Derby Day Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's taking 33/1 Artistic to Star in Epsom Derby

• Three bets for Tony Calvin on Derby Day at Epsom

• Going in again on 40/141.00 ante-post Derby tip

• 18/119.00 and 5/16.00 bets elsewhere on Epsom's card

• Note: Epsom Derby to commence at 13:30 on Saturday

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Ante-post punting can be infuriating at the best of times - as soon as you have the bet, the doubts immediately kick in as to whether the horse will even make it to the start line - and I was sitting there fuming on Thursday morning waiting for Alder to be confirmed for the Derby.

And waiting. And waiting.

10am came and went, along with my 33/134.00 each way bet and tip from Tuesday, so I will start this column with an apology to all those readers who took my advice and have done their money in cold blood.

There was no hint of a problem or change of heart before his surprise no-show due to "a less than perfect scope" - I reckon the horse will be fine very soon - and I am genuinely gutted for those who have done their dough without a run.

Other people operate differently, but it is important to acknowledge when these things happen, similar to highlighting losing runs in copy. When it doesn't matter anymore it is time to give up.

Epsom - 13:30: Back Artistic Star (e/w)

Anyway, you will be reading and hearing a lot in the next 24 hours about how open a Derby it is this year - correction, make that a very open Derby - and unfortunately I am now left with just my other win-only, ante-post swing from Tuesday, 40/141.00 chance Artistic Star.

I'll reprise the case for him shortly but you can read Tuesday's full ante-post piece in full on this link if you so wish.

I won't go through all the runners once again (the ante-post piece mentioned all the entries, and in fact we lost just two, Alder and Covent Garden, at the overnight stage) but suffice to say I cannot have Auguste Rodin on my mind at all, even at his drifting 4.94/1 on the exchange - in recent decades horses just haven't won the Derby after running that poorly the start before - and I don't massively rate the Dante form, from which the front three of the eighth re-oppose here.

I also have York joint-third Passenger down as a dubious stayer, for all he may well turn out to be the best of these further down the line. At 1m2f, perhaps.

Military Order is Mr Solid at the top of the market, as a ground-versatile horse proven over the trip and being a brother to a Derby winner in Adayar no less.

We won't really know until after the Oaks on Friday about how the ground is truly riding after a long watering process stretching back to May 17, but I really hope it is no slower than good and on the quick side would be fair to all.

With no overnight watering, it must be set to ride nearly good to firm on Saturday, with Oaks day running taking the brunt of the irrigation.

That wouldn't be preferable to the likes of Sprewell, who has done all his running in testing ground (I did like his Leopardstown win though, and he was third on my ante-post shopping list on Tuesday), but it should suit Artistic Star if you listen to the trainer, though it is an unknown.

Artistic Star is the only unbeaten colt in the race (not that it means a great deal, to be honest) and I thought he shaped very well in winning over 1m2f at Sandown in a good time on his reappearance. He was strong at the line.

And although the dam was an Aussie sprinter, he is by Galileo and is a full brother to 1m4f winners, notably Jessie Harrington's Group 3-winning mare Forbearance, so the extra 2f will hopefully be fine for him, too. Not only fine, but preferable.

He only had his third birthday last Saturday, being a May 27 foal, so let's hope this youngster is ready to bloom. This test may come too soon for him, and he is rated a mere 98 (the lowest in the field), but I'll take my chance at the price.

He has only done his racing with ease in the ground so far, but his trainer Ralph Beckett doesn't feel the quicker surface will be an issue and he also pointed out that the aforementioned Forbearance excelled on good to firm.

I did toy with going in again with a fresh tip, but I'll lick my wounds and rely on Artistic Star.

In fact, I am going to double-down on that selection, and recommend him at 33/134.00 each way with the Sportsbook now they are offering four places.

He was 40/141.00 before, annoyingly as ever, he was cut into 33/134.00 early on Friday morning - I rather showed my hand on the Racing Only Bettor podcast on Thursday - but 33/134.00 is acceptable. I will probably press-up win-only on the exchange too, as I can see easily him going off at 60.059/1 plus there.

Remember the Derby kicks off at 13:30 this year.

Epsom - 12:50: Back Marie's Diamond

The opener at 12:50 looked a nasty six-runner Diomed Stakes - and probably still is - but I wouldn't rule out a shock in the shape of Marie's Diamond.

As with Artistic Star, his current rating of 96 is some way detached from the rest of the field but that could be misleading as he was on a mark of 113 at his 2020 best (some 3lb higher than Highland Avenue, the top-rated in here) and he ran a stormer when just nabbed close home over an extended 1m2f at York last time in a good handicap.

Given all his best form has come at a mile, I was amazed he hung on so long.

Yes, he has failed to trouble the judge in three visits to this meeting, including when sixth of seven in this race in 2021, and that York run only came off a mark of 95.

However, none of his five higher-rated rivals have what you might call a solid profile and I can see him grabbing the rail and lead from stall one, seeing off his pace rival Highland Avenue, and holding on.

Certainly, the step down from an extended 1m2f to just 1m113yd on quickening ground will help in that regard. And I was pleasantly surprised to see he was still just a 7yo; he seems to have been around for yonks.

He briefly opened up at 22/123.00 on Thursday morning - and that was trumped by an outlandish 25/126.00 later in the day, which actually still lingers, as does 20/121.00 - but I am happy to back him at 19.018/1 or bigger to small stakes. And it will be a small bet for me. I'll settle at Betfair SP anyway.

Epsom - 14:10: No Bet

Unfortunately, we have yet another six-runner race to go at with the Group 3 fillies and mares' Princess Elizabeth Stakes at 14:10, and it becomes even less appealing to me when the two market leaders are clearly the ones to beat.

Prosperous Voyage, an unpenalised Group 1 winner who has won around here and who is easily forgiven her reappearance run on unsuitably soft ground over 1m1f, is obviously the most solid as last year's runner-up Potapova pulled up on her comeback (she was found to have irregular heartbeat), but I can't get overly-excited by her price at 7/42.75.

Mind you, I wouldn't like to lay it, so that is a very fair assessment.

If her jockey does opt to go forward then he could well be shadowed by Roman Mist and Random Harvest, so that is another thing to bear in mind if punting her.

Epsom - 14:45 - No Bet

How kind of Epsom and ITV to put three sprint handicaps on their Saturday card. It is good in one way as I can deal with them all pretty swiftly, especially the 5f jobbers.

The 14-runner 3yo 5f Dash at 14:45 is full of horses that not only like to race prominently but want to dominate. I counted potential leaders in 1,2,4,6,8,9 12 and 13, so god knows how this race will unravel.

Estate appealed most as at least he has course experience (the only one as far as I could see, and he has also been around tricky tracks like Brighton, Chester and Bath), he won snugly last time, from Betweenthesticks, when tried in a first-time tongue-tie and will like the fast (ish) ground again.

The 8/19.00 or so about him on the exchange is fair - he may have gone up 5lb to 77 for the narrow Salisbury win, but he was rated 82 after his first three juvenile starts and the handicapper was far too eager to drop him to 72 - but this is an absolute minefield of a race and it is not hard to see Oisin Murphy struggling for racing room from seven at the business end as he picks his way through rivals.

He has raced prominently but he may have to settle for a midfield pitch in this burn-up.

Epsom - 15:20: No Bet

The course is really pushing it with another 5f "Dash" for 4yo+ at 15:20 - have the sponsors Aston Martin branched out into bookmaking? - especially as we have 20 runners to contend with here.

This has "leave me alone" written all over it.

If you wanted a token selection at around 12/113.00 then it is Mokaatil, three-time course winner (including this race in 2021) and fourth here last year, and the cheekepieces are back on, but no way am I having a bet in this race.

From his midfield stall in 11, it is not hard to see Mokaatil's 7lb claimer having a nightmare passage.

Epsom - 15:55: No Bet

If I am hopeful of a big run from Artistic Star in the Derby then I really should be fancying Torito off a mark of just 95 in the 3yo 1m2f handicap at 15:55.

He ran Artistic Star to 1 ½ lengths off levels at Sandown last time and he is related to a whole host of very good horses, including the stable's Group 1 winners Journey and Indigo Girl.

This will easily be the quickest ground he has raced on but Rab Havlin said he "will be better on better ground" after an unimpressive win on soft at Nottingham the time before.

The current 7.06/1 about him on the exchange could easily be half that if - and it's a very big if, considering he is a 40/141.00 poke with loads to find - Artistic Star runs well in the Derby, but I will pass.

As all these 3yo handicaps tend to be in the opening months of the season, this is a pretty deep race, and he does need to go and prove his worth on different ground, whatever Havlin said. And this highly talented family are also quirky sorts who have tended to need a hood to shine.

There have also been a few nibbles already for some of his rivals, including Fox Journey and Balance Play.

The latter does look rather well treated off 81 given the first and third have franked the form of his Salisbury second last month and he is a well-related individual who changed hands for 260,000gns as a foal and 280,000gns as a yearling.

Epsom - 16:30: No Bet

Unless I am dreaming things, I am sure Caius Chorister was in the Coronation Cup at the five-day stage (I was being lazy so I checked and she was). Obviously, that was just in case the Group 1 cut up badly and there was some easy prize-money and black-type going, so it is probably neither here nor there.

However, her progression last season from a mark of 52 to 99, including two course wins, was deeply impressive stuff and the fact that she arguably ran a career-best when second here on her return, over 1m2f on deep ground she probably didn't relish, is a good sign.

As is the fact that the lead is probably hers if her jockey wants it, as I couldn't see any other guaranteed pace.

I don't think she is a bad price at 3/14.00, as the step back up in trip on better ground will suit, but Scampi and Max Mayhem are just two dangerous rivals - and I am actually wary of the two Ian Williams outsiders at the bottom of the weights, Haliphon and Green Team, both with cheekpieces re-fitted, as well - so I won't be getting involved here either.

Epsom - 17:05: Back Mr Wagyu

I will be playing in the 6f handicap at 17:05, which surprised me, I can tell you.

Again, I am wary of another Williams' horse and in this case it is the visored-first-time Night On Earth, who is ideally berthed to try to make all from trap one.

He has also been rapidly falling down the handicap and he didn't run at all badly when last of four at Windsor over 5f earlier in the week. And he won after just a five-day break at Nottingham last August, so the quick turnaround could be a plus.

But nearly all of the available evidence suggests 5f is his trip, not 6f, even around here, and there are also five other forward-goers in the race if he is not bang on his game coming out of the stalls. I may have a little back-to-lay trade on him, though.

This could all set up very nicely for last year's winner Mr Wagyu, who has come down 5lb for just three runs this season, despite running much better, and actually shaping very well, at York last time when beaten just three lengths in a 21-runner handicap.

A mark of 96 is surely ripe to be exploited.

This could actually be a repeat of last year when he benefitted from a pace collapse and the closers swooped.

While he is still 2lb higher than when winning this handicap in a photo off 94 last year, he went on to finish fourth in the Wokingham and land a valuable Curragh prize, after which he was rated 106.

This is his time of year, and he is ready to strike after three pipe-openers. He is a rare sprint handicap bet for me at 6.05/1 or bigger as I like the cut of his jib and the handicapper's generosity. He is also 5/16.00 with the Sportsbook, who are paying four places, and that is probably the place to back him now. Each-way is actually a very attractive bet at those odds.

Go well.

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