Mark Milligan is back to cover the final day of Glorious Goodwood where he's keeping a pair onside in the big handicap of the week...
-
Mark Milligan tries to unravel the Stewards' Cup
-
With draw doubts he picks one from each side
-
Free bet for customers betting £5 on multis during Goodwood. T&Cs apply.
If the weather forecast proves accurate, Goodwood could well be deluged before and during racing on Saturday, which makes the 6f Stewards' Cup (15:35) even more tricky to decipher than usual, with punters scratching their heads as to where the best draw will be.
When things get really testing at the Sussex venue, the stand side is often the place to be, and that was certainly the case with the races that were run on testing ground earlier in the week.
However, with the ground drying a touch through Thursday, the closing sprint that day favoured those who were drawn low and raced towards the far side.
Bearing in mind I'm penning the majority of this column before Friday's racing, that's essentially all I have to go on, so the prudent option is to go into the big handicap double-handed, with a runner on each side of the track.
Tanmawwy has often shaped as if having a big sprint handicap in him, and while he can throw in the odd clunker, if he's on a going day and ends up drawn on the correct side, he could take plenty of stopping.
Charlie Hills' ex-Shadwell gelding ran really well to finish second in deep ground on his reappearance at Newbury, suggesting he shouldn't have any problems if the expected heavy rain does materialise.
He then threw in one of his bad runs at Newmarket before bouncing right back to form with a win at Windsor last time, producing a career best.
He also has the benefit of excellent 5lb claimer Conor Planas in the saddle, who negates the majority of the penalty Tanmaawy picked up for that Windsor success.
While we should have the far side of the track covered courtesy of Tanmawwy, I'm keen to have one on the near side too. The back-to-form Significantly ticks plenty of boxes.
A smart juvenile who was placed in listed company for Karl Burke, he really took off in handicaps the following season, taking a pair of valuable events at Ascot, including the Palace Of Holyrood House at the Royal meeting.
His handicap mark suffered last season as a result of those successes, and he cut little ice starting off from 104, where a series of poor efforts saw him tumble down the weights.
Revitalised by a switch to Julie Camacho's yard this season, Significantly took advantage of a much-reduced perch of 87 on just his second start for the yard when taking a Haydock handicap last month.
Bumped up 6lb for that, he confirmed his return to form with a good second back at Ascot last time, beaten only by one who was producing a career best following a stable switch.
With those Ascot successes as a 3-y-o coming from marks of 92 and 96, it doesn't take a genius to work out that Significantly could still be well treated in here off 93.
He may well also turn out to have the plum draw in 28, and the fact that he's an uncomplicated sort who can go forward adds to the appeal even more.
Given the highly competitive nature of this contest, it's great that we have 6 places to go at on the Sportsbook, and with both Tanmawwy from the low boxes and Signifcantly from the high, I think we've got two solid warriors to go into battle with.
Swerving the other extra place races
I'm not the kind of analyst who puts up bets for the sake of it, and I had a good look at the other extra place races on Goodwood's Saturday card, but nothing stood out enough for me to recommend a bet.
The 1m 6f race at 14:25 could have a handicap blot in it in the shape of Sweet William, but he certainly isn't one for this column at around 2/1, and I didn't feel confident enough about any of the others to put them up against him.
There are also a couple of other extra place races, but again nothing stood out and I'd rather keep the powder dry for another day.
As ever, good luck if you're playing and let's hope we can finish the festival in style with one of our two selections landing the big handicap of the week.