The Derby: Katie Midwinter's verdict and 1-2-3-4 prediction in the Epsom Classic

• Katie Midwinter shares her prediction ahead of the Derby at Epsom

• Forgotten horse could spring a surprise

• Dante form may prove crucial

Timeform Superboost

It's Epsom Derby day, and we have a well-backed favourite in the shape of the Aidan O'Brien trianed Delacroix. The three-year-old has finished in the top two in all seven of his career starts to date, including winning both of his starts this season, and today you can back him at the super-boosted price of 5/42.25 (from 1/31.33) just to finish in the top four!

To take advantage of this Superboost just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

*Please Note. This Superboost is provided by the Betfair Sportsbook and not by any of our writers or tipsters.

Watch Racing...Only Bettor Derby special

An open Derby

The biggest field since Kris Kin's Derby in 2003, 19 colts are set to line up in the Derby with Delacroix and Ruling Court currently vying for favouritism at the head of the market. With odds currently 10/34.33 the field, this Epsom Classic has an open look about it, with the lack of a proven standout contender over the middle-distance trip in the mix.

The steadily progressive Ruling Court sets the standard on form shown, coming into the race on the back of an impressive success in the 2000 Guineas last month, and having beaten his rivals by a combined distance of 12-lengths in three victories to date.

In the Newmarket Classic, the Charlie Appleby-trained contender beat subsequent Irish 2000 Guineas winner Field Of Gold, who may have been unfortunate to be beaten that day but certainly shaped as though a step up in trip would suit, and stablemate Shadow Of Light, who will likely drop back to 6f to compete in the Commonwealth Cup on his next start.

Although Ruling Court enhanced his reputation and proved himself as a top class Group One performer, and there is evidence in his pedigree to suggest the step up to a mile-and-a-half will be within his capabilities, this is likely to be run in considerably softer conditions, with more of an emphasis on stamina rather than speed, which may leave him vulnerable.

The Aidan O'Brien factor

Delacroix won two of his five starts as a juvenile, beating Stanhope Gardens gamely to claim Group Three honours at Newmarket before being narrowly denied by Hotazhell in the Futurity Trophy Stakes, but he didn't appear to be the leading contender from Ballydoyle's potential Derby contingent at that point.

This season, the son of Dubawi has certainly enhanced his claims with two comfortable victories in Group Three company at Leopardstown, and he is on an upward trajectory, capable of showing further improvement over this extra 2f trip. He's one of the standout contenders on pedigree, being out of top-class mare Tepin, and is the pick of Ryan Moore, which would instil confidence, and, in an open race, he may turn out to be the class of the field, but he isn't as solid a chance as the yard have had in the previous two renewals.

There's little between Delacroix and Stanhope Gardens on form, and the latter remains unexposed having had only a comfortable preparation in a three-runner modest event at Salisbury this season. In comparison, however, there is a significant difference in price, suggesting perhaps the value may lie with the Ralph Beckett-trained son of promising stallion Ghaiyyath, despite the low draw from stall 2.

Forgotten juvenile form

The last two renewals have been won by the highest ranking juveniles in the field. In 2022, Auguste Rodin was the highest-rated two-year-old over a mile or further, given a rating of 118, whilst City Of Troy was 5lb clear of his nearest rival at the end of 2023, and both went on to win the Derby following disappointing efforts on their reappearances.

The Lion In Winter, alongside stablemate Expanded, matched Auguste Rodin's rating in 2024, ending the season as the highest-rated juveniles over 7f. They were both joint-third highest-rated of the juveniles, inferior only to Group One winners in Shadow Of Light and Lake Victoria, when 2lb and 1lb, respectively, behind the pair.

Whilst The Lion In Winter missed his intended Group One assignment in the Dewhurst Stakes, he did make a significant impression when winning the Group Three Acomb Stakes at York, beating a future Group Two winner in Wimbledon Hawkeye, the 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court, subsequent Group Three winner The Waco Kid, and Listed-winning Yaroogh, among others, in convincing fashion over 7f.

The son of Sea The Stars didn't reach the heights shown by his two previous Derby-winning stablemates, but he did shape with plenty of promise and the step up in trip was likely to bring out improvement in him, being out of a mile-and-a-half winning daughter of Lope De Vega. He does face a tough task from stall 19, and will need to settle much better than he did in his latest run at York, but he was supremely impressive on the Knavesmire last term, in form that has been franked, and shouldn't be discounted.

In-form colts could come to the fore

Pride Of Arras has arguably been the most impressive this year, recording a length-and-a-quarter victory at odds of 18/119.00 in the Dante Stakes on only his second start and first of the current campaign. He's another on an upward trajectory that is yet to be exposed, and shouldn't have any stamina doubts. A slight concern could possibly be the ground conditions should they become softer as his speed was impressive at York, able to quicken away from his rivals effectively, however, his dam, as well as his half siblings, are all winners on soft.

Flashy chestnut Damysus is perhaps the dark horse in the field, having shown consistency in three starts to date without announcing himself at the top table yet. He also has the benefit of a recent gallop on the track, is related to plenty of classy performers, and it would be no surprise to see the son of Frankel make the frame.

Lambourn and Lazy Griff both enhanced their Derby claims in the Chester Vase Stakes, the former impressing for Ballydoyle and justifying 11/82.38 favouritism, whilst learning plenty and shaping as though a step up in trip would suit. The latter, the 25/126.00 runner-up, performed with plenty of credit, having shown snippets of form over shorter distances as a juvenile, including when a Group Three winner at Chantilly, and his huge odds appear quite generous.

An intriguing contest

Recently supplemented French-raiders Midak and New Ground bring an added layer of intrigue to the race, and the former, who is unbeaten in three starts, would be a poignant winner as a home-bred Aga Khan colt. The latter appears with more to find having suffered two defeats this season, although far from disgraced on either occasion, stepping up to a mile-and-a-half for the first time.

Sea Scout is the only contender with the benefit of proven course form having won the Blue Riband Trial at odds of 40/141.00 here in April, but has since disappointed when eighth in the Dante Stakes. It's possible slightly easier ground conditions could prove more beneficial and he doesn't deserve to be completely ruled out after one below par effort in only his fourth career start.

Verdict:

It's a difficult race to predict because it features a number of unexposed colts, any of whom could show significant improvement on what they have achieved so far. Ruling Court is the one to beat as the sole Classic winner in the race, but conditions may not be suitable and he faces a number of rivals who come from stamina-laden families.

Delacroix demands respect as the shortest-priced contender for the leading trainer in the race, the choice of Ryan Moore after two victories this term, however, his stablemate The Lion In Winter was once strongly fancied for this Classic but is now the slightly forgotten horse in the field despite being the highest-rated juvenile of the nineteen. 

Pride Of Arras and Damysus both emerged with a huge amount of credit in the Dante Stakes, the form of which could prove worth following, whilst Lambourn looks an out-and-out stayer who will likely be suited by this test, particularly should the rain have a significant effect on the ground conditions.

Prediction:

1. The Lion In Winter

2. Damysus

3. Pride Of Arras

4. Lambourn

Now read more horse racing previews here!