-
Consistent Believing can go well from kind draw
-
Japanese raider looks overpriced in Breeders' Cup Turf
-
Blockbuster filly Porta Fortuna can draw on vital experience
-
Listen to Racing...Only Bettor
Day two of the Breeders' Cup will be the focus of the racing world on Saturday and it really has attracted a card worthy of such attention.
Contenders from all over the world will be locking horns on the beautiful stage that is Del Mar and it promises to be fantastic from start to finish. For all the excitement and spectacle, the Breeders' Cup races are always a challenge to sort out from a betting perspective, but we'll give it our best shot.
The Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (19:41) is just fiercely competitive.
The Steve Asmussen-trained Cogburn comes in as the one to beat on recent form and to contextualise him in a European context, he was most recently seen dishing out a hiding to Khaadem in a valuable sprint at Kentucky Downs.
The European contingent always find it tough against the home team in this race and the draw has not been kind to either Big Evs or Bradsell. Indeed, the draw has to come into sharp focus here as this is one of the sharpest turning five-furlong turf tracks you'll see anywhere and the stats unsurprisingly show a heavy bias in favour of horses that are drawn low and/or get very prominent.
With that in mind, I'm prepared to give another chance to the George Boughey-trained Believing.
She has been a tremendous model of consistency this season, finishing in the first four five Group 1 races and winning at Group 2 level. Lady Luck hasn't always shined on her, but she has copped a low draw in stall one and even more importantly, Boughey has reached for first-time blinkers. I feel this equipment will suit her well and will give her every chance of sharpening up enough to make use of her draw. She appeals as being very solid win-and-place value at her price.
Back Believing to Win Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (19:41)
The Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (21:01) is a race full of familiar faces and it promises to be a belter. I can see cases for a bunch of these, but at the prices I feel the Japanese raider Shahryar is overpriced.
The six-year-old son of Deep Impact has been the most wonderful horse for his connections, taking them around the world multiple times and generally acquitting himself very well. He had his biggest day on the international scene when winning the Dubai Sheema Classic in 2022, but he has been bang in the mix in even more high-profile Group/Grade 1s than this such as when arguably a little unlucky to finish just third in this race last year at Santa Anita.
He ran better in his prep race for this contest than he did next year and has copped a favourable low draw. The place part of the bet makes more appeal than the win part and you can adjust accordingly based on your risk appetite, but I feel Shahryar is overpriced and represents value to run a big race.
Back Shahryar to Win Breeders' Cup Turf (21:01)
The Fanduel Breeders' Cup Mile (23:45) is another blockbuster of a contest and I think it's going to be won by a blockbuster of a filly in Porta Fortuna.
Donnacha O'Brien's stable star has been just tremendous throughout her career, but particularly so this season. A narrow defeat in the 1000 Guineas on her seasonal return has been the only blip on an otherwise perfect season. Victories in the Coronation Stakes, the Falmouth Stakes and the Matron Stakes have showcased not just her class, but her straightforward and adaptable nature that makes her such an easy watch in her races.
This will be the first time she has faced off against her opposite sex since the Phoenix Stakes last year, but she looks more than ready for it.
She also has some highly-relevant experience to draw on in her arsenal as she finished a fine second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies' Turf at Santa Anita last year. A fast-striding filly that can be ridden any number of ways and quicken on command, she is well armed for everything this test represents. The draw has been kind enough to her and she looks to have excellent prospects of finishing her memorable season on a notable high.
Back Porta Fortuna to Win Breeders' Cup Mile (23:45)
Finally, I can't write about this card without touching on the superstar in the room that is City Of Troy in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
I have found this to be a tough one, as I have been a big believer in this horse from day one and he has put together an incredible body of work through his career so far. It is an incredibly punchy move by his connections to target this race on dirt with him and it makes for a hugely-exciting sporting event to see it play out.
However, the list of Ballydoyle superstars that have tried and failed in this race makes for genuinely terrifying reading. If City Of Troy can do it, he truly will be a legend of the sport, but at the price he is, I couldn't encourage anyone to back him. I can't wait to see it.
Now read Ryan Moore on his Saturday rides at the Breeders' Cup here.