Epsom Derby and Oaks

Epsom Derby Runner-by-Runner Guide: Get on board with Passenger at 9/2

  • Mark Milligan
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 5:00 min read
Epsom
Mark Milligan has looked at every runner in the Derby field

Mark Milligan has a taken an in-depth look at Saturday's Derby and gives us his runner-by-runner guide to the race...

  • Mark Milligan's guide for the Derby at 13:30

  • Swerve Ryan Moore's Auguste Rodin

  • Back Passenger at 9/25.50 to win


1 - ADELAIDE RIVER (Draw 14) T: Aidan O'Brien J: TBC

Won a Dundalk maiden on debut and was placed several times in decent company throughout the rest of his juvenile. However, was put well in his place by Arrest in the Chester Vase last time and needs to take a significant step forward on that form to be a contender here.

2 - ARREST (Draw 16) T: John & Thady Gosden J: Frankie Dettori

A rangy son of Frankel who won in maiden and novice company as a 2-y-o before losing out narrowly to Dubai Mile in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his final 2022 start. Returned in impressive fashion when hosing up in the Chester Vase on heavy ground last month and is a big player if able to reproduce that on a sounder surface.

3 - ARTISTIC STAR (Draw 8) T: Ralph Beckett J: Rob Hornby

Unbeaten son of Galileo has done nothing wrong in both starts to date, winning a maiden at Nottingham in October before returning with a straightforward success in novice company at Sandown 18 days ago. Short on experience but is very unexposed and has the pedigree to suggest he won't be out of place in this company. A lively outsider.

4 - AUGUSTE RODIN (Draw 10) T: Aidan O'Brien J: Ryan Moore

One of the best 2-y-os around last season, this son of Deep Impact racked up a hat-trick when taking a maiden, the Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown and the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster. Has obvious claims on those successes but his return in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket was an abject one and he has questions to answer after that. He could still be very good but I'm looking elsewhere.

5 - DEAR MY FRIEND (Draw 1) T: Charlie Johnston J: Andrea Atzeni

Won his first two starts as a juvenile and returned with a success in listed company at Newcastle on All-Weather Championships day. Was well held when stepping up in class in the Dante last time and will need to improve considerably on that to figure here. Hard to make a strong case for.

6 - DUBAI MILE (Draw 5) T: Charlie Johnston J: Daniel Muscutt

Won a pair of novice races at Windsor and Kempton last season before going on to narrowly beat Arrest in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his final juvenile outing. Returned with a fine fifth-place finish in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, where he was tapped for toe as much as anything dropping back to 1m. Should stay the Derby trip and has sound claims.

7 - KING OF STEEL (Draw 4) T: Roger Varian J: Kevin Stott

The only one in the field making his seasonal debut, King Of Steel is one of the least experienced too, with only two starts under his belt. He took a maiden at Nottingham on debut before being well held by Auguste Rodin in the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster on his only other start. Connections clearly hold him in some regard but this is a big ask.

8 - MILITARY ORDER (Draw 9) T: Charlie Appleby J: William Buick

A full-brother to 2021 winner Adayar, Military Order represents the same connections and has charted a similar route this season, going one better than his sibling when taking the Lingfield Derby Trial on his most recent start. That came on the back of a pair of successes in novice company and this son of Frankel is very much on the upgrade. Right up there towards the top of the shortlist.

9 - PASSENGER (Draw 7) T: Sir Michael Stoute J: Richard Kingscote

Another short on experience but not on talent, Passenger should arguably be coming into this unbeaten in two starts having had a nightmare passage in the Dante at York last time. The chances are he'd have won that if getting a better run through and connections made the decision to supplement him for this race at the start of this week. Should go close for last year's winning trainer/jockey combination.

10 - SAN ANTONIO (Draw 12) T: Aidan O'Brien J: TBC

This son of Dubawi won an all-weather maiden on seasonal return at Dundalk in March before following up in the Dee Stakes at Chester last time, beating Alder by just short of 2 lengths. There were only 6 runners in that race and it looks one of the weaker trials run this spring, so it's likely he'll need to step up markedly on that.

11 - SPREWELL (Draw 6) T: Mrs J Harrington J: Shane Foley

Sprewell was much improved when winning the Derby Trial at Leopardstown last time, coming home 3 lengths to the good of Up And Under and breaking Ballydoyle's recent stranglehold on that particular race. That form entitles him to plenty of respect and there's enough in his pedigree to suggest he'll stay this trip. Not ruled out.

12 - THE FOXES (Draw 11) T: Andrew Balding J: Oisin Murphy

The winner of a maiden at Goodwood and the Royal Lodge Stakes at Ascot as a juvenile, The Foxes then improved again when second in the Craven at Newmarket on his seasonal return. He built on that with success in the Dante at York last time, where he had a much better trip than the unlucky Passenger. Entitled to respect but not guaranteed to confirm that form.

13 - WAIPIRO (Draw 11) T: Ed Walker J: Tom Marquand

Still unexposed with just three starts under his belt, Waipiro wasn't beaten far into second By Military Order in the Derby Trial at Lingfield last time and another step forward can't be ruled out. While he's clearly got a bit of work to do to reverse the form with Charlie Appleby's runner, he's still open to progression and shouldn't be dismissed lightly, for all he's quite a big price.

14 - WHITE BIRCH (Draw 2) T: John Joseph Murphy J: Colin Keane

White Birch was doing his best work at the finish when second to The Foxes in the Dante at York last time, taking a while to hit full stride but finishing off to good effect. It would hardly be the biggest surprise were he to reverse that form and he looks the type to relish an extra couple of furlongs. May not be quite good enough but can't fault those who want to give him a go at double-figure odds.

Epsom Derby Verdict

Auguste Rodin was favourite for this race throughout the winter on the back of his 2-y-o form and still heads the market despite his poor showing in the 2000 Guineas. He makes little appeal to me at the prices and I'm prepared to look elsewhere.

I was very keen on PASSENGER for the Dante last time and he never really got the chance to show what he could do there, in a pocket for moist of the straight before only getting a run when the race was all but over.

I'm encouraged that connections have decided to stump up a hefty fee to supplement him for this race, and while it's not a given that he'll fully stay the Derby trip, I think there's enough in his pedigree to suggest he'll be fine with it.

Back Passenger to win the Derby

9/2

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Mark Milligan avatar

Mark Milligan

Mark Milligan is a Senior Horse Racing Analyst with Timeform Sporting Life and has been contributing to Betting.Betfair since 2021.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.