Guineas

Sunday ITV Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's best bets for 1,000 Guineas day

Betfair Ambassador Tony Calvin
Tony Calvin brings us his best bets for 1,000 Guineas day

We've reached the final day of Newmarket's Guineas meeting with the fillies' classic being the feature race on the card. Tony Calvin reiterates his ante-post tip and has a fresh bet elsewhere on the afternoon...

  • 12/113.00 ante-post tip still fancied in 1,000 Guineas

  • Outsider of the seven can go well in Listed race

  • Tricky puzzles to solve elsewhere


Ryan Moore Superboost (Ylang Ylang)

Ryan Moore was out of luck on City Of Troy in yesterday's 2,000 Guineas but the Betfair Ambassador holds leading claims of landing today's 1,000 Guineas aboard Ylang Ylang, and if you fancy the 3yo filly to finish in the top five today then you can back her at the super-boosted price of 6/42.50.

Back Ylang Ylang to finish Top 5 in 15:40 Newmarket @ 6/42.50

Bet here

It wouldn't be the best betting line-up that ITV have hosted - there is an easy joke to be had there, but I won't be making it - but any race card that includes a Classic can't be all that bad, so let's crack on with Sunday's racing at Newmarket.

Newmarket - 15:40: Ramatuelle advised ante-post

Those with family duties to attend to will be happy to learn that this isn't one of my War And Peace missives, not least because I nailed my mast to the colours of the Tricolore (not sure if that works but it is staying in) in the shape of Ramatuelle for the 1,000 Guineas on April 17, and I have little more to add.

She was 12s then, and she is now 15/28.50 with the Sportsbook.

Now, apologies if you have read the argument below for her twice before, but plenty will be new to the punting party, so I make no apologies for effectively cutting and pasting previous copy.

Little has changed since April 17, with the exception that I didn't expect her to have 15 rivals to deal with.

First things first, I certainly wouldn't be too downbeat about her narrow prep defeat to the progressive French 1,000- Guineas-bound Romantic Style in the 7f Prix Imprudence on heavy at Deauville. It was an encouraging return, and it sounds as if that was a planned, deliberate soft-launch to Newmarket.

The last two French winners of this race were beaten in that trial. The previous scorer from across the Channel, Natagora, won it, and it is a traditional Gallic stepping stone, back to the days of Hatoof and Ravinella.

In short, she wasn't drilled for that prep and it crucially confirmed her well-being after the winter.

And I am of the opinion that she is arguably the form filly on her narrow second to Vandeek in the 6f Prix Morny, as well as her wide-margin Group wins at Chantilly previously, one of whom crucially came on good to firm according to Timeform. If it dries out further, then that will help as regards the stamina question.

The official handicapper only has her 2lb off Fallen Angel, for what it is worth, and she is nearly three times the price on the exchange.

The weather can do what it wants for her, but the less testing the ground probably the better, with her unproven stamina in mind.

As regards that Morny form, the winner went on to win the Middle Park by 2 ¼ lengths; the third, River Tiber, finished third in at Newmarket Group 1; the fourth, Sacred Angel, finished third in the Cheveley Park; the fifth, Valiant Force, was beaten ½ length in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf; and the sixth, Sajir, has won his next two starts, including in a Group 3 on his return.

Ramatuelle is unproven at the track and the trip - clear negatives and worries, let's be honest - but she shaped well enough over 7f in an admittedly slowly-run race at Deauville and she is a Justify and his progeny tend to get a mile well.

Trainer Christopher Head came over to the UK twice in 2023, with Big Rock strolling home by 6 lengths in the QEII and Blue Rose Cen finishing a respectable fourth in the Nassau, so he knows what he is doing when coming over, and he broke a moderate spell at home with a 2yo winner on Wednesday.

And, looking at my pace maps below, I think she is drawn around the likely speed. I have possible forward-goers in 4, 7 9, 10 and 12.

She remains a fair bet in the race at around 9s on the exchange, but I see no need to press up, as this is a bit more competitive than I was hoping for.

In fact, I can actually see her being weak in the betting - betting xenophobia may kick in - but second-guessing the exchange these days is a game for better minds than mine.

Newmarket field sun 956.jpg

I respect See The Fire most of the opposition (at the prices, obviously) but this is a wide-open race and 16 runners means there will be hard-luck stories due to track position, as there tends to be in big-field Classics here.

It also means I don't think it is an each-way race, for all the Sportsbook are paying an extra place.

Hopefully, Ramatuelle being housed in midfield in 11 will give her rider Aurelien Lemaitre options, as they say.

I have never heard of him to be honest, so I had to remind myself he rode the aforementioned Big Rock and Blue Rose Cen. The only French person I had previously heard of called Aurelien was the former French winger Rougerie.

If you wanted a real left-field one at three figures on the exchange, Star Music was a bitter disappointment to connections when trailing home last in the Fred Darling (when a massive late drifter, which may have told the story beforehand), and she is rated a lot, lot better than that on her homework.

Newmarket - 13:50: No Bet

I have wheeled out the dangerous dead-eight a few times already this week, and we have that dread-inducing number in the opening 3yo 1m2f fillies Listed race at 13:50.

Given the lightly-raced nature of the participants, all winners, you probably don't want to be too bullish here but it was hard not to be very taken by Kalpana here last month, albeit her 10-length handicap win only came off a mark of a mere 78.

She has been re-assessed on 94 after that runaway win and, while this is clearly a stiffer test, she did look at least up to this level last time, having previously done well to finish second to the dangerous 2,000 Guineas outsider Inisherin (hopefully he is, anyway) under a penalty at Newcastle previously.

She is one of only three in here with a recent run, so I can fully see the case for her at the Sportsbook's 15/82.88, though I can happily let her win unbacked and untipped at those odds, given the make-up of the opposition.

But if you want a bet in the race, I'd suggest Kalpana.

Newmarket - 14:25: Back Astral Beau

We have seven in the 1m1f fillies' Group 2 at 14:25 and we will probably end up with six, as Novus is due to run at Goodwood on Saturday. She is 9s, so there will be a small Rule 4 if she is.

Mind you, she won 48 hours after running at Goodwood last year, so we could have another quick turnaround.

Running Lion has an obvious chance on her Pretty Polly win on this card last year, but I thought she was a very unappealing price at the Sportsbook's 13/82.63.

Given the tightly-knit nature of the race ratings-wise - and it is more akin to a good Listed race rather than a Group 2 - I initially I thought I'd probably rather be a watcher, than a bettor, though you could easily argue Astral Beau is overpriced at 10/111.00 with the Sportsbook.

Very easily as it turns out, though possibly you'd rather see her at a mile, as I can see her getting outstayed late on. I am very happy to flag that up; indeed, as I said yesterday you have to lay out the negatives for all selections and not just paint the rosiest picture.

If she sees off the returning Heartache Tonight for the lead, she could get a solo up front here and her reappearance second to Charyn at Doncaster (where she didn't dominate) was franked by the winner following up in a Group 2 at Sandown last weekend.

And this is a mare who is two from four on this course, with a third to the Group 1-winning Via Sistina in this race last season, a contest where again she didn't manage to lead. There are no Via Sistina's in this.

She is ground-versatile (it looks like being good) and she is probably only 10s because of the snobbery with Pam Sly (who won with this mare's half-sister Astral Spirit at Wetherby last week) training her.

The Newmarket Classic-winning Sly, lest you forget.

God, was Speciosa 18 years ago?

I think plenty pigeon-hole Astral Beau as a deep-ground specialist (and she does have form figures of 11132 on soft and heavy) but two of her better efforts have actually come at Epsom, and in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes on the July course, on good to firm and good going respectively. She was marked up at 107 at one stage last season, and that puts her right in the ratings ballpark here.

Back her at 10/111.00 win-only with the Sportsbook, or 11.010/1 or bigger on the exchange, to small stakes on a very quiet punting day.

Back Astral Beau, Win only, in 14:25 Newmarket @ 10/111.00

Bet here

Newmarket - 15:00: No Bet

I normally love a handicap, especially one paying four places in a 12-runner field, but I must say that I found the 15:00 very tricky.

My lean was towards Vaguely Royal back on turf, having been running well in good-class all-weather handicaps - I like the angle of him stepping down in trip here, too - but the Sportsbook odds-compilers, chalking him up at 5s when he is 8s elsewhere, had my train of thought well sussed.

And, to be straight, I had three fresh looks at this race and came up with a different conclusion every time, with Berkshire Rocco the other serious conclusion, though he is a touch on the short side at 8s when he is two point bigger elsewhere (you simply have to flag these things).

In short, if in doubt, pass. Especially if a 20-stone bruiser is lining you up.

Salisbury - 14:40: No Bet

I can never get my head around the powers-that-be putting 2yo races on ITV at this time of the year.

I thought the idea was to maximise betting turnover on the biggest TV stage, but we are confronted with an eight-runner fillies' juvenile race at Salisbury at 14:40 - sorry, a dangerous dead-eight - a race in which five have run once and three not at all.

Oh, and the race is going to be run on heavy ground, as well.

Yes, I have a really strong opinion on this, armed with those facts. Not.

I'd seriously rather they put the 14-runner amateur jockeys' handicap, worth a paltry £3.725.25 to the winner, on ITV instead.

Hamilton - 14:05: No Bet

The other race on the box is the seven-runner 1m5f handicap at 14:05 at Hamilton.

Now, this is another head-scratcher but I was amused to see the 12yo Sir Chauvelin won this very race in 2016. Eight years between Hamilton drinks must be some sort of record.

Perhaps he and fellow old boy, 11yo Euchen Glen, can roll back the years off falling handicap marks (they are 20s and 25s in places) but it wasn't a puzzle I was desperately keen to solve, in truth.

I trust you have a great Bank Holiday weekend, and I am hoping we hear La Marseillaise booming out from the Newmarket winner's (or is it winners') enclosure around 3.45pm on Sunday.

If so, I'll have a few bottles of red (actually I am going through a white phase at the moment) on standby.

Go well, and stay well.


GOING & WEATHER

Newmarket: Good (after 5mm on Friday; largely dry Saturday and Sunday)

Hamilton: Good to soft, though not updated since 7.44am Friday (2mm Saturday and Sunday combined)

Salisbury: Heavy, soft in places, though not updated since 6.56am on Friday (2.7mm forecast from late morning on Sunday)

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR (for ITV races)

Gary Moore hood 2-33 (2012)

PACE MAPS

1.50pm Newmarket: Carolina Reaper? Gray's Inn (prominent), Kitteridge (prom)

2.05pm Hamilton: Manu Et Corde?, Euchen Glen?, Capital Theory?,

2.25pm Newmarket: Astral Beau, Heartache Tonight

2.40pm Salisbury: Not enough evidence

3.00pm Newmarket: New London, Intinso (prom), Berkshire Rocco, Struth, Vaguely Royal (prom), Torcello

3.40pm Newmarket: Sacred Angel (9), Star Music (7), Star Style (10), Tamfana (4), Ylang Ylang (12)

BALLOTED OUT (money back for ante-post punters): N/A

TRAINER FORM - for all with entries in Sunday's ITV races (does not include Saturday's results):

Excellent: Jack Channon (flying), Andrew Balding

Good: Charlie Appleby, Johnston, Gosdens, Keatley, Burke, Hughes, Amy Murphy, Millman

Fair: Palmer, Simcock, Sly (not many runners), Menuisier, Morrison, King, Bell, Owen, Varian, Donnacha O'Brien, Head, Hannon, Jardine, Goldie, Johnson Houghton, Sangster

Moderate: Beckett (only one winner in April/May), Moores, Nicol (bit very few runners, so maybe harsh), Ferguson (possibly fair), Aidan O'Brien, Fahey, Jane Chapple-Hyam, Easterbys (borderline fair), David Evans (though winner on Thursday)

Undecided: Lycett, Sayer


Now read Ryan Moore on his 1,000 Guineas ride here.


Recommended bets

PROFIT AND LOSS

2024 Flat season:

STAKED:  5
RETURN: 11
P AND L: +6

2023-24 NH season:

STAKED: 127
RETURN: 143.4
P/L:    +16.4

April 16-Oct 31; 2023 Flat season:

STAKED:  202
RETURNS: 168.9
P AND L:  -33.1

March 26 2022 -April 15 2023:

Staked: 436
Returns: 643.6
P/L: +207.6

April 14 2021 to March 25 2022:

P/L: + 183.1

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