Epsom Derby: Tony Calvin's two to Star at 33/1 and 40/1

• O'Brien camp confident about favourite

• Artistic Star can come alive at Epsom

• Alder to give us run for our money

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The striking aspect of the Derby market in the past 48 hours or so has been the sustained support for Auguste Rodin.

The short-priced winter favourite, Auguste Rodin, hit 10.09/1 on the Betfair Exchange straight after his 2,000 Guineas eclipse but he has recently surged to the top of the market once again and currently trades at 4.03/1.

On the face of it, that would seem extraordinarily short given he blew out completely at Newmarket and the form of his admittedly dominant Doncaster Group 1 heavy ground victory has hardly been franked this season.

But the talk in the Aidan O'Brien camp is infectious it seems, and it has increasingly permeated the market, and Auguste Rodin's pedigree does shout 1m4f more than 1m, so who are we mere mortals to question?

Well, as we put our money where our mouths are - never listen to anyone who doesn't risk their own money is the golden rule in betting - we are ideally placed and I couldn't have him on my mind at 6/1, let alone nearly half those odds. He has also never won on anything quicker than yielding ground.

Epsom ground update

Just a quick ground update, then. The going is currently good (good to firm in places) at Epsom and they will be putting on 3-5mm on Tuesday, and monitoring thereafter. They will surely be sluicing more on daily given the dry, relatively, warm forecast.

As I said in the Oaks piece yesterday, I reckon they will aim to have it on the easy side of good for Friday (certainly no quicker than good) and made a call that evening about whether to stick more water on.

I'll be working on the basis of good ground for the Derby at 13:30 on Saturday.

Military Order stronger than his Exchange odds

The Betfair Sportsbook make Auguste Rodin and Military Order their 3/1 joint favourites, though the Godolphin horse is currently very weak on the Betfair Exchange at 5.79/2, despite being the most solid horse in the field in many ways.

Like his main market rival, he is unbeaten since a debut defeat and he has impressed this season, showing a very good attitude and plenty of pace when beating Waipiro by 1 ¼ lengths in the Lingfield Derby Trial on the all-weather.

If I had to name a most likely winner, I'd probably plump for him, and 9/25.50 and bigger on the Betfair Exchange is probably fair enough.

The Dante form could well be key, though - a race in which The Foxes just chinned the slow-starter White Birch, with Passenger in third and Dear My Friend back in eighth - but I've no idea which of those four will come out best this time around.

Actually, that's a lie as Dear My Friend will not be leading the other three home, though I have to say I am puzzled that Passenger is half the price of The Foxes at 6.611/2 and a third of the odds of White Birch. The latter does not want to be sluggish in coming out of the gates around here, for all he makes up for it late on and promises to relish this 1m4f trip.

I get that Passenger experienced all kinds of trouble in running at York but he certainly didn't power home when the gap finally appeared and my immediate take was that he was a 1m2f horse, an assessment that his pedigree would tend to back up. Others disagree, but that is how I saw it. He was edging left at the line and certainly not powering through it.

Still, he could be the one for those who like their back-to-lay trades as he is a traveller.

Last October's 1m2f heavy ground Group 1 Saint-Cloud 1-2 of Dubai Mile and Arrest could well have some bearing on this race. The winner shaped very well when fifth in the Guineas and the runner-up came out and handed Adelaide River his derriere in similarly testing ground in the Chester Vase on his return.

I can see the each-way case for both, and the more water Andrew Cooper puts on the better it is for Arrest, though he is only 6/17.00 with the Sportsbook compared to [14/1 ] about Dubai Mile, and that's seems wrong (ish). They are predictably a couple of points bigger on the win-only exchange, however.

Aidan O'Brien seems set to run Chester runner-up Adelaide River and the 97-rated Covent Garden as well as the favourite, with Dee Stakes winner San Antonio heading to the French Derby on Sunday it seems.

Epsom Derby antepost bet - Artistic Star @ 40/1

The 40/1 chance Artistic Star has the only unbeaten profile in the race but his trainer was talking in Royal Ascot, King Edward VII Stakes, terms than Epsom after his Sandown novice win over 1m2f earlier this month.

It would seem that trainer Ralph Beckett initially thought this race may come too soon for him, but the fact that he was confirmed for the race on Monday suggests they may well give the race a shot, after all.

And why wouldn't they?

The betting tells you this is a very open renewal and this unbeaten colt shaped well in seeing off some fair sorts over 1m2f at Sandown - the time was good, too - and, although the dam was an Aussie sprinter, he is by Galileo and is a full brother to 1m4f winners, notably Jessie Harrington's Group 3 winner Forbearance.

To be perfectly honest with you, I had never heard of the horse until I started looking at the Derby properly on Tuesday morning and I warmed to his chance pretty quickly.

We normally associate Beckett with winning the Oaks but his Westover (who had won twice at Sandown beforehand) clearly excelled in this race when third last season and he may just have the joker in the pack here with this inexperienced late-maturer (who only had his third birthday last Saturday, being a May 27 foal).

He is one of my two bets in the race at this stage.

Harrington would bring the house down if winning this Classic given her recent cancer diagnosis and treatment and there is a hell of a lot to like about her Sprewell on the evidence of his Leopardstown Derby trial win at Leopardstown.

He is another who has yet to race on anything quicker than soft ground and he is no certainty to stay 1m4f on pedigree, but he looks a coming force and I wouldn't want to be a layer at 13.012/1 on the Betfair Exchange.

The Amo Racing trainer merry-go-round see Roger Varian get a chance with the massive unit that is King Of Steel, withdrawn from the Dante after getting upset in the stalls, and that leaves Alder as the only other horse I have not mentioned.

And when I started writing this early on Tuesday morning he was the one I intended to tip. He was trading at 55.054/1 but, annoyingly, his price has ebbed away on the Betfair Exchange ever since. That maybe because he was taken out of the French Derby on Tuesday morning.

The case for him is far from rock solid, not least because of the fact that the horse that beat him at Chester, San Antonio probably isn't even going to line up here.

But there is surely a strong possibility that he wasn't seen to best effect when a heavily-backed 11/10 runner-up in the Dee Stakes on soft ground.

He got shuffled back to last on the inner there, he had to come four wide to make his challenge and he could never get to grips with the winner, on whom Ryan Moore rode the best race.

That was clearly very underwhelming in Derby-winning terms but the suspicion was he was not at his best there, having previously oozed class when beating the subsequent London Gold Cup handicap winner Bertinelli at Cork on decent ground.

He got to within 2 ¼ lengths of Auguste Rodin over 1m at Leopardstown last season and the key to him maybe good ground, on which he won his maiden. He showed a good turn of foot at Cork, that is for sure, and his siblings relished quick conditions.

Whether he has more pace than stamina is a legitimate question after he failed to reel in the winner at Chester - as is the fact he can look a bit awkward and lug left and right (an obvious worry here) but he is by stamina influence Australia and I think he could come alive on Saturday as long as they don't over-water.

Epsom Derby Antpost bet - Alder @ 33/1 e-w

I am going to back Alder at 33/1 each-way as well as Artistic Star at 40/1 win-only, so they are my ante-post recommendations with the Sportsbook. The latter is trading at 50.049/1 on the exchange as this column goes live, but the fixed-odds 40/141.00 is the fairer, and more realistic, recommendation.

Fingers crossed, they at least come out of the gates on Saturday afternoon and give us a run for our money.

Beckett could have a change of heart, as may connections of Alder - or either could pick up a late problem - but that is the risk of ante-post betting.

I did consider putting up Artistic Star each-way as well and I may press up win and place later in the week after the final field and the draw is known, and with an extra place likely to be on offer, too.

Finally, I have just read an interview with Beckett, who says it is indeed full steam ahead with his horse on Saturday.

In the piece, he pointed out his Look Here won the Oaks on just her third start (having been beaten in her prep), so let's hope the bold approach works once again for the ever-combative Ralph.

Good luck.