time and is ultra-reliable. He only found Corach Rambler two lengths too good at Cheltenham in December 2021, and the market has been too quick to dismiss him.
He does save his best for Cheltenham, but he has left the impression there is a big pot in him. He may find himself out of his depth against some top-notch performers, but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see him claim a place should he take to these fences. Each-way claims.
Roi Mage
28/1 to win the National
The eleven-year-old has a great attitude but probably has his best days behind him, and he doesn't look particularly well-treated off of this rating of 149. Smaller fields look like his forte, and he would go down as an unlikely winner.
Fortescue
50/1 to win the National
Fortescue was only a 28/1 chance for this contest last year when unseating at the fourth last when out of contention, and he was better than the bare result in the Grand National Trial at Haydock on his latest start.
Still, this is an uphill task for the nine-year-old despite having a good fourth under his belt in the Becher Chase over 3m2f. He could outrun his odds but is not the most obvious of winners.
465 yards is the distance between the last fence and the winning post!
The Big Breakaway
50/1 to win the National
He was last seen pulling up in the Ultima Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival, but this galloping track is probably more up his street. He ran a career-best at Chepstow on his penultimate start to finish runner-up in the Welsh Grand National, and although it seems he has been around forever, he is still only eight.
He has been more miss than hit in the last 12 months, but his finishing effort at Chepstow suggests this extreme stamina test will suit, and he is no forlorn hope as the market suggests. Big player if bouncing back from Cheltenham.
Dunboyne
50/1 to win the National
Dunboyne is not one to trust fully, but he has shown glimmers of promise in selective starts, and if he is on a going day today, an improvement could be forthcoming.
He has a bit to find with a few of these, but his short-head second to Carefully Selected in the Thyestes Chase on his penultimate start suggests stamina won't be an issue.
He was tenderly handled on his latest start once his chance had gone, but there was a moment where he picked up quite takingly, and he gave off similar vibes to that of last year's winner Noble Yeats. Most of his career has been spent over trips too short, and he is a lively outsider.
Minella Trump
50/1 to win the National
A northern raider with a prolific strike rate scoring in eight of his 12 chase starts, but he has been expertly placed by his master trainer Donald McCain in far weaker contests than this, and today is a whole different ball game. No chance.
Hill Sixteen
50/1 to win the National
A ten-year-old who showed up well for a long way in the Becher Chase over these fences in December but failed to see out the 3m2f distance on that occasion.
That performance was a far cry away from his excellent nose second to Snow Leopardess in the same race in 2021, and he looks to be showing signs of decline, having run poorly on his first start after a wind operation at Kelso latest. Vulnerable to improving horses.
63% of horses will not complete the course that has 30 fences to be jumped.
Mister Coffey
40/1 to win the National
Mister Coffey represents powerhouse yard Nicky Henderson who has this race missing from his exceptional CV, but his representative could only manage third in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham.
A rating of 145 back in a handicap here is not beyond him, but the concern is that he failed to take to these fences in the Topham Chase on this card last year despite being heavily backed into favouritism.
He could be an each-way player, but he lacks a change of gear and is hard to recommend in this discipline, having cost punters plenty of cash already. Risky.
Escaria Ten
100/1 to win the National
He finished ninth in this race last year, beaten 75 lengths, and has become an exposed chaser with a strike rate of just 1-11 over fences. Given his early promise, he has been frustrating in the main, and it would be a shock to see a jolt of improvement to win this--little chance.
Diol Ker
80/1 to win the National
Noel Meade's runner is fairly treated on the balance of his form and caught the eye with a strong finishing effort in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December in first-time blinkers.
That headgear didn't have the same effect next time when hampered by a faller mid-race at Punchestown, but it would be folly to write him off on that basis. It's hard to find many negatives with one at such big odds if on a going day, and he is one of the likelier outsiders.
A Wave Of The Sea
100/1 to win the National
A Wave Of The Sea has been highly tried for a seven-year-old with 37 races under his belt and has never won beyond 2m4f. His stamina has to be a big question mark - little chance
Enjoy D'allen
80/1 to win the National
He got no further than the first in this contest last year when unseating his rider, but a few quietly fancied him. It's very hard to have any confidence in his current run of form this time, and he has not won since January 2021.
Cloudy Glen
50/1 to win the National
A really likeable sort who returned to action with an excellent third to Quick Wave in the Grand National Trial at Haydock when travelling like the winner for much of the contest.
Typically he failed to reproduce that performance next time in the Ultima Handicap, confirming that he is best when fresh when running off a break. He has a stiff task in this company.
Gabby's Cross
66/1 to win the National
Gabby's Cross is another representative of Henry De Bromhead and has given the impression that he has a good pot in him this season. He has caught the eye staying on in three-mile contests, but most of them have been very steadily run, and the only time he got a true test of stamina at three miles, he was well held. Still, the return to a sounder surface will only aid his cause, and he is not yet fully exposed. Interesting.
Back On The Lash
33/1 to win the National
Back On The Lash has his big day in the Cheltenham Cross Country handicap each year, and it's rare for him to back up such an effort in the same season. A loveable horse but an improbable winner.
Cape Gentleman
100/1 to win the National
Cape Gentleman's jumping has been the downfall of an otherwise solid campaign over the last 18 months, and he has proven his versatility over various distances and disciplines. He hasn't given the impression that he is crying out for a test of stamina like this, though.
Recite A Prayer
66/1 to win the National
He was well held in the Becher Handicap Chase and has shown little worthwhile form to think he can play a hand in the finish. It will take more than the magic of Willie Mullins to get him over the line. No chance.
Francky Du Berlais
100/1 to win the National
Francky Du Berlais refused at the final fences in the Cross Country at the Cheltenham Festival and will make his fourth appearance over these fences (first in the National). He is exposed and would be a shock winner
1973 was the year that Red Rum scored his first of three Grand National wins. In 1974 he successfully defended his crown. Red Rum finished runner up in both 1975, 1976 but he returned to Aintree in 1977 to complete the historic treble.
Born By The Sea
50/1 to win the National
Beaten a combined distance of 148 lengths in his last four outings, and even on his best form, he would struggle in this company. Avoid.
It was the closest finish in the 165 year history of the Grand National. A photo was needed to separate Neptune Collonges from Sunnyhillboy. It was deemed that Neptune Collonges had snatched victory by the slimmest of margins.
Big race verdict
A tremendous renewal with plenty of classy sorts, including last year's winner Noble Yeats, who still has more to offer and will relish the return to Aintree and will surely be in the frame even off of this lofty weight.
He is priced accordingly, as is your favourite Corach Rambler, whose claims are there for all to see after a fantastic Ultima Handicap victory--putting him ten pounds well in for this contest.
However, the Grand National is an altogether different discipline, and he is not guaranteed to take to this test, so relying on the fact that he is "well handicapped" on his efforts over the conventional fences may prove costly for punters.
He can be left alone at his short Sportsbook odds. Darasso, The Big Breakaway, Gaillard Du Mesnil, and Diol Ker must all be seriously considered.
The average rating of the winner in this contest in the last nine years is 148, and one of the best-handicapped horses in this contest is surely Gavin Cromwell's 147-rated VANILLIER, who bounced right back to form at Fairyhouse.
He is a second-season chaser whose jumping let him down during his novice season, but that is considerably better nowadays, and he remains lightly raced over fences. The likely yielding ground will see him to good effect, and the cheek-pieces have improved him the last twice, and this trip looks sure to suit.
Next on the list is Mr Incredible, who has a big pot in him off of this rating of 145 and has left the impression there is plenty more to come. He stays very well; this has been his ultimate target all season, and his lightly raced profile is very attractive. The return to the better ground will see him in the best light, and he has excellent claims of hitting the frame.
Dunboyne finished behind Mr Incredible in the Kim Muir but has to be of interest here, having run a similar race to the above, and he completes the shortlist.
He is well over-priced at 66/1 at the time of writing and just lacked the pace to get involved in the Kim Muir, having come from a mile off of the pace. He is quirky, but we are yet to see the best of him, and he will travel smoothly through this contest and rates a good each-way play.
My Grand National Prediction:
Recommended bets
Back Vanillier to win the Grand National at 16/1
GET £50 IN FREE BETS MULTIPLES WHEN YOU SPEND £10 ON THE BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK
New customers only. Bet £10 on the Betfair Sportsbook at odds of min EVS (2.0) and receive £50 in FREE Bet Builders, Accumulators or Multiples to use on any sport. T&Cs apply.
Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.
Discover the latest articles
Most Read Stories
-
Horse Racing Tips & Predictions
Betfred Oaks Big Race Verdict: Back Junior to trump his father on the Downs
-
Horse Racing Tips & Predictions
Royal Ascot 2026: Everything you need to know in our Mega Guide
-
Horse Racing Tips & Predictions
Rachael Blackmore on the Punchestown Festival: My verdict on the big races on Thursday, Friday and Saturday
-
Horse Racing Tips & Predictions
Paul Nicholls Season Review: Highlights, winners and a cool £2m
-
Horse Racing Tips & Predictions
James Mackie's Cheltenham Tips: A trio of Mullins runners to back on Gold Cup day