"Consequently, I'm siding with Spades Are Trumps, who was an emphatic winner over further at Downpatrick in mind and who looks to have been targeted at this prize."
Mark Milligan is back to look at Friday's Galway card and has a trio of selections on both flat and jumps...
It's probably fair to say Galway hasn't been too kind to us this week but it's a marathon (almost literally for those in attendance every day!) not a sprint, and there are still a few more days left for us to turn a profit.
Friday's opening Guinness Galway Tribes Handicap Hurdle (17:00) is wide open and there aren't many of the 17-strong field that can be ruled out with any great conviction.
Nibiru ran well here twice at last year's Festival and looks to have been teed up nicely for a crack at this contest with a win on the flat at Fairyhouse following a five-month break.
He still looks fairly handicapped in this sphere, though it's a race I found a real head scratcher and readily passed over.
Spades Are Trumps should go well fresh
This is a meeting Dermot Weld targets year after year but he's only had one winner at the Festival at the time of writing and his yard in general doesn't seem to be in the best of form.
That's enough for me to swerve likely favourite Keep In Touch in the following maiden (17:30) and I was much more interested in the Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Chase at 18:00.
Bold Emperor produced a career best when hosing up by 15 lengths at Wexford last time and rise of 10lb on the back of that may not be enough to stop him if he comes here in the same sort of form.
However, that was a race that rather fell apart and he could have been a touch flattered, while the ground won't be quite as soft here, either.
Consequently, I'm siding with Spades Are Trumps, who was an emphatic winner over further at Downpatrick in mind and who looks to have been targeted at this prize.
He's a horse who struggles to put back-to-back runs together nowadays but clearly goes well fresh, so the fact he's been off for the best part of four months shouldn't be any detriment to his chances.
A rise of 8lb looks fair off the back of his last effort and he holds a sporting each-way chance in a competitive affair.
Improving Shark Bay to bring up the hat-trick
I've mentioned in this column previously that I'm a fan of 3-y-os against older horses in middle-distance and staying handicaps at this time of year, as the weight-for-age scale affords them a bit of an advantage, in my opinion.
With that in mind, I'm keen on the chances of Aidan O'Brien's Shark Bay in the Guinness Premier Handicap (18:35), who carries a 7lb penalty for a recent win but still looks reasonably treated.
A well-bred son of Australia, Shark Bay took a 1m 3f handicap at Killarney on his penultimate start but struggled a little bit dropping back in trip last time, though he still came out on top in a similar contest at Gowran.
He looks very much a stayer, so the step back up to 1m 4f on a track with a stiff finish should be very much in his favour.
The draw in 14 could have been a little kinder, though over this sort of trip he should have a decent chance to get tucked in.
Shark Bay is a young colt on the up against a field of largely exposed older horses and I'm struggling to see him out of the places.
M C Muldoon to call the tune
The final contest I'm interested in from a betting perspective is the Rockshore Irish Lager Race (20:10), which will likely see Jessica Harrington's Sandhurst go off favourite.
Whilst I have nothing against this one, his official mark of 106 is probably a bit flattering to him and I don't think he has a great deal in hand of one or two others in this conditions event, despite meeting them on better terms than in a handicap.
The Willie Mullins team are in flying form right now so I'll be siding with M C Muldoon, who hasn't been seen since bombing out as favourite for last year's Cesarewitch at Newmarket.
Clearly something went wrong there and that's why we haven't seen this one for so long, but this kind of layoff is no issue for one from the Closutton yard and the booking of Colin Keane is a positive sign of intent.