Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Lambourn fancied to strike in Epsom Derby

• Get set for a wide open Epsom Derby says Kevin Blake

• Does stride analysis suggest the market leaders are worht opposing?

• O'Brien third string has a big chance of taking Derby honours

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It's Epsom Derby day, and we have a well-backed favourite in the shape of the Aidan O'Brien trianed Delacroix. The three-year-old has finished in the top two in all seven of his career starts to date, including winning both of his starts this season, and today you can back him at the super-boosted price of 5/42.25 (from 1/31.33) just to finish in the top four!

To take advantage of this Superboost just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

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Watch Racing...Only Bettor Derby special

Widen open Derby as we enter post-Galileo era

The Derby (15:30) has been one of the centrepieces of British sport for over 200 years and despite what some will try to tell you, the magic is still very much there. 

Aidan O'Brien is the winning-most trainer in the 245-year history of the race with 10 victories. He enjoyed an unprecedented run of success during what has become known as the Galileo era, winning the race with four sons of the great sire from 2013 to 2020 and another one in the middle of that with a son of Pour Moi.

He has answered any questions as to whether he would be as dominant in the post-Galileo era by winning the last two renewals of the race with colts by Deep Impact and Justify that were both out of Galileo mares, but this year's renewal endorses the thought that the post-Galileo era will bring a renewed level of competitiveness to the division.

This is underlined by the fact that 19 runners have thrown their hat into the ring for this year's Derby. While Aidan O'Brien is well kitted out with three runners, there is no doubting that this is wide open. As it should be.

Tactics crucial with lots of pace on offer

There will be a fair amount of weather watching in the coming days, as there is a lot of localised rain due to roll through the Epsom area from Thursday through to Saturday. How lucky or unlucky they get could have a major impact on the surface, but it seems that ground on the easy side of good can be expected, if not softer.

In terms of how the race is likely to pan out, tactics will be key in this huge field. From what I can see, there looks to be a great amount of pace in the race, which promises to make it a thorough test of stamina. If the rain arrives, it could be a particularly attritional Derby. Here's how I see it playing out:

Lazy Griff (3) is a regular front runner and proven stayer, so he looks very likely to push forward from his low draw. Green Storm (8) has tended to make the running or race prominently and looks sure to buck forward with the intention of doing the same. Al Wasl Storm (13) represents the same owner and made all to win a mile-and-a-half maiden at Chester last time. While this represents a huge step up in class, his owner's representatives in this race in recent years have tended to be ridden positively even when seemingly facing a tough task, so he seems likely to push forward.

Lambourn (10) raced prominently last time and his stamina is proven, so he seems likely to be ridden positively. Sea Scout (18) has been prominent or pushed the pace in most of his starts to date and seems likely to want to get at least handy. Midak (4) has made the running in his last two starts, albeit at a steady pace, and he seems likely to want to be handy rather than more forward than that.

Tornado Alert (11) made the running in the 2000 Guineas, but seems less likely to be as forward over a 50% longer trip here. Tennessee Stud (12) has generally raced prominently and has made the running, but seems more likely to be ridden handily rather than more forwardly than that. Delacroix (14) has been racing prominently or making the running throughout his career and while his stamina is unproven over this trip, he seems likely to be at least handy.

Stanhope Gardens (2) has raced prominently for much of his career, but steps up 50% in trip here and it seems unlikely that his connections will want to be positive with him from a low draw. The Lion In  Winter (19) helped push the pace when winning the Acomb Stakes last year, but took a strong hold on his return in the Dante and his connections are likely to want to drop him in from the widest stall to help him get relaxed. 

Stride analysis suggests favs are worth taking on

Regular readers will know that I am an enthusiastic utiliser of striding analysis and races like the Derby are tailor made for this brand of assessment. Stamina is such an unknown for so many of the runners that tools beyond traditional form and pedigree analysis are highly valuable.

I delved into the reasoning in great depth in my At The Races column earlier in the week, but the conclusion is that Delacroix, Ruling Court and The Lion In Winter all have to be considered doubtful stayers based on the evidence of their striding to date. If you buy into this conclusion, it blows the race wide open from a betting perspective. 

Stud can be suited by stamina test

My focus is on horses that will stay well and the first I want to mention positively at a very big price is the Joseph O'Brien-trained Tennessee Stud.

The son of Wootton Bassett progressed run-to-run as a juvenile culminating in victory in a below-standard renewal of the Criterium de Saint-Cloud. Having taken some time to come to hand, he shaped as if in need of the run and a stronger test of stamina when a well-held third to Delacroix in a slowly-run Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown.

He seems sure to improve plenty from that and the stamina test that this race promises to present will very much suit. He wouldn't want too much rain, but the soft side of good will be fine for him. He is well drawn and looks to be a very big price.

O'Brien third string can run a big race

However, the main selection is the Aidan O'Brien-trained Lambourn.

Bizarrely, he might well prove to be the third-best of Aidan O'Brien's three runners in this race in the fullness of time, but he is by far the one that promises to be best suited by the test that this race is likely to present.

I was quite impressed with him in the Chester Vase as he was caught wide early and looked to find the track to be a bit sharp, but he was very strong all the way up the straight and was well on top at the line. This strong test of stamina is sure to suit him and he might well be able to grind his way past some speedier rivals to run a very big race.

Now read Katie Midwinter's 1-2-3-4 verdict on the Epsom Derby