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Eight Grade 1s over two days at the Dublin Racing Festival
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Willie Mullins looks set to dominate both days once again
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Top class racing in its own right but huge Cheltenham clues to emerge
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Saturday
Mullins holds the key in curtain raiser
Race: Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle
Time: 13:15
Distance: 2m6½f
Main pointer towards: Turners Novices' Hurdle / Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
Betfair Sportsbook: Final Demand 7/42.75, Supersundae 4/15.00, Sounds Victorious 5/16.00, Jasmin De Vaux 7/18.00, BAR 10/111.00
A race that looks set to be dominated by Willie Mullins, who has five entries at the five-day declaration stage, including the first four in the antepost market!
Final Demand, a very impressive winner of his only hurdle start at Limerick just after Christmas, heads the market, and of the Mullins quintet, looks the least exposed and the one with most improvement in him. He has entries in both the Turners and Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival, and an impressive victory on Saturday will see his current odds of around 8/19.00 for each race cut dramatically.
Supersundae did best of the Mullins quartet in the Grade 1 Lawlor's Of Naas at the start of the month, but he was no match for the Gordon Elliott-trained The Yellow Clay who will bypass the Dublin Racing Festival and go straight to Cheltenham as a leading contender for whichever novice hurdle he turns up in.
It'll take a good one to challenge British duo
Race: Gannon's City Recovery Juvenile Hurdle
Time: 13:50
Distance: 2m
Main pointer towards: Triumph Hurdle
Betfair Sportsbook: Hello Neighbour 7/42.75, Sainte Lucie 5/23.50, Lady Vega Allen 3/14.00, BAR 10/111.00
The second race on the card at Leopardstown, although a Grade 1 in its own right, is effectively a Triumph Hurdle trial, and it looks set to be fought out by the Gavin Cromwell-trained Hello Neighbour, and the Mullins duo of Sainte Lucie and Lady Vega Allen.
All three are equally unexposed and hold a similar bank of form, but it was hard not to be impressed by the manner in which Sainte Lucie put the race to bed between the last two flights on her stable debut at Punchestown over Christmas. She looks like having stacks of improvement in her to come.
That said, whoever wins this race will have to do it very nicely to shake-up the Triumph Hurdle market at Cheltenham given that it is currently headed by the very impressive British pair of Lulamba and East India Dock.
Will a challenger to Sir Gino emerge?
Race: Goffs Irish Arkle Novice Chase
Time: 14:55
Distance: 2m1f
Main pointer towards: Arkle Novices' Chase
Betfair Sportsbook: Majborough 4/71.57, Ile Atlantique 11/43.75, Firefox, Touch Me not 7/18.00, BAR 16/117.00
Another race that looks set to be dominated by Willie Mullins who holds a strong hand with both the odds-on favourite Majborough and the second favourite Ile Atlantique.
One senses though, that this may well be the duo's cup final, especially in terms of the 2m novice chase ranks, given that waiting for them across the Irish Sea at the Cheltenham Festival will be the hugely talented Sir Gino.
Majborough was very impressive when thrashing talented stablemate Tullyhill at Fairyhouse in a Beginners Chase just before Christmas, and he's the most likely winner on Saturday, but he'll have to do it in very good fashion if he's to challenge 4/51.80 favourite Sir Gino at the top of the Arkle market.
Galopin towards a third Irish/Cheltenham Gold Cup
Race: Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup
Time: 15:30
Distance: 3m
Main pointer towards: Cheltenham Gold Cup
Betfair Sportsbook: Galopin Des Champs 8/111.73, Fact To File 10/34.33, Montys Star 7/18.00, Embassy Gardens 8/19.00, BAR 20/121.00
The highlight of the Dublin Racing Festival, the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup, and a familiar theme is starting to emerge in that Willie Mullins again holds the key.
His superstar chaser Galopin Des Champs will take the world of beating here, at a venue where he has won all six of his chase starts including the last two renewals of this race.
Following defeat to stablemate Fact To File on his seasonal debut in a high class John Durkan Chase, Galopin Des Champs reversed the form in emphatic fashion in the Grade 1 Savills Chase over course and distance at the Christmas meeting, prompting his odds to win a third consecutive Cheltenham Gold Cup to be cut to 4/51.80.
He is sure to go off at odds-on to win Saturday's race, and if getting the better of Fact To File again then he'll likely be one of the Irish bankers of the meeting come the Cheltenham Festival.
Sunday
Bally to burn off his rivals
Race: Ladbrokes Novice Chase
Time: 13:10
Distance: 2m5½f
Main pointer towards: Brown Advisory Novices' Chase
Betfair Sportsbook: Ballyburn 1/21.50, Champ Kiely 3/14.00, Better Days Ahead 11/26.50, Impaire Et Passe 6/17.00, Croke Park 8/19.00, BAR 20/121.00
The Grade 1 action on the second day of the Dublin Racing Festival commences in exactly the same way as the first day, with a race set to be dominated by Willie Mullins who has three of the first four in the antepost betting, including 1/21.50 favourite Ballyburn.
The 7yo was the leading novice hurdler last season, winning a trio of Grade 1s at three leading festivals, and he looked destined to be the leading novice chaser this term. He started off well, winning his Beginners Chase at Punchestown in effortless fashion, but he was soundly put in his place in the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase by Sir Gino over Christmas, who produced one of the best chase debuts in many a year.
Although facing some talented opposition on Sunday, including impressive Fairyhouse winner Champ Kiely, it will be a big surprise if Ballyburn doesn't resume winning ways. It's even less of a surprise, though, that Mullins has decided to duck Sir Gino at the Cheltenham Festival and will instead aim his star novice chaser at the Brown Advisory, for which he's a 5/23.50 favourite.
Below average renewal could throw up a surprise
Race: Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle
Time: 13:40
Distance: 2m
Main pointer towards: Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Betfair Sportsbook: Kopek Des Bordes 6/42.50, Kaid d'Authie 13/82.63, Redemption Day 7/18.00, BAR 10/111.00
The Willie Mullins dominance - in terms of the antepost markets at least - continues with another race where he has the first three in the betting, and it looks a very tough call to split Kopek Des Bordes and Kaid D'authie.
The former is unbeaten in two starts but it's hard to put a finger on what he achieved on his hurdles debut given that he won in reduced visibility due to heavy fog. He only won by just over two lengths, and his in-running comments suggest he made quite a few mistakes at his hurdles, so Sunday's race is likely to offer a lot more in terms of his potential ability.
He's been talked up very highly by Mullins, however, and despite only winning a maiden hurdle by a small margin, he's just 12/113.00 for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, a price that will vanish into thin air if he wins impressively on Sunday.
Kaid d'Authie fell on his hurdling debut before scraping home in a maiden hurdle over 2m4f - hardly the form that screams a winner of a 2m Grade 1 contest next time out - but like his stablemate he's been very highly touted and is sure to improve on Sunday. He's 14/115.00 for the Supreme.
Mullins' supposed third string, Redemption Day, was beaten out of sight as a strong favourite on his hurdling debut, so perhaps if any of the Grade 1 contests over the weekend are to throw up a surprise winner, then this may be the one.
Retrieval missions aplenty
Race: Ladbrokes Dublin Chase
Time: 14:10
Distance: 2m1f
Main pointer towards: Champion Chase
Betfair Sportsbook: Gaelic Warrior 4/61.67, Marine Nationale 4/15.00, Solness 6/17.00, El Fabiolo 8/19.00, BAR 20/121.00
It will come as no surprise that Willie Mullins has another odds-on favourite for this contest, but it's a race where three of the leading contenders are on retrieval missions after failures on their previous starts.
The hugely talented Gaelic Warrior deserves to be favourite, he's brilliant on his day but he can often thrown in a below par performance, just as he did when beaten by Solness at this venue at the Christmas meeting. There appeared to be no fluke to the victory by Solness that day, who jumped well and quickened nicely to win, but the general feeling was that he was given too much of a lead and those behind paid the price.
A peak form Gaelic Warrior will surely turn the tables, and if so he's likely to be hard to beat given that stablemate El Fabiolo hasn't been seen since a brace of defeats at Cheltenham and Sandown last season. Second favourite Marine Nationale hasn't won for over a year and was behind both Solness and Gaelic Warrior last time out.
Gaelic Warrior is 3/14.00 for the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, but that's not a price I'd be rushing to take, before or after this contest as he just appears too unreliable.
I am, however, interested in El Fabiolo's 12/113.00 quote. This is a horse that went off at 2/91.22 to win a Champion Chase three runs back. He's obviously had a few problems, but there's no better trainer in the world than Mullins to get a horse back to his best. I'll be fascinated to see how he performs on Sunday.
Lossiemouth to bounce back
Race: Irish Champion Hurdle
Time: 15:20
Distance: 2m
Main pointer towards: Champion Hurdle
Betfair Sportsbook: Lossiemouth 8/151.53, State Man 7/42.75, BAR 12/113.00
And so we come to the final Grade 1 of the weekend with the same theme as many of the other Grade 1 contests, a Willie Mullins dominance in the market.
The Irish Champion Hurdle looks to be a clash between two prolific winners, Lossiemouth and State Man - prolific winners who were both beaten last time out we must add.
Lossiemouth had been sensational at times before taking on Constitution Hill in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. She never seemed to travel that day, never looked comfortable, yet she still got to within three lengths of the former champion hurdler. However, Constitution Hill was having his first run for 12 months and he could easily have had more in the tank had Lossiemouth thrown down a more serious challenge.
State Man's defeat was slightly more worrying as he has now been beaten twice by the mare Brighterdaysahead, the most recent one a thrashing by over 30 lengths. He even finished behind stablemate Winter Fog that day and, although still only an 8yo, he does look to be regressing.
It's going to be a fascinating clash on Sunday, but my hope is that Lossiemouth is back to her best, because if so, I believe she has the potential to really challenge Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle, for which she can be backed at 7/24.50.