Goodwood Tips for Wednesday: Tony Calvin says 3/1 Amleto has so much going for him

• Moore's Paddington will be hard to beat

• Amleto so good TC takes 3/14.00

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The ground was described as good to soft, soft in places at Goodwood on Tuesday morning after 6.2mm of rain on Monday. The workshy part-timers playing golf in a HWPA/media event nearby couldn't believe the track only got 1.6mm from late morning onwards. One wasn't buying the 1.6mm line at all as "my shoes had standing water in them and my boxers were fully wet through".

The weather situation could, however, get much, much tastier from the evening into Wednesday.

Of course, just how much lands from here on in is pretty much impossible to tell (one site is saying 17mm on Wednesday) but it will obviously be a big plus if your horse is already proven in the mud.

Goodwood - 15:35: No bet

Paddington is, and it is very difficult to see him being beaten in the Sussex Stakes after he (and the weather) has scared off credible challengers in Nostrum and Modern Games. As a heavy ground winner, and the best horse in the race, he apparently will run whatever the weather does.

However, we know the three-time Group 1 winner Inspiral has the capability to put it up to him if at her best. She shaped very well on her return in the Queen Anne and two of her top grade wins have come on good to soft.

Whether she wants it soft (or worse) is a question mark, but a potential tick in that box could possibly be gleaned from the fact that her dam ran her best race when second in the Coronation Stakes on soft.

Aldaary and Facteur Cheval were the ante-post each-way thieving bets when it became obvious this race was going to cut up from 10 entries at the five-day stage - the bookmakers were very slow to cotton on to this, so they were fair game, especially the firm that still had Aldaary at 66/167.00 in a 1,2,3 market on Saturday morning - as they are confirmed mudlarks. But it is hard to get involved in the Without Favourite market until we know the likely state of the Wednesday afternoon ground.

Goodwood - 15:00: No bet

Once again, the four ITV races don't really play to my supposed strengths, as a juvenile race and a ridiculously close-knit 16-runner fillies and mares Group contest are not doing a lot for me.

The dead eight in the Molecomb at 15:00 should come with a flashing lights, sirens-wailing, warning as a shedload of rain will surely see at least one of the youngsters come out and reduced each-way terms to 1,2.

Indeed, a withdrawal could even be one of the big two in the market, with Kylian at 7/42.75 just shading 9/43.25 Big Evs, with 8/19.00 bar those two on the Sportsbook.

The impressive Windsor Castle winner (in a very good time) Big Evs has raced on only good to firm to date, while Kylian's equally dominant win at Sandown last time came on good.

Kylian was withdrawn because of soft ground on his intended debut at Newmarket in May. Furthermore, Timeform called it good to soft (against an official description of good to firm) when he was chinned at 4/91.44 at Carlisle.

It looks a race to swerve to me tipping-wise as the only horse proven in the likely conditions, soft ground winner Hackman, was the horse destroyed six lengths by Kylian at Sandown last time.

That said, I have chucked a few quid win-only on the horse named after the mighty Gene (favourite film of his is No Way Out with a young Kevin Costner) on ground alone, and hopefully a first-time tongue-tie will help, too.

Goodwood - 14:25: No bet

That 7f Group 3 for the ladies at 14:25 is just ridiculously difficult. Ignoring the fact that there will be probably be in-running carnage with so many runners, just 5lb separates the six highest-rated in the race.

And then if you go down another 4lb, another five get drawn into the net.

I can honestly say it is one of the most unappealing betting contests I have seen on ITV this Flat season and even six places for each-way purposes, and a chunky price, wouldn't tempt me in.

For what it is worth, I thought Matilda Picotte was probably the most solid proposition, back on a softer surface after being drawn out of it over 6f at Haydock on fast ground last time. And she could try to go forward again to stay out of trouble.

But she is drawn 16 of 16 and she is just 15/28.50 with the Sportsbook - though that draw could actually turn out to be good in bad ground - which is no particular bargain in my eyes.

Sorry about the three no-bets in those races then, but I only tip when I am punting myself, as regular readers will know. And I also make no apologies for being very selective, even on a big day of racing. It's very easy to bandy tips around but discipline is key.

Goodwood - 13:50: Back Amleto

On to the opening 1m4f handicap at 13:50, and even this race presented me with a big dilemma.

Now, I hate tipping at the tail-end of a disappearing price and I said in a recent column that it would take something special to make me play at sub 4/15.00.

But Amleto, who opened up at 5/16.00 on Monday morning and is now into 3/14.00 on the Sportsbook, appears to have so much going for him it is untrue (there is still some 7/24.50 elsewhere, but that won't last).

He looks more of a 2/13.00 poke to me, so I'd be hopeful I am not getting involved at the end of the market move.

He is currently 4.47/2 on the Betfair Exchange, and I'd back him at 4.03/1 or bigger, and that obviously takes in the 3/14.00 with the Sportsbook. I think win-only with the Sportsbook is the way to play him here, but take bigger on the exchange if you can, obviously.

He does meet some in-form rivals but none have anywhere near his handicap upside and a patient ride - I count six forward-goers in here - and luck in running will surely see him prove very hard to beat.

Gelded after two all-weather starts in the autumn (fourth in a hot novice), he was given a classic handicap prep by his trainer William Haggas, avoiding a top-tier track and going up to Chester for his maiden win in May at odds of 7/24.50.

He was backed from 5/16.00 on the show but he went off at a Betfair SP of 5.74237/50, so he wasn't exactly expected that day.

Nevertheless, he looks fairly treated off a mark of 89 on that emphatic victory in soft ground alone (Timeform called it heavy) as the 3 ½-length runner-up was beaten only a short-head off a mark of 79 in a handicap next time. And he actually won off 80 at Ayr on Monday.

So Amleto's mark is fine as it stands, we know he handles anything the weather can throw at him, and his potential is huge after just three starts and given his pedigree.

He is a brother to the stable's dual Group 1 winner and luckless Arc runner-up Sea Of Class, as well as being related to a whole host of 100+ horses, including the Irish Cesarewitch winner Waterville, so the upside is obvious.

And the step up to 1m4f is unlikely to be any hardship given that breeding and the manner of his Chester win.

It is fair to say handicap good things frequently get beaten at Goodwood - indeed, Haggas' Soulcombe should probably have won this race when fourth last season, as he met trouble before flying home, and he then went on to win the Melrose by 4 ¼ lengths off a 2lb higher mark next time before being sold to Australia - but a troubled run could be Amleto's main barrier to success here.

I am happy to get involved at his current price. Very occasionally, the obvious path is the best route to take. I am not worried about Amleto's absence since May, as Haggas is a very patient trainer who maps out long-term plans for his handicappers.

I did have a look at the three races after ITV come off air but nothing really appealed. The infuriating Rhoscolyn has an obvious chance in the 17:20 after showing a lot more at Beverley last time and he has a lot in his favour - handicap mark, course, ground - bar the price.

He certainly has not been missed in the market, though, and well, he is Rhoscolyn.

Good luck.

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